04/12/25
Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook
Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest
coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop
cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this
cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from
the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision
was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better
performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown
in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and
surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly
distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior
cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles
occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years.
During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish
their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is
considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time
high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when
Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest
in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which
produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook
for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4
bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc
from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in
the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade
Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These
varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as
well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee
production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags
projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been
significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais
state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to
the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7
bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee
output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the
previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing
states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and
resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle.
Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2
bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to
both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on
the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production
and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year
to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is
usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn
bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the
same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction
in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited
domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of
50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer
of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil
exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and
Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc,
respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By
João Petrini Send comments and request more information at
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