Deforestation spike in 2024 risks 2030 goal

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biomass, Emissions
15/10/25

Global deforestation last year rose by 27pc and was 63pc above the projected pathway to zero deforestation by 2030,according to the annual Forest Declaration Assessment, published this week by a climate-focused coalition of the same name.

Global deforestation in 2024 rose to 8.1mn hectares (ha), equivalent to the territory of the Czech Republic and up by 27pc from 6.37mn ha in 2023, the report said.

Agricultural expansion and recurring wildfires, especially in tropical forests, were responsible for deforestation exceeding the target set under the Kunming-Montreal biodiversity framework to halt forest loss and restore nature, which was signed by 196 nations at the UN biodiversity summit in 2022.

But at least 10.6mn ha of degraded forests were under restoration projects as of September, although the report lacks data to accurately estimate if the recovering areas follow requiredscaling processes to reach set goals.The projected restoration area, which represents nearly 5.4pc of global reforestation potential, is 30pc behind targets set under the Kunming-Montreal biodiversity framework.

The global deforestation curve "has not begun to bend" with about five years to reach the 2030 goal, the report said. But the EU's Green New Deal and Brazil's Tropical Forest Forever Facility initiative — to be officially launched in Cop 30 — may be promising for forest conservation if both overcome political pushback and legislation hurdles.

Separately from the Kunming-Montreal biodiversity framework, more than 140 countries committed to halt deforestation by 2030 at the UN Cop 26 climate summit in Glasgow, with a wider target to restore around 350mn ha of degraded lands by then.

Tropical urgency

Around 8.8mn ha of tropical moist forests were degraded in 2024, which is more than triple the projected level on the pathway to zero degradation by 2030 laid out in Cop 26.

Large-scale wildfires in the Amazon basin emitted 791mn metric tonnes of CO2 last year, exceeding Germany's greenhouse gas emissions in the same period, according to the latest Forest Declaration Assessment. The report did not provide a comparison with 2023 emissions.

Around 17-38pc of the Amazon rainforest is already degraded, and the report expects as much as 47pc degradation in the basin by 2050 because of land-use change, extreme droughts and wildfires.

Bolivia lost 9pc of its remaining intact tropical moist forests last year, accounting for 32pc of global degradation emissions. Brazil lost less than 1pc of its forest area in the period but represented half of all tropical moist forest degradation in the Amazon basin at 1.66mn ha. Venezuela's degradation last year jumped 19-fold from the five-year average, while forest degradation rose six-fold from the five-year average in the Guiana Shield countries — which comprises Guyana, Suriname, France's French Guiana, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.

By João Curi

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10/11/25

COP: California

Houston, 10 November (Argus) — California is "doubling down" on its climate policies and goals to mitigate the impact of policy shifts by US president Donald Trump, California state senator Josh Becker (D) said at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil. Becker indicated the state is still moving forward on its response to climate change, despite ongoing opposition from the federal government including to the state's ability to regulate vehicle emissions, in a discussion on Monday around California's climate leadership under the Trump administration. Becker touted the continued emissions reductions for California's economy, which fell 3pc to 360.4mn metric tonnes (t) in 2023 from the prior year, primarily around emissions reductions in transportation, the state's largest emitting sector, according to state data released last week. But California is still looking to keep momentum going, including reducing vehicle emissions after the Trump administration signed three congressional resolutions earlier this year to repeal EPA waivers for the state's own tailpipe CO2 rules. "Even though they took away our waiver to regulate transportation, we are now working with our air resources board to come up with legislation for next year to figure out a way around that," Becker said. The EPA previously granted a waiver allowing California to ban gas-powered vehicle sales by model year 2035, known as Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), along with mandates for zero-emission truck sales and more-stringent nitrogen oxide emission standards during former president Joe Biden's administration. California, as part of a state coalition, is in ongoing legal disputes with federal government and automotive manufacturers over the removal of its tailpipe waivers. But while the courts deliberate, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is weighing measures the state could take to keep the transition away from fossil fuel-based vehicles on track. CARB plans to consider adopting emergency regulations that would allow it to use tailpipe regulations built on previous federal waivers in a hearing later this month. California has had some climate successes this year despite federal headwinds, including the state legislature's extension in September of its "cap-and-invest" program to 2045. The program, which was previously set to end in 2030, will bring in roughly $5bn/yr that California can use for investments in programs and policy targeting emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation and resilience, Becker said. Becker held up the growing portfolio of clean electricity within the state, now 70pc from zero-emission sources, and the CARB's development of corporate climate disclosures as part of the state's ongoing climate policy efforts. California is seeking a 40pc reduction in emissions, compared to 1990 levels, statewide by 2030, and net-zero emissions in 2045. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Agenda agreed, key issues left to presidency

10/11/25

Cop: Agenda agreed, key issues left to presidency

Belem, 10 November (Argus) — Countries at the UN Cop 30 climate summit were able to agree on an agenda a day prior to the summit's beginning, but key issues — unilateral trade measures, climate finance and countries' climate plans and emissions reporting — were left off, the Cop 30 presidency said today. The absent topics will be resolved through presidency consultations, Cop 30 officials said. A two-hour meeting was, at the time of writing, scheduled later today to discuss the items. There were eight agenda item proposals, and four of them did not make the cut, according to Cop 30's chief strategy and alignment officer Tulio Andrade. But there was an understanding that all will be considered in presidency consultations that "will start immediately", he added. Delegates will also discuss the issues in a plenary on 12 November, he added. Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago commended all delegations for agreeing to the agenda quickly. "This is good, not only to allow us to start working today already very intensively, but it will also allow us to explain to the world why these additional issues that have been raised really matter", he told reporters. Non-profit World Resources Institute (WRI) had previously flagged the four items as "notable". The climate finance topic is encompassed in a request from a group of developing countries to discuss the Paris climate agreement's Article 9.1. This section of the accord states that "developed country parties shall provide financial resources to assist developing country parties" — a topic that dominated last year's Cop 29 , with many developing nations disappointed at the outcome. Unilateral trade measures encompass the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) — a topic that proved contentious at previous climate talks , with pushback from some developing countries. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is also responsible for overseeing the bloc's taxation measures. WRI noted that the alliance of small island states (Aosis) — some of the most vulnerable to climate change — requested that countries discussed how to respond to the latest round of countries' climate plans, and the gap between these and the Paris agreement's temperature goals. "There are some countries that are concerned that [including an item on climate plans lacking ambition] may create a kind of deviation from the subjects that they believe should be dealt with first", Correa do Lago told reporters today. The presidency will address those countries individually, he added. Cop 30 started today in Belem, northern Brazil. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA does not update court on biofuel timing: Correction

10/11/25

EPA does not update court on biofuel timing: Correction

Corrects government shutdown's impact on court deadlines, and updates with new information throughout. New York, 10 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration did not update a court on its timeline for finalizing new biofuel blend mandates, as a partial government shutdown slows down court cases and regulatory work. Biofuel groups Clean Fuels Alliance America and Growth Energy have repeatedly sued the administration over its delays, hoping that a court will require the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set new biofuel quotas before year-end. Judge Timothy Kelly of the US District Court for the District of Columbia ordered the administration to provide an update on its timeline by 7 November. But in a filing that evening, the biofuel groups said they had not heard back from government lawyers. No timing update was provided. "It is the understanding of Clean Fuels and Growth Energy that counsel for defendants may currently be furloughed," they told the court. Kelly ordered the update before the ongoing partial government shutdown began. The DC district court later said in a general order that it would give the government more time to respond across all civil cases because of the funding lapse. Government lawyers had previously warned courts that the shutdown would sideline critical officials and make it hard to meet deadlines. But the government's lack of response to biofuel groups in the case is still raising fears of more prolonged delays updating a program that is important for producers of ethanol, renewable diesel and other biofuels and is popular among powerful farm-state Trump allies in Congress. EPA told Argus it was reviewing comments on its plan to make oil companies offset past program exemptions and "continues to work on final regulations" to establish new blend mandates. In past cases over biofuel program deadlines, biofuel groups and federal officials have negotiated new timelines or judges have ordered EPA to act by a set date. Clean Fuels said it would continue to ask the DC court to expedite the case and require the agency to publish a final regulation by year-end. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, EPA requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy credits from those that do. The program is crucial for the production margins of ethanol, renewable diesel and other biofuels and is popular among powerful farm-state Trump allies in Congress. EPA — required by law to set new mandates 14 months in advance of a new year — is late setting new quotas for 2026 and 2027. Even before the shutdown, the Trump administration told the DC court that developing a complicated plan to offset the impact of small refinery exemptions meant it might not be able to finalize new blend mandates until next year . Biofuel advocates fear that further delays would mean less ambitious final quotas, another hurdle for biorefineries that have cut run rates this year and for farmers hurting from this year's tariff fights. EPA has indeed been more cautious in the past when finalizing retroactive mandates since oil companies have less notice on volumes they must bring to market. Lawyers and lobbyists who closely track the program have also told Argus that delays raise the chance that major program updates — like a plan to halve program credits for fuels made abroad or from foreign feedstocks — are at least pushed back. Oil refiners have argued the half-credit idea is illegal and questioned how EPA could roll out a new feedstock tracking system in a matter of weeks. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Climate plans project 12pc GHG cuts over 2019-35

10/11/25

Cop: Climate plans project 12pc GHG cuts over 2019-35

London, 10 November (Argus) — Countries' most recent climate plans are projected to cut total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 12pc over 2019-2035, UN climate body the UNFCCC said today. Global GHG emissions were, before the Paris climate agreement was adopted, projected to rise between 20pc and 48pc over 2015-2035, UNFCCC data show. The UNFCCC's projections today are based on 113 climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), submitted, covering a timeframe up to 2035. It released a report, known as an NDC synthesis , which covered climate plans submitted by the end of September. But since then, 22 new NDCs have been submitted, including by the EU — and covering all 27 member states — and by the world's highest-emitting country, China. If countries implement all elements of their NDCs, global GHG emissions could drop by 14pc over 2019-2035, the UNFCCC projected. Developing countries often split climate plans into unconditional and conditional actions — the latter reliant on external support. Signatories to the Paris agreement are required to submit NDCs every five years, rising in ambition each time. While countries reach decisions at Cops, the NDCs are the chief route for the implementation of climate action. "The emissions curve has been bent downwards. Because of what was agreed in halls like this, with governments legislating, and markets responding", UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell told delegates today, as the UN Cop 30 climate summit began in Belem, northern Brazil. He warned countries that they "must move much, much, faster on both reductions of emissions and strengthening resilience", as "individual national commitments alone are not cutting emissions fast enough". "We don't need to wait for late NDCs to slowly trickle in, to spot the gap and design the innovations necessary to tackle it… Not one single nation among you can afford this, as climate disasters rip double-digits off GDP", Stiell told delegates. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico inflation eases to 3.57pc in October

10/11/25

Mexico inflation eases to 3.57pc in October

Mexico City, 10 November (Argus) — Mexico's inflation eased to an annual 3.57pc in October, driven by further deceleration in fruit and vegetable prices with core inflation holding steady. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 3.76pc in September, statistics agency Inegi said on 7 November, after accelerating from 3.51pc in July, which was the lowest annual headline inflation rate since December 2020. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held unchanged 4.28pc in October, was unchanged from September. This marked a sixth month above the 4pc level — the high-end of the central bank's target inflation range. Within core, consumer goods inflation eased to 4.12pc in October from 4.19pc in September, while services quickened to 4.44pc in October from 4.36pc in the previous month. The three largest contributors to CPI in October, as weighted by Inegi, were electricity rates — with the end of seasonal subsidies, single-family home prices and airfares, the latter two components falling under services. Non-core inflation decelerated in October to 1.18pc from 2.02pc in September, slowing again after a one-month acceleration and coming close to the 2025-low of 1.14pc set in July. Fruit and vegetable prices contracted by an annualized 10.27pc in October after a 4.86pc annual contraction in September, with produce prices much lower under this year's unusually favorable climate conditions compared to the elevated prices during last year's historic droughts. Annual energy inflation in October quickened to 1.07pc from 0.36pc in September, with 5.07pc annual inflation for electricity offset by a 1.2pc annual contraction for regular-grade gasoline. Energy prices continue to experience lower inflation after Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum in early September renewed an agreement with fuel retailers to maintain a voluntary price cap of Ps24/l ($4.93/USG) on gasoline, extending the policy for six months. The October CPI result was even with the median estimate in Citi Research's latest analyst survey. And with the result, Mexican bank Banorte is maintaining its end-2025 forecasts for headline and core inflation at 3.7pc and 4.3pc, respectively. Noting the central bank's quarter-point cut to its target interest rate on 6 November to 7.25pc and the October CPI data, Banorte said it expects cuts of similar magnitude in the December, February and March decisions, moving the target interest rate to 6.5pc. On a monthly basis, headline CPI sped up to 0.36pc in October compared to 0.23pc in September, in line with analyst expectations. Core prices accelerated to 0.29pc in October after a 0.33pc reading in September. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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