Opec sees gasoline driving 2026 oil demand growth

Market: Crude oil, Oil products
13/10/25

Opec kept its global oil demand and supply forecasts unchanged in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released today, but added new detail on product-level consumption, highlighting jet fuel as a key contributor in 2025 and gasoline leading growth in 2026.

The group continues to expect oil demand to rise by 1.29mn b/d to 105.14mn b/d in 2025, and by a further 1.38mn b/d to 106.52mn b/d in 2026. It made small downward revisions to its 2025 demand growth projections for China and India compared with last month's report, but stronger forecasts for other parts of Asia, as well as Africa and Latin America, offset the changes, keeping the overall non-OECD growth estimate broadly steady at around 1.2mn b/d.

Jet/kerosine is forecast to lead global demand growth in 2025, rising by 380,000 b/d year-on-year, followed by diesel and gasoline at 300,000 b/d and 280,000 b/d, respectively. LPG and naphtha are expected to add a combined 510,000 b/d, driven by petrochemical demand, while heavy distillates are projected to decline by 120,000 b/d.

For 2026, gasoline is forecast to lead growth at 430,000 b/d, followed by jet/kerosine at 360,000 b/d. Diesel demand growth is projected to slow to 190,000 b/d. LPG and naphtha demand is forecast to increase by a combined 400,000 b/d.

On the supply side, Opec left its non-Opec+ output growth forecasts unchanged, at 810,000 b/d in 2025 and 630,000 b/d in 2026, led by the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina.

Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — rose by 630,000 b/d on the month to 43.05mn b/d in September, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus. The group estimates the call on Opec+ crude at 42.5mn b/d in 2025 and 43.1mn b/d in 2026, unchanged from its previous report.

By James Keates

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Opec sees gasoline driving 2026 oil demand growth

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