Finnish industry association H2 Cluster Finland is targeting 60,000 t/yr of synthetic aviation fuel (e-SAF) production by 2030 in a wider roadmap for the hydrogen sector.
Creation of a "Lead Market Task Force" for e-SAF is "the first concrete initiative" foreseen under the roadmap released today, H2 Cluster Finland said.
The group expects that a single e-SAF production site with 250MW electrolysis capacity could allow for the 60,000 t/yr to be met. Several companies have announced plans to build facilities of this scale, but so far no plant has reached a final investment decision.
The 60,000 t/yr would represent 10pc of the roughly 600,000 t/yr of e-SAF demand that could be needed across the EU to meet the 1.2pc quota for 2030-31 from the bloc's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, H2 Cluster Finland said.
Finland itself may need around 10,000 t/yr to meet its own share under the regulations, the group estimated.
Additional supply could be sold to meet obligations by jet fuel suppliers in other EU countries, especially if the EU implements a book-and-claim mechanism which some industry participants have called for. The system would allow e-SAF to be physically delivered within Finland, while certificates for the sustainability attributes could be sold to companies abroad.
Finland's e-SAF production would rise to 250,000 t/yr by 2035 from 4-5 plants, based on H2 Cluster's roadmap.
The group said that e-SAF plants may need operational subsidies, for example as contracts-for-difference (CfD), for the targets to be realised.
Some e-SAF project developers, such as Norwegian Norsk e-Fuel, recently already secured tax credits from Finland's investment and innovation agency Business Finland.
Creating an e-SAF market is "one of the most critical objectives for the Finnish hydrogen economy over the next five years," H2 Cluster Finland said.
The group has also set other targets, including for 200,000-300,000 t/yr of "clean hydrogen production capacity" to be under construction by the end of this decade. By 2035, Finland should have 400,000 t/yr of such capacity in operation, H2 Cluster Finland said. This could be used for industrial activities and road mobility, according to the group.
The roadmap also includes proposals to upgrade pipeline and port infrastructure, as well as policy recommendations such as introducing CfDs schemes and public procurement for products made from renewable hydrogen such as green steel.
