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Venezuela defies US call to end aid for Cuba: Update

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 12/01/26

Venezuela's government vowed to continue support for Cuba, which has included shipments of oil and fuels, despite US president Donald Trump's call for the aid to end immediately.

The administration under interim Venezuelan president Delcy Rodriguez will continue "the free exercise of self-determination and national sovereignty" regarding its relations with Cuba, which "have historically been based on brotherhood, solidarity, cooperation and reciprocity", it said on Sunday.

Trump earlier in the day said that Venezuelan aid to Cuba will end, noting that Cuba in return provided security for arrested former president Nicolas Maduro and his predecessor late former president Hugo Chavez. Trump has asserted that the US will essentially run Venezuela's oil sector while leaving Maduro's supporters in power in Caracas after the US military seized Maduro in a night raid on 3 January.

"I strongly suggest they [Cuba] make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE," Trump posted on social media.

Cuba has rejected the suggestion.

The US has "no moral authority to force a deal on Cuba," and the island "is a free, independent, and sovereign nation," President Miguel Diaz-Canel replied.

The US' removal of Maduro and its virtual take over its oil industry has further pressured Cuba's already stressed power sector. Venezuela shipped an average 15,000 b/d of crude to Cuba in 2025, according to Kpler ship tracking data.

The US instead has said it will sell Venezuelan oil and redirect proceeds to benefit the US and Venezuela.

Holding funds, prisoners

Trump has moved to protect the proceeds from any such sales of Venezuelan natural resources from judicial proceedings, in an executive order signed on Friday and released on Saturday.

Multiple lawsuits have been filed by creditors in US courts against the Venezuelan government and state-owned companies, including one related to the sale of US refiner Citgo — ultimately owned by the Venezuelan government.

How the US' sale of Venezuelan oil will work, or whether the Venezuelan administration will comply, is uncertain.

Among other demands the Rodriguez government has not met, it has not released all political prisoners as promised, several non-government organizations have said. National Assembly president Jorge Rodriguez, brother to Delcy Rodriguez, said on Friday that he would comply with this demand. But by Sunday night only 22 of a total of 809 known political prisoners had been freed, according to anti-censorship NGO Un Mundo Sin Mordaza.

Attorney general Tarek William Saab on Sunday confirmed the death during detention of Edilson Torres, a 52-year-old police officer accused of sending a WhatsApp message criticizing Maduro.

By Carlos Camacho

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12/01/26

Naphtha flows to Venezuela via traders resume

Naphtha flows to Venezuela via traders resume

Houston, 12 January (Argus) — Trading company Vitol is set to export nearly 500,000 bls of naphtha to Venezuela under a new agreement with the US government, according to market sources. Details of the new supply agreement were not detailed or confirmed by Vitol or fellow-trader Trafigura, which was also involved in the transaction. Both companies are expected to begin working with the US government to market Venezuelan crude, with Trafigura saying last week during a televised meeting at the White House it expected its first Venezuelan crude to load this week . The 460,000 bl of naphtha were reported loaded on the Hellespont Protector on 11 January out of Pasadena, Texas, according to shipping data tracker Kpler. The cargo was headed to the Port of Jose in Venezuela. Venezuela requires heavy to full-range N+A naphtha as a diluent to transport its heavy crude production. A brief expiration of US sanctions against Venezuela in 2025 stemmed the US naphtha flow to Venezuela. The only company able to transact with Venezuela was oil major Chevron, which was awarded a special limited license in July 2025. Naphtha exports through Chevron resumed several months after the special license was created. Late last week, heavy virgin naphtha (HVN) prices at the US Gulf coast surged by more than 10¢/USG as suppliers anticipate fresh demand for exports to Venezuela. A steepened contango in the Nymex RBOB pricing basis for US N+A naphtha also discouraged prompt selling at lower outright values — a bullish indicator for N+A naphtha prices. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ waiting for Venezuela clarity

12/01/26
12/01/26

Opec+ waiting for Venezuela clarity

Dubai, 12 January (Argus) — Opec+ officials are adopting a wait-and-see approach to developments in Venezuela, sources from the producer group told Argus . "It is too early to draw conclusions on the market impact of a potential return of US oil companies to Venezuela," sources said, noting the situation remains fluid and that "a lot of dust still needs to settle" before any meaningful assessment can be made. US president Donald Trump on 9 January hosted nearly 20 oil industry executives at the White House in an attempt to persuade them back to Venezuela. The South American country is a member of the Opec+ producer group, but is exempt from output targets because years of sanctions have suppressed its production. Opec+ officials are playing down the likelihood of a rapid revival in Venezuelan output, pointing out that US oil companies face governance constraints and board and shareholder scrutiny, and that rebuilding Venezuela's oil sector would be a long, capital-intensive process requiring stable and consistent policy well beyond the current US administration. Similar views were expressed by some oil executives during last week's meeting with Trump, when ExxonMobil [chief executive Darren Woods] (https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2774418) called the legal and commercial frameworks in place in Venezuela "uninvestible". US oil companies are wary, having exited Venezuela nearly 20 years ago following expropriation of assets, and executives want durable reforms alongside security guarantees. Trump has offered "total safety, total security" for oil companies operating in Venezuela, without elaborating on how such these would be guaranteed. Opec+ officials have long argued, in private, that sanctions on oil-producing countries have reduced market visibility and increased volatility. The current situation in Venezuela could ultimately improve transparency around supply prospects, even if actual output increases take time to materialise. Near-term production gains could be achieved in 18–36 months, according to executives at oil companies already operating in Venezuela, including Chevron and Spain's Repsol. Estimates presented by their senior executives last week point to a combined output increase of around 300,000 b/d over that period. Opec+ raised production for the first time in three years in 2025. Argus estimates Opec+ output rose by an average of 1.45mn b/d, to 40.65mn b/d in 2025, largely driven by the eight core members rolling back part of their additional cuts. Another increase will happen this year if Opec+ sticks to its current plans. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US naphtha market braces for disruption

12/01/26
12/01/26

US naphtha market braces for disruption

London, 12 January (Argus) — US naphtha and fuel oil markets moved in opposite directions against a backdrop of higher expected Venezuelan crude supplies to the US following its capture of the country's president, Nicolas Maduro. Venezuela's role in the products markets is concentrated in high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) export and naphtha import trade. US naphtha differentials firmed after energy secretary Chris Wright announced on 7 January that the US is negotiating with Caracas to "indefinitely" take over oil sales by state-owned PdV and supply the diluents and equipment needed to enable a boost in Venezuelan output. The US has a long history of selling naphtha as a diluent to Venezuela for use in transporting the heavy crude produced there, although sanctions and political tensions have undermined the trade. Heavy-virgin naphtha differentials gained 1.75¢/USG against the Nymex Rbob pricing basis on 7 January, with many sellers withholding offers in anticipation of renewed opportunities to export to Venezuela should there be any changes to the current sanctions regime. US naphtha exports to Venezuela have lagged its exports to other South American countries such as Brazil and Colombia, as well as to Asia-Pacific, as sanctions have curtailed the trade. But a six-month sanctions waiver from October 2023-April 2024 and a special licence issued to Chevron as a joint-venture partner with PdV have helped reinvigorate some naphtha trading activity. US Gulf coast naphtha exports to Venezuela fell to just over 40,000 b/d last year from above 55,000 b/d a year earlier, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. But shipments waned in the second half of last year, as the US flip-flopped over whether to renew Chevron's special licence. No visible US naphtha exports have gone to Venezuela this year. Venezuela has turned elsewhere in the face of the lower US deliveries. Of its 88,000 b/d of naphtha imports last year, US shipments accounted for 47pc, while Russian receipts made up 41pc, or 36,000 b/d, while China shipped 8,000 b/d. That represents a potential opportunity for US shippers to supply an additional 30,000-40,000 b/d of naphtha to the Latin American country. When they go high, it stays low US HSFO differentials recorded the largest day-to-day losses since July 2025 in the US Gulf coast and New York Harbor markets on 7 January, driven by the developments in Venezuela, as prices fell to their lowest since January 2021. HSFO cash prices fell by $3.50/bl to a 60-month low of $47.20/bl on the Gulf coast and by $3.70/bl to a 59-month low of $50.90/bl in New York Harbor. The potential for more Venezuelan heavy sour crude to enter the US had more of an effect on HSFO than low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO), as heavier grades yield more HSFO when refined and an abundance of heavy crude can lead to HSFO oversupply. US control of Venezuelan crude supply is expected to increase US HSFO availability as more Venezuelan crude would be refined in the US, rather than sent to Asia, market sources say. In addition to producing more HSFO when refined, an abundance of heavy crude also reduces refinery demand for HSFO as a feedstock, which increases HSFO supply and exerts further pressure on prices. HSFO has been supported in the Asia-Pacific market by expectations of a reduction in Venezuelan supplies to the region. Venezuela exported about 150,000 b/d of HSFO last year, based on Kpler data, with Singapore and Malaysia taking roughly a third of those flows. But a potential waiver enabling US firms to take Venezuelan product could redirect flows away from Asia. Any redirection of Venezuelan crude to the US away from China could also bolster demand from Chinese refiners for straight-run fuel oil as a refinery feedstock. By Daphne Tan USGC naphtha differential US HSFO prices Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US majors face dilemma as they mull Venezuela return

12/01/26
12/01/26

US majors face dilemma as they mull Venezuela return

New York, 12 January (Argus) — The largest US oil producers that President Donald Trump wants to see returning to Venezuela to revitalise its ailing energy sector face a tough choice. Few executives will want to get on the wrong side of Trump, but any serious effort to help rebuild the South American country's long-neglected oil infrastructure will require tens of billions of dollars — as well as government guarantees. Venezuela may sit atop the world's biggest proven oil reserves, but firms will need to be persuaded that it is worth their time and effort to try to exploit them. Oil producers will pledge at least $100bn to revive Venezuela's crippled oil sector, Trump said ahead of a meeting with top industry executives at the White House on 9 January. But capital discipline rules the boardroom these days when it comes to allocating resources, shareholders are in the driving seat, and the top oil companies have competing priorities in the coming years. "They've got other options," says Abhi Rajendran at Rice University's Center for Energy studies. "There's going to have to be a lot of risk mitigation that Washington can provide for there to be a meaningful incentive to dive head deep into Venezuela." With oil prices languishing near a five-year low because of a supply glut, there is hardly a market signal to rush back, especially to a country where companies including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are owed billions of dollars in arbitration claims after having their assets seized in 2007. Immediate repairs to Venezuela's oil infrastructure could deliver a short-term production boost in the next year or so. The country's oil output has slumped to below 1mn b/d from over 3mn b/d in the early part of the 2000s. But anything beyond that would demand hefty investments and companies would need reassurances they were dealing with a stable regime in Venezuela, clarity around legal contracts as well as long-term support from Washington. "There are a lot of hurdles to clear before you can get super excited about investing in Venezuela, which would require a pretty large-scale investment," Rajendran says. Chevron would have a head start over rivals if a major effort to revive Venezuela's oil industry becomes a reality. The second-biggest US oil company has maintained a continuous presence in Venezuela even after other major producers departed. It operates in the country with state-owned PdV under a special waiver from US sanctions and imported about 120,000 b/d of crude from Venezuela to the US in December, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. Big deal Wider US oil industry enthusiasm about heading back to Venezuela has been mixed so far, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said. "The big oil companies who move slowly, who have corporate boards are not interested," Bessent said on 8 January. The view is different among independent oil producers and wildcatters, who are eager to take part, he added. But the prospect of tapping Venezuela's vast oil riches may yet prove tempting as companies seek out new opportunities to shore up their upstream portfolios for coming decades. "Venezuela's huge oil resource can play a part, even if the predominantly heavy crudes are at the other end of the spectrum from the advantaged barrels — low cost, low emissions and, in many cases, low risk — that are the primary focus of the industry going forward," argues energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Proximity to Gulf coast refineries may be an added bonus for US producers. But improved security will be a requirement before companies start deploying workers as well as a stable political and legislative framework. "Any new projects will also have to meet companies' strict economic screening criteria," Wood Mackenzie says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US DOJ launches criminal probe of Fed chair

12/01/26
12/01/26

US DOJ launches criminal probe of Fed chair

Houston, 11 January (Argus) — The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, a move Powell said is motivated by the White House's desire to dictate the bank's policy decisions. In a statement posted online on Sunday , Powell said the Fed received grand jury subpoenas on 9 January threatening a criminal indictment for his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June about renovations to Fed office buildings. Calling the probe "an unprecedented action", Powell dismissed questions about the renovations and his testimony as "pretexts". The threat of criminal charges stems from the Fed "setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president", Powell said. "This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation," Powell said. By conducting a criminal probe of the US' central banker, the administration runs the risk of stoking investors' fears about political interference in Fed policy. Powell, who was appointed to his post by Trump in 2017 during his first term, has faced consistent pressure and criticism from the president in his second term for being too slow to cut rates. Powell's term ends in May, but Trump has threatened to fire him before then and has tasked treasury secretary Scott Bessent to interview replacements. During its most recent meeting in early December, the Fed cut its target interest rate by a quarter point to 3.5-3.75pc, the third reduction in 2025, as it tried to balance a weakening jobs market with stubbornly high inflation. At that meeting Fed officials penciled in a single quarter-point rate cut in 2026 with a similar cut the following year. The next meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is 27-28 January. By Tom Fowler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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