Global renewable power capacity is forecast to grow by 4.6TW by 2030 — double the deployment in 2019-24 — driven by solar power installations, energy watchdog the IEA said today.
Solar will account for around 80pc of the increase, the IEA said in its Renewables 2025 report. But the agency has lowered its global renewable energy growth forecast for 2025-30 by 5pc compared with last year, "to reflect policy, regulatory and market changes" mainly in the US and China, it said. The revision amounts to 248GW less in renewable capacity commissioned in 2025-30.
In the agency's main scenario, global annual renewable capacity additions increase to nearly 890GW in 2030 from 683GW in 2024. Solar and wind power will account for almost all of this, at 96pc, through to 2030 as "they are the most affordable options to add new capacity in almost every country in the world", the IEA said. Renewables will become "the largest global energy source, used for almost 45pc of electricity generation by 2030", it said.
And it expects renewables to surpass coal to become the largest source of electricity generation worldwide either by the end of this year, or by mid-2026 at the latest, dependent on hydropower availability, it said.
Global renewable power capacity additions grew by 22pc to almost 685GW in 2024 — a record high.
"Despite increasing policy uncertainty and ongoing regulatory challenges, 2025 is expected to be another record year, with capacity additions reaching over 750GW in the main case and 840GW in the accelerated case," the IEA said.
Still, it said the world is likely to fall short of the commitment made at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in 2023, to treble renewable capacity in 2022-30 to around 11.5TW.
In the agency's main scenario, policy and market developments lift renewable capacity to 9.53TW in 2030 — a 2.6-times increase from 2022, but short of the pledge. The IEA's accelerated case sees capacity at 10.4TW in 2030, bridging more of the gap. But this will only happen if "countries minimise policy uncertainties, reduce permitting timelines, increase investment in grid infrastructure… and de-risk financing," the report noted.
Regional forecasts vary
The IEA revised down the forecast for the US by nearly 50pc compared with last year, based on the phase-out of federal tax incentives and other regulatory changes, such as the halting of permits and approvals for wind and solar projects in federal land or waters.
But it still expects the country to add nearly 250GW of renewable capacity in 2025-30, mostly solar and wind projects.
China "continues to account for nearly 60pc of global renewable capacity growth", and is on track to reach a 2035 wind and solar target of around 3.6TW five years ahead of schedule, the IEA said. China's wind and solar capacity exceeded 1.4TW at the end of 2024, higher than its 2030 target of 1.2TW.
But the agency has revised down by 5pc the forecast for China, based on policy changes. China's move in May from fixed tariffs to auctions has had the effect of "impacting project economics and lowering growth expectations," the IEA said.
Elsewhere, "the outlook for renewables is more positive" in India, Europe and "most emerging and developing economies", the report found. India's renewables capacity is set to increase by 2.5 times in five years, based in part on new support for rooftop solar and faster hydropower permitting. The IEA revised upwards its forecast for the Middle East and north Africa by 25pc, owed to "rapid" solar power growth in Saudi Arabia. Solar and wind deployment is also "accelerating" in southeast Asia, the IEA said.
