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Ice Brent volatility passing onto Ice gasoil

  • Spanish Market: Oil products
  • 09/03/26

The value of Ice gasoil futures and the spread between futures contracts both fluctuated wildly today, partly driven by volatility in Ice Brent crude futures, as market participants describe an increasingly opaque market.

The value of front-month Ice March gasoil futures moved in a range of $263.25/t since the Singapore open today. The contract hit a peak of $1,381/t in intraday trading at 02:18 GMT, which is higher than any settlement since June 2022. But by the London close at 16:30 GMT, the contract had settled at $1,116/t. That value was still higher by $7.75/t from the 6 March close.

The moves in gasoil futures roughly follow moves in Ice Brent crude futures. The front-month Ice May Brent contract surged to a peak of $119.50/bl, as fears grew about continued disruption to flows through the strait of Hormuz. The contract then fell after the Financial Times reported that the IEA and G7 countries were considering a joint release of oil stocks. The G7 said today it has no immediate plan to release oil from strategic reserves. Ice May Brent settled at $100.10/bl, higher on the day by almost 10pc and the first settlement over $100/bl since 2022.

The gasoil futures fall in later trading today was steeper than Brent's, eroding diesel refining margins. The premium of Ice May gasoil against Ice May Brent settled at $31.30/bl, down by $5.11/bl from the 6 March close.

The backwardation — where prompt prices exceed future prices — in Ice gasoil futures was also volatile today. The premium of Ice March gasoil against Ice April gasoil reached at least $113.50/t in early trading, but settled at $87/t.

Market participants appeared confused as to why Ice gasoil's margin against Ice Brent fell so sharply and why the structure of the gasoil futures narrowed. March gasoil futures expire on 12 March, so traders rolling their long positions to the second-month futures — which involves selling March futures and buying April futures — may have depressed values, one trader said. Market participants may also be profit-taking, another trader said. Multiple market participants said that the volatility in crude made it difficult to create a clear picture of the European gasoil market.


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