A US plan for its navy to escort ships heading through the strait of Hormuz is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon because the fleet will be occupied with military operations, according to analysts at shipbroker SSY.
Traffic through the strait, the world's most critical oil and LNG shipping lane at the mouth of the Mideast Gulf, has almost entirely stopped, with insurers unwilling to cover transit since Iran said it will "burn" any ship that tries to pass. A container ship was struck today in the strait, UKMTO said.
US president Donald Trump stated on 3 March that "if necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible." Europe is also looking at naval operations in the region, with French president Emmanuel Macron announcing on Tuesday the creation of a coalition to secure traffic through Hormuz.
But SSY said the US Navy "has privately told the industry it will lack escort capacity until the initial stage of the military operation is complete. An additional issue is that US law does not allow the country's navy to escort ships that are not US-flagged or -owned, or have no US crew, the firm said.
In addition to the legal issues, SSY pointed to the difficulty of actually protecting shipping in the strait.
"Physical geography favours the attacker," it said. "[Shipping] lanes are 2 [nautical miles] wide each direction; vessels transit at 10–12 knots and must turn at the narrowest point adjacent to Iranian islands.
"A destroyer can intercept missiles but cannot simultaneously sweep mines, counter drone-boat swarms from multiple bearings, and manage GPS disruption," SSY said.
The firm pointed to recent US operations in the Red Sea at the height of attacks by Yemen-based Houthi militants, where "escorts failed to restore commercial traffic despite ~400 drones/missiles downed".
But, SSY said, pressure to restore normality is greater this time, which could lead to a significantly different military strategy.
