Dutch marine ticket prices reached a four-month high this week, as buyers rushed to secure the tradeable compliance credits after port sales data highlighted a potential shortfall in biofuel supply needed for the Netherlands' shipping renewable energy mandate.
Dutch regulations state marine fuel suppliers must cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2.9pc in 2026, rising to 8.2pc by 2030, against a baseline of 94g CO2e/MJ. Compliance is demonstrated through surrender of renewable fuel tickets, called ZRE-Gs, which are generated when renewable fuels are supplied. These can be traded.
Fuel suppliers can either blend renewable fuels or purchase ZRE-Gs from over-compliant peers. But Port of Rotterdam data show marine biodiesel sales, although sharply up on the year, appear to remain below what is needed to generate enough ZRE-Gs for all Dutch bunker fuel suppliers to meet their 2026 obligations.
A shortfall could call into question a strategy pursued by several conventional fuel suppliers, who intended to meet part — or all — of their obligations through ticket purchases rather than physical biofuel blending. ZRE-Gs rose to 13.40c/kgCO2e on Thursday, equivalent to $456/t of Advanced Fame blended, having been around 10.50c/kgCO2e through most of July.
The full extent of any shortage is impossible to determine. The published data are limited to one port, and the consumption figures include biofuels blended with fossil fuel not just pure biofuels. The level of compliance is based on the GHG savings of the biofuel used, which varies from one batch of fuel to another.
Still, Rotterdam is a key bio-bunker hub, and even conservative calculations from Argus and some obligated parties show a deficit in biofuel usage at the port.
The prospect of a shortage is particularly concerning for fuel suppliers, because non-compliance can lead to an administrative fine of up to 10pc of turnover from the previous year.
Participants have also questioned if any shortfall can be covered by credits from other transport sectors. While Dutch regulations allow some cross-sector flexibility, road transport LRE-G tickets have traded at around four to five times those of marine ZRE-Gs this year, limiting the likelihood of additional supply flowing into the marine market. It is also unclear if the road sector will have much surplus available, given road mandates are much higher than for maritime.
The increase in ZRE prices led to a decline in B100 Advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) dob Netherlands prices. They fell by $63.50/t to $1,286.50/t on 30 July, while marine gasoil (MGO) dob ARA was assessed at $1,288.50/t on the same day. This is the first time B100 Advanced Fame dob Netherlands was assessed lower than MGO since the marine biodiesel assessment began on 22 January.
B100 costs on the rise
Rising net B100 costs had already been supporting ZRE values before the release of the Rotterdam data, and it has been more expensive on an outright basis that conventional marine fuels throughout 2026.
Although it can be at a substantial discount for shipowners, when EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime savings are taken into account, relative to fossil bunker fuels, that advantage has narrowed in recent months as FuelEU surplus values have fallen.
Argus estimates FuelEU surplus prices trading in the market declined to €120/t in July from €215/t at the start of the year, reducing the potential savings for using B100 for shipowners under pooling schemes to around $430/t from around $786/t.
MGO prices have risen this month, and ranged in $900-1,200/t in July. Rotterdam bunker sellers typically account for ZRE costs within outright sale prices. By comparison, outright B100 prices have ranged in $1,286.50-1,390/t, but fall to around $450-650/t after accounting for ETS and FuelEU surplus savings.
The shrinking gap between B100 and conventional fuel compliance costs has added further support to ZRE demand in recent months because of the lower benefit to shipowners.
