Road freight rates for grains and fertilizers may rise in 2026, as a record 2025-26 soybean crop boosts trucking demand in the first quarter, with many areas being harvested simultaneously.
Brazil's grain freight rates remained high during 2025, with record soybean and corn production throughout the 2024-25 cycle, contributing to above-average freight rates compared to 2024. On the Sorriso-Miritituba stretch, freight rates averaged around 12pc above 2024 levels, while on the Rondonopolis-Santos route the increase was around 6pc. Freight rates are also likely to rise as fertilizers are transported for the second 2025-26 corn crop in May.
In the export market, especially for soybeans, trade tensions between China and the US led the Asian country to turn to Brazilian oilseeds to meet demand. This extended Brazil's export window and resulted in constant demand for road transport services.
For 2026, with Brazil likely to see record-high soybean output in the 2025-26 cycle, greater demand for transportation services in export corridors is expected, which may also result in higher freight rates.
National supply company Conab projects that Brazil will produce 177.6mn metric tonnes (t) of soybeans in the 2025-26 cycle, an increase of almost 3.6pc compared to the previous season and the largest on record, according to the second official estimate for the cycle. Central-western Mato Grosso state — Brazil's largest producer — could harvest 47.2mn t of soybeans in the 2025-26 cycle, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics (Imea). That would be 7.3pc behind 2024-25 production, but still the second largest in the state's history.
Overall, the planting pace for the 2025-26 cycle proceeded without major problems. Planting registered a surge in progress throughout October. In the first four weeks of planting, planting reached 21.2pc of the nearly 13mn hectares (ha) expected for the cycle by 10 October. However, planting advanced by 54.9 percentage points across the month, totaling 76.1pc by 31 October.
More than half of Mato Grosso's soybean area was planted during the same period. This raises concerns among market participants about high competition for transportation in export corridors and availability of vehicles, resulting in a logistical bottleneck, since the harvest of these areas must also occur at the same time.
Climate issues remain on the radar. Accumulated rainfall in Mato Grosso during November reduced water stress and favored crop development. But rainfall remained irregular in other regions, a situation that could harm the state's productivity. This could also affect the corn planting window and its harvest in the second half of 2026. Although Brazil expects significant corn production, the domestic market has been absorbing most of the grain volume, exceeding exports.
This should result in lower grain freight rates during this period, with a good portion being destined to meet the needs of Brazilian industry. Corn ethanol production in Brazil is expected to total 8.7bn litres (l) in the 2025-26 cycle, an increase of 11pc compared to the 7.8bn l produced in the previous cycle. Conab projects that 1t of corn can produce around 400l of ethanol, which means that approximately 21.8mn t of corn will be consumed by the ethanol industry, up from 18mn t a year prior.
Fertilizer freight rates likely to rise
Fertilizer transportation may also face logistical bottlenecks while moving inputs from ports inland due to the slow pace of fertilizer purchases, especially nitrogen fertilizers, for the second 2025-26 corn crop. The national land transport agency's (ANTT) minimum freight rate table also adds challenges to the logistics market.
Since October, compliance with the minimum freight rate is monitored automatically, based on information entered in a mandatory electronic tax manifest (MDF-e) issued by the party that hires the truck driver, such as carriers. This gathers information from several invoices related to the cargo transport, facilitating tax inspection and logistics management. The system cross-checks data declared in the MDF-e with the official minimum freight rate table. If the reported value is below the legal limit, the system will identify the irregularity without requiring an additional report or inspection.
The new automatic compliance system led to increases in fertilizers road freight rates of up to 70pc on some of the 31 routes monitored weekly by Argus. Subsequently, freight rates decreased slightly during the year, with some carriers disregarding the table and reducing profit margins in a bid to offer competitive prices.
In addition, demand for vehicles with a greater number of axles has skyrocketed. Under the new regulations, seven-axle trucks are deemed less efficient and cost-effective than nine-axle trucks, the supply of which is more limited.
Deliveries of nitrogen-based fertilizers, especially urea and ammonium sulphate (AS), will likely increase competition for vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, especially in January, when the supply of trucks is reduced due to drivers heading home for end-of-year festivities. Under these circumstances, higher fertilizer freight rates and higher costs for road logistics are expected.
Brazilian importers have been exchanging urea for AS, which offered during most of 2025 a more attractive nitrogen price. However, twice the volume of AS is required compared to urea for an equivalent amount of nitrogen, as urea has 46pc nitrogen and AS has 21pc, which adds to logistical and operational costs. The availability of sufficient trucks has been a concern this year, hindering inland transport.
ANTT's new electronic inspection system of minimum freight rate table, in effect since October, remains an important market driver and resulted in a significant increase in road logistics costs. But this matter is surrounded by legal uncertainty as a state court decision suspending fines in some regions has not curbed the growing number of carriers ignoring the minimum freight rate table. However, most carriers continue to comply to avoid penalties. Fertilizer companies remain reluctant to absorb the rate increases imposed by the table.
In this context, the situation would only be resolved with a ruling from Brazil's Supreme Court on the constitutionality of the issue. But market participants believe it is unlikely that the issue will be resolved in 2026, as it is unpopular and affects an important sector for the country in a year of federal elections.
