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Opec sees gasoline driving 2026 oil demand growth

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 13/10/25

Opec kept its global oil demand and supply forecasts unchanged in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released today, but added new detail on product-level consumption, highlighting jet fuel as a key contributor in 2025 and gasoline leading growth in 2026.

The group continues to expect oil demand to rise by 1.29mn b/d to 105.14mn b/d in 2025, and by a further 1.38mn b/d to 106.52mn b/d in 2026. It made small downward revisions to its 2025 demand growth projections for China and India compared with last month's report, but stronger forecasts for other parts of Asia, as well as Africa and Latin America, offset the changes, keeping the overall non-OECD growth estimate broadly steady at around 1.2mn b/d.

Jet/kerosine is forecast to lead global demand growth in 2025, rising by 380,000 b/d year-on-year, followed by diesel and gasoline at 300,000 b/d and 280,000 b/d, respectively. LPG and naphtha are expected to add a combined 510,000 b/d, driven by petrochemical demand, while heavy distillates are projected to decline by 120,000 b/d.

For 2026, gasoline is forecast to lead growth at 430,000 b/d, followed by jet/kerosine at 360,000 b/d. Diesel demand growth is projected to slow to 190,000 b/d. LPG and naphtha demand is forecast to increase by a combined 400,000 b/d.

On the supply side, Opec left its non-Opec+ output growth forecasts unchanged, at 810,000 b/d in 2025 and 630,000 b/d in 2026, led by the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina.

Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — rose by 630,000 b/d on the month to 43.05mn b/d in September, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus. The group estimates the call on Opec+ crude at 42.5mn b/d in 2025 and 43.1mn b/d in 2026, unchanged from its previous report.


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10/11/25

EPA does not update court on biofuel timing: Correction

EPA does not update court on biofuel timing: Correction

Corrects government shutdown's impact on court deadlines, and updates with new information throughout. New York, 10 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration did not update a court on its timeline for finalizing new biofuel blend mandates, as a partial government shutdown slows down court cases and regulatory work. Biofuel groups Clean Fuels Alliance America and Growth Energy have repeatedly sued the administration over its delays, hoping that a court will require the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set new biofuel quotas before year-end. Judge Timothy Kelly of the US District Court for the District of Columbia ordered the administration to provide an update on its timeline by 7 November. But in a filing that evening, the biofuel groups said they had not heard back from government lawyers. No timing update was provided. "It is the understanding of Clean Fuels and Growth Energy that counsel for defendants may currently be furloughed," they told the court. Kelly ordered the update before the ongoing partial government shutdown began. The DC district court later said in a general order that it would give the government more time to respond across all civil cases because of the funding lapse. Government lawyers had previously warned courts that the shutdown would sideline critical officials and make it hard to meet deadlines. But the government's lack of response to biofuel groups in the case is still raising fears of more prolonged delays updating a program that is important for producers of ethanol, renewable diesel and other biofuels and is popular among powerful farm-state Trump allies in Congress. EPA told Argus it was reviewing comments on its plan to make oil companies offset past program exemptions and "continues to work on final regulations" to establish new blend mandates. In past cases over biofuel program deadlines, biofuel groups and federal officials have negotiated new timelines or judges have ordered EPA to act by a set date. Clean Fuels said it would continue to ask the DC court to expedite the case and require the agency to publish a final regulation by year-end. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, EPA requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy credits from those that do. The program is crucial for the production margins of ethanol, renewable diesel and other biofuels and is popular among powerful farm-state Trump allies in Congress. EPA — required by law to set new mandates 14 months in advance of a new year — is late setting new quotas for 2026 and 2027. Even before the shutdown, the Trump administration told the DC court that developing a complicated plan to offset the impact of small refinery exemptions meant it might not be able to finalize new blend mandates until next year . Biofuel advocates fear that further delays would mean less ambitious final quotas, another hurdle for biorefineries that have cut run rates this year and for farmers hurting from this year's tariff fights. EPA has indeed been more cautious in the past when finalizing retroactive mandates since oil companies have less notice on volumes they must bring to market. Lawyers and lobbyists who closely track the program have also told Argus that delays raise the chance that major program updates — like a plan to halve program credits for fuels made abroad or from foreign feedstocks — are at least pushed back. Oil refiners have argued the half-credit idea is illegal and questioned how EPA could roll out a new feedstock tracking system in a matter of weeks. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Blending raises WTI quality concerns


10/11/25
10/11/25

Blending raises WTI quality concerns

Houston, 10 November (Argus) — Rising levels of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and corrosive additives are being blended into Permian light sweet WTI crude, prompting concerns about inconsistent quality in the absence of an agreed market standard. NGLs and other additives are being blended into WTI early in the production process as part of efforts to maintain profitability in the face of lower crude prices and rising production costs. But the higher NGL levels being blended upstream are increasingly causing problems downstream. One key problem is the lack of an acknowledged market standard for the amount of butane allowed in Permian WTI, participants heard at a Crude Oil Quality Association (COQA) meeting in San Antonio, Texas, in early October. Since NGLs occur naturally, it is also difficult to determine where the additional volumes are being introduced along the delivery line, conference participants heard. COQA efforts in the past led to industry adoption of light-end limits for Nymex-deliverable domestic crude and light sweet grade LLS. Elevated butane levels lighten a crude, but some refineries are not equipped to handle grades with a higher level of light-end yields, and this can lead to capacity bottlenecks at their processing units. Crude blended with NGLs can also take up more pipeline space relative to standard crude. Mercaptans — naturally occurring sulphur compounds — have also become a quality concern, although there is a lack of consensus on how the problem is arising. Mercaptans are harder to treat and remove than other impurities, pose corrosion risks and damage refinery catalysts. High mercaptan levels can make it harder to produce lighter products that meet quality specifications. The jet fuel produced can exceed the regulated maximum amount of sulphur. WTI volumes accepted in the North Sea Dated benchmark-setting process have a mercaptans limit of 75ppm. A US-wide standard has yet to be adopted, although some US pipelines from the Permian use the 75ppm limit to better align standards, including Plains' 600,000 b/d Epic and Phillips 66's 900,000 b/d Gray Oak to Corpus Christi lines. Plains recently informed shippers that it will charge a 50¢/bl premium if WTI mercaptans exceed the 75ppm limit on its lines. WTI intended for export also has to meet stricter quality specifications in relation to several metals and has an upper limit for Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), which can be affected by increased NGLs blending. Variability in gravity, sulphur, mercaptans, metals and RVP levels can undermine export demand for WTI. Zinc contamination Quality issues are not limited to WTI. Elevated zinc levels in offshore US Gulf medium sour Mars led to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve having to provide a crude loan to ExxonMobil. The problem also contributed to the widest discounts for Mars against Nymex-quality WTI since December. Chevron found that the quality problem was connected to the start-up of a new offshore well, but not before the contamination had disrupted trade. The Shell-operated Mars pipeline system comingles crude from a variety of deepwater US Gulf oil fields, which it carries into the Mars stream. Reports of unexpected wax content in onshore US crude also suggest that Uinta Basin crude is sometimes entering the onshore mix. Uinta Basin crude contains high levels of paraffin and is mostly transported by rail because otherwise it needs to be moved in heated pipelines. As crude prices soften, Permian wells mature and drilling shifts to less optimal rock formations, some quality variability seems likely and blending may increase, which could present more problems for refiners in the future. By Amanda Smith and Mykah Briscoe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Rising German gasoil prices pressure demand


10/11/25
10/11/25

Rising German gasoil prices pressure demand

Hamburg, 10 November (Argus) — Inland heating oil and diesel prices in Germany rose last week, driven by a rally in Ice gasoil futures. The increases curbed buying interest from consumers. Ice front-month gasoil futures climbed above $800/t on 7 November — their highest since early July 2024. The rise equates to about €7.30/100 litres. National average prices for heating oil and diesel in Germany increased at a more moderate pace, up by around €4/100l, but still reached their highest since late June. Gasoline prices saw a smaller increase of about €1.40/100l. Traders said higher prices are deterring buyers. Subdued demand also explains the smaller rise in domestic prices compared with futures. High domestic refinery utilisation is helping cap inland price increases in Germany, with only the 187,000 b/d Godorf refinery currently in partial shutdown. Calculated German greenhouse gas (GHG) costs for diesel fell by nearly €1/100l last week, further weighing on prices. The drop reflects lower prices for hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and GHG certificates. Arbitrage conditions for US gasoil exports to Europe worsened in October. But the arbitrage window reopened last week as Ice futures rose, potentially allowing US flows to Europe to resume in the coming weeks — assuming fundamentals remain stable. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q: Update


07/11/25
07/11/25

Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q: Update

Updates with investment plans in paras 3-4 and explorations plans in paras 8-9 Rio de Janeiro, 7 November (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras' investments increased by 24pc in the third quarter from a year earlier, as the firm continues to focus on production in the offshore pre-salt. Petrobras spent $5.5bn in capital expenditure (capex) in July-September, of which $4.7bn was for exploration and production. Of this investment in exploration and production, $2.7bn went to developing production of the pre-salt cluster in the Santos basin, particularly the construction of seven new floating production, storage and offloading units that will serve the Buzios, Atapu and Sepia fields. A further $900mn went to developing production in the Campos basin's pre- and post-salt, and $500mn went to exploration. Total investments over the first nine months of the year were $14bn, a 29pc increase on the same period last year. The company has speeded up investment execution due to projects being brought forward, rather than higher costs, and is on track to meet guidance by year's end, directors said. Capex guidance for 2025 as outlined in Petrobras' 2025-2029 business plan is $18.5bn. The firm is due to present an updated plan at the end of November. There are no plans to cut investments next year, said the director for engineering, technology and innovation, Renata Baruzzi. Petrobras posted a profit of R32.7bn ($6bn) in the third quarter, a 0.5pc increase on the same quarter last year and 23pc more than in the previous quarter. Higher crude production as well as stronger crude exports and domestic sales of diesel drove the third quarter result, Petrobras said. It also cited a small rallying of oil prices, with the price of Brent growing by 2pc compared with the second quarter, and lower operational costs, as contributing factors. The company's board approved a payout of R12.16bn ($2.3bn) to shareholders, or R0.9432/share, down from R1.3282/share a year earlier. Dividends will be paid in two installments, in February and March. Exploration going forward Petrobras celebrated receiving regulatory approval last month to drill an exploratory well in the Foz do Amazonas basin off Brazil's northern coast. This is the most coveted area in the equatorial margin, a new oil frontier which could contain reserves similar to those found off Guyana. The company hopes to find oil in this first well, named Morpho, but if not it will continue exploration, director for exploration and production Sylvia Anjos said. "We are already planning for eight wells in the region," she said. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US EPA grants more waivers from biofuel quotas


07/11/25
07/11/25

US EPA grants more waivers from biofuel quotas

New York, 7 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today granted small refiners even more exemptions from federal biofuel blend mandates, raising the stakes of a debate about whether larger oil companies should shoulder more of the burden. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted two full exemptions from the program's annual blend requirements, halved obligations in response to 12 petitions, and denied two others. The agency requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend biofuels or buy credits from those who do, though small facilities that process 75,000 b/d or less can request program waivers that can save them tens of millions of dollars. The agency used the same methodology as its sweeping August decision , which responded to a historic backlog of petitions and granted most refiners some relief from years of mandates. New petitions poured in afterwards, including from refiners that had not requested waivers in years. And more decisions could come soon, with EPA committing Friday to "address new petitions as quickly as possible" and to try to meet a legal requirement to decide requests within 90 days. Farm and biofuel groups fear that widespread waivers curb demand for their products and have lobbied the Trump administration to follow through on a plan to make oil companies without exemptions blend more biofuels in future years to offset past exemptions for their smaller rivals. Particularly for higher-cost products like renewable diesel and biogas, any dip in demand can prompt biorefineries to slash output. The debate has intensified in recent weeks after a refiner granted generous exemptions in August announced plans to convert a renewable diesel unit back to crude. "The impact on biofuel and agriculture markets will be devastating" without compensating for these exemptions in future biofuel quotas, said Geoff Cooper, president of the ethanol lobby Renewable Fuels Association. EPA already planned on estimating future exemptions from 2026-2027 requirements when finalizing biofuel mandates those years. But the agency has added more work to its plate with a subsequent plan to force large oil refiners to compensate for either all or half of the biofuel volumes lost to actual and expected exemptions from 2023-2025 requirements. The impact of older exemptions is less significant since the credits are expired. The challenge for EPA is that small refiners can submit new or revised petitions at any time, including for years-old mandates. That makes it hard for EPA to accurately forecast future exemptions, and biofuel groups have feared that the agency could muddle the effects of its "reallocation" plan by underestimating volumes ultimately lost to program waivers. Indeed, EPA with its Friday decisions has already waived more requirements than it predicted earlier this year. The agency last forecast that exemptions from 2023 and 2024 mandates would amount to around 1.4bn Renewable Identification Number credits (RINs) of lost demand — but now, the waivers have already reduced obligations those years by 1.92bn RINs, according to program data. If EPA sticks to its plans, that means large refiners will have to blend an even greater share in future years than expected. But if the Trump administration waters down its reallocation idea, biofuel demand could sink more than previously forecast too. There is also the risk that EPA underestimates exemptions for the 2025 compliance year. EPA last forecast that exemptions from those requirements will amount to 780mn RINs of lost demand but has not yet decided any of the 12 pending petitions for that year. Many more requests are likely. Small refiners add to their winnings The August exemptions were a windfall for some oil companies. HF Sinclair, which owns multiple small refineries, last week reported $115mn from lower compliance costs as well as a $56mn indirect benefit from "commercial optimization" of its RIN credit position. And HF Sinclair won more Friday, winning full waivers from 2023 and 2024 biofuel mandates for the "east" section of a larger 125,000 b/d complex in Tulsa, Oklahoma that before September had not previously requested relief in at least three years. The company also won partial relief for two other units from 2021 mandates. Phillips 66 won four years of partial relief for its 66,000 b/d Montana facility, as did Big West Oil for its 35,000 b/d Utah plant. Silver Eagle won exemptions from 2023 blend mandates for two smaller units it owns in Wyoming and Utah. The only Friday denials were for Chevron's 45,000 b/d Utah refinery, which applied for the first time in years just last month. But the increasingly generous relief for small refiners is likely to provoke further backlash from larger oil companies, which argue that making them blend more biofuels is anticompetitive and illegal. EPA is months behind schedule on setting biofuel mandates for 2026 and 2027 and has a deadline Friday to tell a court more about how its reallocation plan affects its timeline. Biofuel groups have asked the court to force the agency to finalize program updates by year-end. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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