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Latest Market News

Australia to burn more coal, less gas by 2050: Aemo

  • Spanish Market: Electricity
  • 10/12/25

Australia may burn less gas and more coal than previously expected over 2025-50, because of coal-fired power plant extensions and flexible gas-fired generation, forecasts from the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) show.

Coal

Australia's final coal-fired power plants are expected to close in 2049, the agency said in its draft 2026 Integrated Systems Plan (ISP) on 10 December. This is 11 years later than Aemo forecast in its 2024 ISP.

But some coal plants may only operate seasonally during summers and winters when demand is high, Aemo said.

The agency's extended coal forecast comes less than two months after Australia's Queensland state government backtracked on plans to close its state-owned coal-fired power plants by 2035. State-owned utility Stanwell may operate its 1.46GW Stanwell power station until 2043-46.

Gas

Australia will need 14GW of gas-fired generation in 2050, Aemo said. This is down by 1GW from its 2024 forecast and by 2GW from its 2022 forecast.

The agency expects utilities to retire 9GW of gas-fired mid-merit and peaking generation by 2050. But these will be replaced and expanded by flexible plants that can back up Australia's electricity system, Aemo said.

Queensland's state government expects the state's gas-fired generation capacity to rise from 3.5GW in 2025 to 6.1-8.3GW by 2035, it said in October. It has allocated A$400mn ($265mn) to support gas, renewable, and storage projects.

Renewable energy

Australia will need 120GW of grid-scale wind and solar generation in 2050 to meet its energy needs, Aemo said. This is down from its previous forecast of 127GW.

But the country's consumer-scale solar generation is expected to reach 87GW in 2050, up from its previous forecast of 86GW.

New grid-scale projects should be clustered in Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) to support economies and scale and access to transmission lines, it added.

Multiple states have announced REZ projects to support renewable generation. The 15,000 GWh/yr Central-West Orana REZ is set to open in late-2028, in New South Wales (NSW).

Victoria's state government similarly allocated A$7.9bn to build six REZs and launch seven transmission programmes by 2040. It aims to increase the state's wind generation from 4.6GW to 14.7-18.6GW and its solar generation from 1.2GW to 4.8-7.7GW over that period.

Storage

Australia will need 40GW dispatchable, grid-scale storage by 2050, according to Aemo. This is down from the 49GW it forecast in its 2024 ISP.

The country's storage capacity will come from 33GW of battery and pumped-hydro storage and 7GW of hydroelectric power, it said.

But Aemo has cut its 2050 household and commercial battery forecast from 37GW in its 2024 plan to 27GW.

By Avinash Govind

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10/12/25

Japan’s Hokkaido approves Tomari nuclear restart

Japan’s Hokkaido approves Tomari nuclear restart

Osaka, 10 December (Argus) — Japan's Hokkaido prefecture has approved the restart of Hokkaido Electric Power's (Hepco) Tomari nuclear power plant, removing the final hurdle to restarting the first reactor in the northernmost prefecture since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. Hokkaido governor Naomichi Suzuki officially approved the restart of the 912MW Tomari No.3 reactor on 10 December, nearly two weeks after stating on 28 November that the use of nuclear power remains a practical option for the time being. His decision was supported by four local authorities — Tomari village, Kyowa town, Iwanai town and Kamoenai village — whose consent is also required to resume operations at the Tomari plant. Approval from local governments is essential before any nuclear reactor restart in Japan, even when reactors meet stricter safety standards designed to prevent a repeat of the Fukushima-Daiichi reactor meltdown following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The approval means the Tomari No.3 reactor is likely to restart once reinforcement work is completed, as the unit already received a safety clearance from Japan's nuclear regulation authority (NRA) in July. Hepco hopes to restart the reactor as early as possible in 2027. The Tomari plant is Hepco's sole nuclear facility, comprising the 579MW No.1 and No.2 reactors in addition to No.3 unit. The No.1 and No.2 reactors are still undergoing the NRA safety inspections. Hepco has been without nuclear power since May 2012, relying on thermal generation instead, which has increased costs. The utility consumed 1.78mn t of coal over April-September, up by 9.6pc from a year earlier, while oil usage edged up by 0.9pc to 3,884 b/d. LNG consumption fell by 61pc to 85,000t during the period, mainly because of maintenance at a gas-fired plant. Hepco expects household electricity rates under regulated tariffs to fall by around 11pc following the planned restart of Tomari No.3 reactor. For non-regulated tariffs, overall rates are projected to decline by an average of 7pc, including roughly 11pc for low-voltage customers and about 6pc for high- and extra-high-voltage users. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LNG to fill the gap as Seoul pledges faster coal exit

03/12/25
03/12/25

LNG to fill the gap as Seoul pledges faster coal exit

South Korea is scrambling for alternatives to coal-fired power to maintain sufficient base-load capacity, writes Evelyn Lee London, 3 December (Argus) — South Korea's pledge to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2040 has thrown its energy strategy into sharp focus, exposing a looming 40GW capacity gap. With nuclear expansion stalling and renewables facing infrastructure hurdles, LNG has become the most likely bridge to fill the potential shortfall. South Korea has formally confirmed its plan to retire 40 out of its 61 existing coal-fired units by 2040, following its declaration during the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil last month to join the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) — a coalition of countries committed to ending coal use for power generation. The phase out timeline for the country's remaining 21 units — some of which were built relatively recently — will be determined through public consultation taking into account economic and environmental feasibility, and a detailed phase-out strategy is expected to be finalised next year, the PPCA says. This aligns with Seoul's intention to establish its 2026-40 long-term power plan by the end of next year. The firm phase-out pledge leaves South Korea scrambling for alternatives to maintain sufficient base-load power capacity. Its current long-term power plan covering 2024-39 was established in February under the previous administration of then-president Yoon Suk-Yeol. It earmarked 28 aging coal-fired units with a combined 14.1GW of capacity for conversion to LNG, and 12 units with 6.8GW of capacity to transition to carbon-free generation, such as pumped storage, hydrogen or ammonia co-firing, all by 2038. The current administration under President Lee Jae-Myung has indicated it does not intend to allow plants to switch to ammonia co-firing , signalling a decisive break from earlier strategies that sought to keep coal in the mix under a low-carbon guise. In line with this, Lee's administration in October cancelled the second round of a clean hydrogen power generation bidding market, which would have subsidised hydrogen and ammonia co-firing under 15-year contracts. Seoul searching An accelerated coal phase-out alongside a ban on approving new nuclear reactors has led to growing expectations that South Korea will lean more heavily on gas-fired plants to maintain its power system at least until renewables capacity catches up. The current electricity plan stipulates building two new 1.4GW reactors and continued use of expiring reactors, resulting in nuclear capacity rising to 35.2GW in 2038 from 26.1GW in 2025. But the Lee administration has ruled out building new reactors, although construction of reactors already under development can proceed as planned. The government has approved the restart of the 650MW Kori reactor 2, in line with the president's stance that expiring reactors may continue operating if safety standards are met. But even with these measures, Seoul must identify more than 40GW of replacement capacity by 2040, based on information currently available. This is roughly equivalent to the country's entire coal-fired fleet, which has accounted for around 28pc of total power output this year. The government aims to expand South Korea's renewable energy capacity to 100GW by 2030 from a previous target of 80.9GW and current capacity of 37.9GW, but its renewables rollout continues to be constrained by insufficient transmission capacity upgrades, mainly driven by local opposition. A law to accelerate grid projects came into force on 26 September, but progress is now being held up by local governments, which are reluctant to approve project permits in a bid to maintain positive public opinion ahead of municipal elections in June next year. Persistent grid bottlenecks have increased the country's reliance on gas-fired generation in recent years, as these plants are located close to the main demand centre around Seoul. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s Victoria to miss renewable power targets

03/12/25
03/12/25

Australia’s Victoria to miss renewable power targets

Sydney, 3 December (Argus) — Australia's second-largest state by population Victoria will meet its 2025 renewable energy goal, but is likely to miss future targets due to slow development, the state's auditor-general said today. Delays to key projects risk future electricity shortages, according to the Managing the Transition to Renewable Energy report published on 3 December, highlighting difficulties reaching the state Labor government's targets ( see table ). Three coal-fired stations, the 1,480MW Yallourn, 2,210MW Loy Yang A, and 1,200MW Loy Yang B generators produce about 59pc of the state's electricity, but the former two are scheduled to close in 2028 and 2035 respectively. Meeting the 2030 target requires fast-tracking two major projects under the Victorian Transmission Plan. This includes the A$3.2bn ($2.1bn) Victoria-New South Wales (NSW) Interconnector West (VNI West) delayed from 2028 to 2030 in July and the Western Renewables Link also due to be completed in 2030. The delay means Victoria will lack access to the 2,200MW Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project in New South Wales (NSW) when it is completed in late 2028, after Yallourn closes. Canberra's Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) is critical to reaching 65pc renewables by 2030 but private firms must build and connect Victoria's full CIS allocation in the next four years with additional state support, the report said. Achieving the 2030 goal also relies on electricity demand not growing faster than anticipated. Transmission projects are unpopular with many landholders and regional communities due to land use conflict issues. Victoria has moved to neutralise opposition by legislating accelerated pathways for new projects. But Victoria will meet its 2.6GW storage target by 2030 because sufficient new battery capacity is planned, the auditor-general said. Offshore wind fail Victoria is aiming to replace much of its coal-fired capacity with offshore wind projects but the sector has stuttered after permitting for a key support facility was rejected by federal authorities in 2024 . Under an optimistic scenario, Victoria may build 2GW of offshore wind capacity by 2033 but further delays are possible, the report said. The state's energy department has not adequately considered risks transitioning supply from fossil fuels to renewables, including the full extent of projects delays and weather variation, the auditor-general found. Long-lasting high-pressure systems prevalent in May-October could reduce wind generation for days on end, limiting both battery charging and imports of power. Gas-fired generation is at risk from gas supply shortfalls , meaning the current pipeline of generation and storage projects could be insufficient to offset Yallourn's closure. The report comes two days after a regulator determined that the 2,880MW Eraring coal-fired facility in NSW, the nation's largest, would likely need to be kept on line beyond its planned retirement in 2027 . By Tom Major Victoria's renewable energy targets 2020 2025 2030 2032 2035 2040 Renewable total (%) 25 40 65 - 95 - Offshore wind power (GW) - - - 2 4 9 Energy storage (GW) - - 2.6 - 6 - — Victorian government Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Italy awards 8.6GW RES capacity in first Fer-X tender

02/12/25
02/12/25

Italy awards 8.6GW RES capacity in first Fer-X tender

London, 2 December (Argus) — Italy awarded 82pc of available solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind capacity in the first transitional Fer-X auction, energy agency GSE said on Monday. The scheme aims to subsidise around 12GW of renewable capacity and is open to entrants until the end of 2025. The scheme is geared to encouraging newbuilds, but is also open to repowering solar and wind projects. GSE awarded 7.7GW of solar PV across 474 plants — against the 8GW available. Only one of these is a repowering project. The weighted average price was €56.825/MWh, and the maximum price awarded was €62.675/MWh. "From a cost perspective, the lowest bids are technically feasible only in this very specific framework," country manager at clean energy supplier Jinko Power Technology, Felice Lucia, told Argus . "In high-irradiance regions, large-scale projects can now reach a levelised cost of energy around €48/MWh, but only under a stable contract-for-difference mechanism like Fer-X." He added that in a fully merchant scenario — especially with rising solar capture price discounts — projects would not deliver attractive internal rates of return at these levels. "The auction also reinforces market polarisation — the winners are almost entirely 50–100MW utility-scale plants with compressed capital expenditure levels. Smaller projects simply cannot match these economies of scale," Lucia said. A total of 72 PV projects, equivalent to 744MW, withdrew their application, but showed interest in the second Fer-X auction, according to the GSE, which is open to PV plants with non-Chinese components. This second round received 156 applications, equivalent to 1.85GW of PV capacity, but the energy ministry set a cap of 1.6GW. The results are expected by 15 December. GSE suggested last month that participants with bids above the €65/MWh target strike price sign PPAs through its upcoming platform, with GSE acting as guarantor of last resort. Italy's south and Sicilian zones received a significant share of the approved PV capacity — well above their demand — which is likely to lead to curtailment, according to energy storage system supplier WHES' country manager, Valerio Covicchio. He suggested installing storage systems at industrial sites so that PV energy consumption can be shifted to the evening, saying this could help tackle curtailment. The concentration of awarded capacity in southern Italy will increase the need for major south-to-north grid reinforcement, pushing grid operator Terna to fast-track upgrades, Lucia said. GSE awarded 940MW of wind capacity for 29 wind farms out of the maximum 2.5GW available. A third of this consisted of renovation works. The weighted average price was €72.851/MWh, while the maximum price awarded was €77.738/MWh. "The auction can be considered a true success for GSE," Covicchio said. "A substantial volume of GW was allocated with significant discounts, indicating strong market interest." The Fer-X auction confirms that "Italy's utility-scale solar sector has reached full industrial maturity", Lucia told Argus . Winning projects will need to be commissioned within 36 months from the results announcement. Italy had 41.89GW of solar PV capacity and 13.46GW of wind capacity at the end of October, up by 6.1GW and 574MW, respectively, on the year. By Ilenia Reale Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Floods disrupt PKS supplies in peninsular Malaysia

02/12/25
02/12/25

Floods disrupt PKS supplies in peninsular Malaysia

Tokyo, 2 December (Argus) — A series of floods in the peninsular Malaysia since late November has disrupted supplies and logistics of palm kernel shells (PKS), market participants told Argus . Almost all regions of the peninsular Malaysia were hit by heavy rain last week, especially the Perak area in the northwest peninsular and Melaka in the southwest peninsular. The east coast of the peninsular, including Kelantan and Terengganu areas, were also severely flooded. This has caused significant damage to roads and infrastructure in the regions, impacting PKS supplies and logistics, according to traders. Such disruptions could limit PKS supply capacity in these areas, which may affect spot prices of the cargoes loaded in peninsular Malaysia, market sources said. Northern Sumatra in Indonesia was also hit by heavy rain, including the Aceh area. But Jambi and Riau, which are major PKS supplying areas in Sumatra, were not significantly impacted, although logistics in Padang region in western Sumatra were disrupted slightly. Argus- assessed prices for PKS that meet Japan's FiT requirements were at $87.60/t fob peninsular Malaysia on 26 November, lower by $1.06 on the week. Prices of PKS that comply with Japan's FiT requirements were pegged at $101.47/t fob east coast Sumatra on the same day. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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