EPA does not update court on biofuel timing: Correction

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Emissions, Oil products
10/11/25

Corrects government shutdown's impact on court deadlines, and updates with new information throughout.

President Donald Trump's administration did not update a court on its timeline for finalizing new biofuel blend mandates, as a partial government shutdown slows down court cases and regulatory work.

Biofuel groups Clean Fuels Alliance America and Growth Energy have repeatedly sued the administration over its delays, hoping that a court will require the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set new biofuel quotas before year-end. Judge Timothy Kelly of the US District Court for the District of Columbia ordered the administration to provide an update on its timeline by 7 November.

But in a filing that evening, the biofuel groups said they had not heard back from government lawyers. No timing update was provided.

"It is the understanding of Clean Fuels and Growth Energy that counsel for defendants may currently be furloughed," they told the court.

Kelly ordered the update before the ongoing partial government shutdown began. The DC district court later said in a general order that it would give the government more time to respond across all civil cases because of the funding lapse. Government lawyers had previously warned courts that the shutdown would sideline critical officials and make it hard to meet deadlines.

But the government's lack of response to biofuel groups in the case is still raising fears of more prolonged delays updating a program that is important for producers of ethanol, renewable diesel and other biofuels and is popular among powerful farm-state Trump allies in Congress.

EPA told Argus it was reviewing comments on its plan to make oil companies offset past program exemptions and "continues to work on final regulations" to establish new blend mandates.

In past cases over biofuel program deadlines, biofuel groups and federal officials have negotiated new timelines or judges have ordered EPA to act by a set date. Clean Fuels said it would continue to ask the DC court to expedite the case and require the agency to publish a final regulation by year-end.

Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, EPA requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy credits from those that do. The program is crucial for the production margins of ethanol, renewable diesel and other biofuels and is popular among powerful farm-state Trump allies in Congress. EPA — required by law to set new mandates 14 months in advance of a new year — is late setting new quotas for 2026 and 2027. Even before the shutdown, the Trump administration told the DC court that developing a complicated plan to offset the impact of small refinery exemptions meant it might not be able to finalize new blend mandates until next year.

Biofuel advocates fear that further delays would mean less ambitious final quotas, another hurdle for biorefineries that have cut run rates this year and for farmers hurting from this year's tariff fights. EPA has indeed been more cautious in the past when finalizing retroactive mandates since oil companies have less notice on volumes they must bring to market.

Lawyers and lobbyists who closely track the program have also told Argus that delays raise the chance that major program updates — like a plan to halve program credits for fuels made abroad or from foreign feedstocks — are at least pushed back. Oil refiners have argued the half-credit idea is illegal and questioned how EPA could roll out a new feedstock tracking system in a matter of weeks.

By Cole Martin

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05/12/25

Australia’s Carbon2Nature launches ACCU project

Mumbai, 5 December (Argus) — Carbon2Nature Australia, a subsidiary of Spanish utility Iberdrola's nature-based solutions company, has launched the Talia project to generate Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) under the Environmental Plantings (EP) method. The project will be developed as a joint effort between Carbon2Nature and Land Life, an Amsterdam-based social enterprise. The first ACCUs are expected to be issued in 2027, Iberdrola Australia told Argus on 4 December. The project is estimated to generate approximately 114,000 ACCUs over its 25-year crediting period in South Australia. EP ACCUs trade sporadically and in limited volumes, but recent transactions have achieved prices in the mid-A$50s/t CO2e — well above the range for generic ACCUs. Argus assessed generic ACCU prices at A$35.70/t CO2e on 5 December. Carbon2Nature is targeting projects capable of providing high-integrity ACCUs such as EP, the firm said. Voluntary demand for these ACCUs is growing, and the value of such projects appear to be long term, it added. By Shribalaji Shenbagaraj Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook

04/12/25

Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook

Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Funds’ Ice gasoil long position down from 45-month high

04/12/25

Funds’ Ice gasoil long position down from 45-month high

London, 4 December (Argus) — Sharp swings in European diesel prices in November were driven in part by entities with no physical exposure, as money managers briefly held their largest long positions in Ice gasoil futures in nearly four years. Funds have looked to gasoil futures because of increasing volatility in the contract when compared with Ice Brent crude futures, according to a senior participant in oil paper markets. The daily change in the value of front-month Ice gasoil has averaged 1.66pc so far this year, compared with 1.32pc for front-month Ice Brent. Money managers — hedge funds and pensions funds, along with other entities managing on behalf of clients — have increased their long positions in Ice gasoil futures as the year has progressed. This reached a 45-month high of 153,689 lots in the week to 18 November, according to Ice's Commitment of Traders report. Ice gasoil futures hit $777.50/t on 18 November, the third-highest of the year. Money managers trimmed 10pc of that position the following week, to 137,971 as of 25 November. Ice futures fell below $700/t on that date, pressured by reported progress on a plan to end the conflict in Ukraine. This led market participants to consider what peace would mean for diesel markets: a slow down in Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and, in the longer term, a possible European return to importing Russian diesel. Funds' long position is still almost double the 74,015 held at the start of 2025, and the average 75,398 held in 2024. Long and the short of it Before peace talks started to progress, money managers' net long positions were the highest in more than three-and-a-half years. An analyst said funds have probably taken an overall position of being long diesel cracks — taking long positions in gasoil futures and short ones in Brent. Permanent cuts to refining capacity in Europe, as well as extensive temporary outages this year, have contributed to a disconnect between gasoil and Brent price movements. As gasoil prices rise, refiners can hit capacity limits, which has capped their crude buying and kept Brent steadier. Managed money held the biggest short position in Brent since at least 2015 on 21 October at 190,639 lots. This has fallen since, but did rebound to 163,975 on 25 November, the eighth shortest since 2015. Funds' involvement in futures has further increased volatility, as they tend to buy and sell futures more quickly than entities with physical exposure. That volatility increases potential losses as well as potential gains. Some funds may have made very large losses this year because of unexpected swings, the paper market participant said. European diesel often prices on a exchange-of-futures-for-physical (EFP) basis, using Ice gasoil futures, meaning the futures price can be an influence on the physical price. European physical diesel cargoes priced at a $45.64/bl premium against North Sea Dated on 19 November, the highest in nearly three years. The following week, when money managers were cutting their long positions, the physical diesel premium fell to $27.15/bl. Ice gasoil futures is a physically-delivered contract, so any price dislocation is generally soon closed as traders look to work an arbitrage between the futures and physical. By Josh Michalowski and Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Arab region warming at twice the global average: WMO

04/12/25

Arab region warming at twice the global average: WMO

London, 4 December (Argus) — The Arab region is warming at twice the global average, with temperatures increasing by 0.43°C per decade from 1991 to 2024, a report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) found today. The world experienced the hottest year on record in 2024. The average temperature across the Arab region in 2024 was 1.08°C higher than the 1991-2020 average, the WMO said. The Arab region saw "intense heatwaves and droughts as well as extreme rainfall and storms", the WMO added. The WMO's report, the inaugural State of the Climate in the Arab Region , covers 22 countries across north and east Africa and the Middle East and was compiled with the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia and the League of Arab States. The Middle East and north Africa "are among the hottest regions in the world, and climate projections indicate a continued intensification of summer heat extremes in both subregions", the WMO said. The report also included regional climate projections from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "If the current warming rate continues, mean temperature increase in the Arab region could reach 1.8°C with respect to the 1991-2020 average by 2050", the report found. A handful of climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — submitted recently by Arab region countries underline the challenges that climate change poses for the region. NDCs submitted over the past few weeks by Bahrain, Qatar and Yemen all note the countries' vulnerability to climate change, including water scarcity. Of the 20 most water-scarce countries globally, 15 are in the Arab region, and climate change is compounding this, the WMO said. Qatar and Bahrain flagged in NDCs their water sectors as a source of emissions , including through power-intensive desalination processes. Bahrain this week noted its "water vulnerability as a challenge that is further intensified by climate change impacts", in its third NDC. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN

04/12/25

Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN

Edinburgh, 4 December (Argus) — Qatar has pledged to reduce its emissions by 42mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2040 from a 2019 baseline, with the oil and gas sector "at the forefront of national mitigation efforts". Qatar does not provide its total greenhouse emissions for 2019, but said its climate plan encompasses CO2, methane and nitrous oxide gases. It covers the energy sector — oil and gas, power and water — construction and industry, transport, waste and agriculture, forestry and other land use. Parties to the Paris Agreement were required to submit climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), for 2035 to the UN climate body UNFCCC this year. Qatar had previously targeted emission reductions of 25pc, or 37mn CO2e, by 2030, compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. BAU scenarios typically assume emissions based on current policies, leaving room for potential increases. The country's emission cuts in its oil and gas sector will rely on "deploying cleaner fossil fuel technologies, developing engineered sinks to store emissions, diversifying the energy mix, and driving operational excellence across existing facilities and infrastructure", according to its climate plan. Qatar is the world's largest LNG producer, with a production capacity of 77mn t/yr, according to QatarEnergy, and its economy is heavily reliant on hydrocarbon revenues. The country's climate plan highlights the country's vulnerability to response measures to mitigate climate change, resulting from its economy's reliance on hydrocarbons. "Qatar is actively working to reduce the socio-economic effects of global climate action," the plan said, adding that it seeks to balance climate goals with national sustainable development. "Despite many efforts and considering its role as a leading producer and exporter of natural gas, Qatar remains significantly vulnerable to climate response measures," it said. Qatar is part of the Arab Group, a negotiating group in UNFCCC climate talks, which is seeking to focus on cutting emissions from fossil fuels, rather than hydrocarbon production and consumption, through increased adoption of carbon capture technologies. The country said it plays "a pivotal role" in supporting other countries' targets by "reliably supplying them with a cleaner alternative to coal and oil and providing a critical backup for intermittent renewables". Qatar's climate plan sees the secure and affordable supply of lower-carbon energy as well as the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the management of emissions of energy production as the focus to pursue sustainable development and climate action. The country considers itself to be among the leaders in CCS with its Ras Laffan project, and aims to capture 11mn t/yr of CO2 by 2035. Engineering firm Samsung C&T was recently awarded a contract to build a 4.1mn t/yr CO2 facility to process and store emissions from Qatar's LNG liquefaction plants. Qatar, in its climate plan, highlighted the country's water supply vulnerability to temperature increases and heat. The power and water sector accounts for a large share of the country's emissions. Water scarcity is also responsible for increasing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Bahrain through desalination, although its energy sector remains the main source of emissions, according to the country's new climate plan. The country is heavily reliant on fossil fuels for its energy and revenues, while "limited land availability and competing land-use demands constrain large-scale deployment" for the development of solar energy. Rising demand over the peak summer months this year meant that Bahrain had to import LNG for the first time since commissioning its 800mn ft³/d onshore LNG receiving and regasification terminal in 2020. But it is looking at renewables options and is in talks with Saudi Arabia for a link to a large-scale solar facility. Bahrain said that response measures to climate change "may lead to economic losses that, in turn, hinder Bahrain's ability to pursue effective climate action and achieve broader sustainable development objectives." By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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