Europe's build-out of hydrogen-based sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) will depend on demand-side tools that secure long-term offtake and on standardised, repeatable plant designs that cut capital costs and execution risk, panellists said at the Hyvolution event in Paris this week.
Industry participants and EU policymakers often cite the ReFuelEU Aviation mandate — backed by binding targets and high penalties — as a key driver of e-SAF demand. But developers warned that mandates alone will not unlock final investment decisions (FIDs). No European e-SAF project has reached FID, industry group France Hydrogene said, noting that US-based Infinium remains the only developer globally to have taken one. Europe risks an e-SAF supply shortfall by 2030, the group said.
Even with capital expenditure support from the EU Innovation Fund and national schemes such as France's Carb Aero, developers said projects cannot advance without 15-20-year offtake deals. EDF subsidiary Hynamics, speaking about its Take Kair project, said FID will be difficult without long-term contracts despite secured subsidies. BNP Paribas added that bank financing depends on creditworthy buyers committing to long-term offtake on terms favourable to developers.
Panellists urged the EU and member states to better align incentives for first movers. The EU's planned double-sided auctions under the e-SAF Early Movers Coalition are expected to stimulate demand, but developers said additional support will be required. Developer Verso Energy and industry group Hydrogen UK said member states should introduce revenue-stabilising mechanisms similar to the UK's planned contract-for-difference model for SAF, which would guarantee 15-year revenues shielded from policy changes.
BNP Paribas said the EU could also benefit from allowing book-and-claim accounting under the e-SAF mandate, simplifying logistics for producers and buyers. Verso proposed requiring fuel suppliers to pay penalties upfront, reimbursed only when compliant e-SAF is delivered. National schemes could be deployed faster than EU-wide measures, the company said.
Verso warned that the current "wait-and-see" approach among airlines and fuel suppliers would be a "big mistake", arguing that early movers will secure better pricing and supply. Late buyers may face tighter availability, higher costs or penalties as mandates tighten in 2030. The firm said offtake agreements must be in place by 2026 for new projects to start up by 2030, given the three-year development and commissioning timeline.
Panellists also stressed that standard plant designs will be critical to lowering risk and speeding deployment. Engineering firm Rely noted that e-SAF plants combine four still-maturing technologies — electrolysis, carbon capture, methanol synthesis and methanol-to-jet (MTJ) — at scales not yet proven together. Rely said e-SAF facilities require more than 800 equipment items, making modular, repeatable designs essential to reducing capital intensity and meeting delivery schedules.
Rely and Verso are developing four identical e-SAF plants in France, each with 80,000 t/yr of capacity. Verso said this "copy-paste" model strengthens its hand in offtake negotiations, as airlines and fuel suppliers would not be dependent on a single site. The scale was chosen to enhance competitiveness, it said.
The firm also plans full vertical integration — including its own power supply for some projects and complete MTJ plants for all — allowing electrolysers and methanol facilities to flex with power prices and store methanol ahead of jet upgrading. Each plant will require 300-350MW of electrolysis, meaning curtailment could also generate significant revenue from grid operators.
BNP Paribas said such integrated structures are viewed more favourably by lenders because they reduce counterparty risk. But securing electricity and CO2 supply will be equally important, given expectations of future biogenic CO2 shortages in Europe.
