UK's grid, offtake risks threaten H2 FIDs: Utilities

Spanish Market: Electricity, Hydrogen
13/03/26

Grid connection delays, difficulty securing long-term hydrogen offtake deals and challenges sourcing compliant low-carbon power are the main barriers to UK renewable hydrogen projects reaching final investment decisions (FIDs), utilities RWE Generation and Statkraft said at the Hydrogen UK conference this week.

RWE is developing large-scale renewable hydrogen projects in Germany, in the Netherlands and in the UK, leveraging its sizeable renewable portfolio in northwest Europe.

RWE's UK green hydrogen schemes include a 100MW electrolyser at Pembroke and a 100MW plant at Grangemouth — the latter reduced from 200MW on weaker demand expectations. Both are shortlisted in the UK's second hydrogen allocation round (HAR2). RWE also plans a potential HAR3 bid with its Liverpool Bay project for connection to the HyNet network.

HyNet partner Progressive Energy's chief executive Chris Manson Whitton said it would be a "three digit megawatt" electrolyser.

But Claire Woodward, RWE's head of UK hydrogen project development, said grid connection dates are "very uncertain" and any timeline slips could affect HAR2 eligibility. Offtaker risk is the biggest hurdle, she said. A lack of hydrogen pipelines forces 15-year contracts with single local buyers, creating significant risks for producers, customers and financiers. Combined with delays to the HAR2 award decision, these factors make securing the board's FID approval difficult, she said.

State-owned Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC) head of hydrogen Emma Bezuidenhout said HAR1 projects also face delays between signing subsidy contracts and FID because of offtake challenges.

Electricity sourcing further complicates development. Statkraft's vice president of origination Duncan Dale said reliance on a single co-located renewable asset can leave electrolysers idle for too long, undermining profitability. Using grid electricity at uncertain carbon intensity risks non-compliance with the UK's low carbon hydrogen standard (LCHS) and HAR rules, Dale said, and hidden electrical infrastructure costs also offset any savings from co-located designs.

Dale said developers need utility partners with "massive and diverse" renewable portfolios to stay profitable, limit spot market exposure and maintain LCHS compliance. Even with a 5:1 wind farm-to-electrolyser capacity ratio, he said, electrolysers would still use grid power 33pc of the time at uncertain price and carbon intensity.

Dale said a 15-year fixed price power purchase agreement (PPA) with a creditworthy supplier is essential. A £20/MWh price increase over 15 years for 1 TWh/yr equates to £300mn in losses — "peanuts" compared with potential geopolitical driven swings, Dale said. Electricity accounts for 70–80pc of levelised hydrogen production costs, making cost control critical.

By Chingis Idrissov

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16/03/26

EU leaders to mull gas price cap this week

Brussels, 16 March (Argus) — The European Commission will assess the effect of "subsidising or capping" the gas-fired generation price and redistributing infra-marginal revenues on national level "on a case-by-case basis", if member states use such instruments, commission president Ursula von der Leyen said. These emergency measures limiting the effects of gas prices on electricity should avoid internal market "distortions", preserve long-term clean energy investment signals and preclude "excessive additional" demand for gas, von der Leyen said in a letter to EU leaders ahead of a European Council meeting in Brussels on 19-20 March. The commission is looking at "targeted" short-term measures rather than "structural" changes, energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said. The EU has a "very clear" interest in keeping the electricity market design as it is. "We need the market to function and we need to make sure that we have security of supply, which is what the marginal pricing system secures us," Jorgensen added. Other measures proposed by von der Leyen include better use of power purchase agreements and contracts for difference. For carbon markets, von der Leyen submit a proposal to increase the "firepower" of the market stability reserve (MSR) to decrease the price of EU emissions trading system (ETS) allowances. And von der Leyen said there were discrepancies between taxes and levies imposed on energy sources. "In many cases, electricity is taxed much more heavily — up to fifteen times — than gas," von der Leyen said. Emergency measures could be approved by a qualified majority of EU states under an emergency procedure. But Germany has already rejected any intervention by the commission on the bloc's electricity market and merit-order system. Speaking at a meeting of energy ministers on Monday, German energy minister Katherina Reiche said the bloc's current energy market model, with a merit-order system and marginal pricing, is the "most efficient" for determining electricity prices cost-effectively, while keeping markets liquid. "The interventions that are being proposed would ultimately lead to higher prices. At this moment, that would send exactly the wrong signal," Reiche said, adding that renewing imports of Russian natural gas is not an option. Reiche is open to see how additional government revenues via energy taxes can be distributed more fairly. Swedish energy minister Ebba Busch sees no "magic wand" for current energy prices. Measures to fill storage ahead of the coming winter should be implemented in a way that does not penalise countries like Sweden that have done their "homework" by moving away from natural gas and other fossil fuels, Busch said. Introducing price caps or phasing out the ETS is a "difficult proposal" because high carbon prices benefit many state budgets, Polish energy secretary Wojciech Wrochna said. "We cannot cut the revenues from one day to another," he said, calling for a "targeted, urgent, country-specific" solution. Gas is not the problem, "it's the ETS cost", Wrochna added. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German government under pressure on climate target

16/03/26

German government under pressure on climate target

Berlin, 16 March (Argus) — Germany's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were almost unchanged last year, according to data released by federal environment office UBA on 14 March, putting pressure on the government ahead of its new climate action programme expected next week. GHG emissions fell by less than 1mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), or 0.1pc, on the year in 2025 to 649mn t CO2e. Only the country's battered industry sector achieved meaningful cuts, as energy-intensive production declined further. Although this allowed Germany to meet its 2025 target under the country's climate action law — a 48pc cut in emissions against 1990 levels — the chances of the country reaching its 2030 climate target are lower than a year ago, UBA projections show. UBA expects Germany to post a 63pc emissions reduction in 2030, compared with 1990 levels, a 30mn t CO2e gap against the country's 65pc target. UBA also projects a gap of 100mn t CO2e in 2040, with reductions of 80pc against an 88pc target, assuming no change to emissions-cutting measures. The challenge to meet the 2030 target has become "bigger but not impossible", environment and climate minister Carsten Schneider said at the presentation of the data. Germany will need to reduce GHG emissions by an average of 42mn t CO2e/yr in 2026-30, Schneider said. Expected increases in heat pump and electric vehicle sales, and onshore wind power turbine deployment, are "beacons of hope", Schneider said. Germany's energy sector emissions fell by only 0.3pc last year, mainly owing to lower wind speeds, which reduced wind power and in turn increased gas-fired generation. Industrial emissions fell by 3.8pc, with UBA noting "slow progress" in the rollout of technologies such as electrification and green hydrogen. The country's transport sector posted an emissions rise of 1.5pc, on increasing traffic volume. The buildings sector was the worst performer, recording a 3.5pc rise in emissions as lower temperatures pushed up fossil fuel consumption for heating. Schneider underlined the urgency of investments to decarbonise buildings and transport, not the least to avoid "as far as possible" the purchase of carbon allowances from other EU member states under the bloc's Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR). UBA puts Germany's likely cumulative total gap under the ESR in 2021-30 at 255mn t CO2e. Emissions in the land use, land use change and forestry sector more than halved to 27mn t CO2e, mainly thanks to Germany's forests reverting to an emissions sink, absorbing 19mn t CO2e last year. Emissions in the agricultural sector were flat. The UBA projections were finalised in November and therefore do not reflect the latest developments in the oil and gas markets, or recent legislative proposals expected to curtail growth in renewable power and ease the continued use of oil and gas-based heating installations. Energy think-tank Agora Energiewende called for these legislative proposals to be revisited, as well as suggesting investments in "future-proof" infrastructure, additional tenders for onshore wind power and "clear" CO2 limits for car fleets. And environmental group DUH announced it will take further legal action — following its successful court case against the government in January — if next week's climate action programme "obviously" fails to close the gaps identified in UBA's projections. Germany's government-appointed council of experts on climate change has until mid-May to verify UBA's projection data. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia to build 100GW solar power plant

13/03/26

Indonesia to build 100GW solar power plant

Singapore, 13 March (Argus) — Indonesia aims to build a 100GW solar plant as part of plans to accelerate the development of new and renewable energy to strengthen the country's energy security. Indonesia's president Prabowo Subianto has identified the development of large-scale solar power plants and the electric motor conversion programme — which promotes the switch to electric vehicles, especially for motorcyles — as short-term acceleration priorities, the energy ministry (ESDM) said on 12 March. In line with this, Prabowo has ordered the construction of a 100GW solar plant, to "implement the electrification of renewable energy from solar power in the shortest possible time," he said. No further details such as costs or timelines were provided. "We already have the intention of achieving energy self-sufficiency, which we are confident will be achieved within four years," said Prabowo, adding "with this acceleration, we are confident that this energy problem can be resolved." Prabowo had previously announced a plan for 100GW of solar power, consisting of 80GW of decentralised solar systems equipped with battery storage . Energy supply concerns The announcement comes on the back of rising concerns about the disruption of energy supplies in the wake of the US-Iran war, which has effectively halted shipping through the Mideast Gulf and the strait of Hormuz ꟷ the waterway through which 14mn b/d of crude and 6mn b/d of refined products transited before the conflict began. Many countries are facing a more severe energy crisis than Indonesia, and Indonesia has abundant alternative energy sources, Prabowo said. "We have abundant palm oil, sufficient cassava, and we can get fuel from corn and sugar cane. Our brothers and sisters have vast geothermal resources. If I'm not mistaken, these are the two largest reserves in the world that have not yet been fully exploited," he said. National fuel supply is currently secure, energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on 11 March, as production and distribution continue to meet public demand in accordance with government-set operational stock standards. But Indonesia's domestic fuel storage tank capacity is currently limited. "Our capacity is no more than 25 days," Bahlil said, adding that available stocks are sufficient for 23 days. But this does not necessarily mean the supply will run out within 23 days, and simply reflects the stock capacity held in the storage tank at any given time, he emphasised. He stressed that ongoing refinery output and continued import volumes would ensure a steady flow of supply. Indonesia is also not solely dependent on the Mideast Gulf for fuel, he added. The country gets most of its volumes from domestic refinery production as well as imports from Singapore and Malaysia. In the long term, the government aims to raise storage capacity . Plans include the construction of new storage infrastructure that can hold at least three months' worth of fuel. By Prethika Nair and Aldric Chew Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US trade deficit narrows by 25pc in January

12/03/26

US trade deficit narrows by 25pc in January

Houston, 12 March (Argus) — The US trade deficit narrowed in January to its lowest in three months, as exports grew faster than imports. The US trade deficit in goods and services fell to a seasonally adjusted $54.4bn in January, down from $72.9bn in December, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday. The deficit in goods fell from December by $17.5bn to $81.8bn. The services surplus widened by $1bn to $27.3bn. Compared with January 2025, the total deficit shrank by 58pc. President Donald Trump launched a raft of tariffs on 2 April last year, "Liberation Day," citing emergency powers, before suspending the highest reciprocal tariffs in a bid to negotiate bilateral trade deals or gain leverage for sometimes unrelated deals. The ensuing uncertainty in US trading relations, along with scattershot diplomatic sorties, including lashing out at allies and adversaries alike, has scrambled supply chains, corporate investment and hiring plans and spending patterns, helping to undermine the dollar and US debt markets. The trade-weighted dollar has depreciated by about 2pc so far this year following an 8pc depreciation last year, according to Oxford Economics. A weaker dollar supports US exports and makes imports more expensive. The US trade deficit edged higher to $911bn last year from $904bn in 2024, with the goods deficit rising to $1.24 trillion from $1.215 trillion the prior year. The full trade deficit peaked at $923bn in 2022, up from $837bn the prior year, before falling to $774bn in 2023, according to BEA data. Total US exports in January rose to $302bn, $15.8bn more than in December, while imports were $356bn, $2.6bn less than in December. "Imports would normally be rising, so their recent stagnation suggests that the tariffs have depressed demand somewhat, in favor of domestic production, but the returns are minimal in the context of the pain of higher costs inflicted on businesses and households," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note. "The overall deficit in January was essentially unchanged from its Q4 average of $53.3B, suggesting that net trade will have little bearing in GDP growth in Q1." Exports of goods increased on the month by $14.6bn to $195.5bn in January, while imports of goods fell by $2.8bn to $277bn. Exports of services increased by $1.2bn to $106.7bn, and services imports rose by $23bn to $79.3bn. Petroleum trade slows US exports of crude and petroleum products, including natural gas liquids, fuel oil and others on an end use basis, totaled $20.6bn in January, down from $21.1bn in December, with imports at $15.5bn in January, down from $16.2bn the prior month, the report said. Exports of crude averaged 3.9mn b/d in January, with imports at 6.1mn b/d the same month. The US had a $19bn deficit with Vietnam in January, a $12.9bn shortfall with Mexico and a $12.5bn deficit with China, a $6.1bn deficit with the EU and a $6bn deficit with South Korea, a $5.5bn deficit with Japan and a $4.9bn shortfall with Germany. The US deficit with Canada was $2.7bn in January. The US had a $7bn surplus with the UK, a $6.4bn surplus with the Netherlands, a $4.5bn surplus with central and south America, a $2.2bn surplus with Saudi Arabia and a $1.8bn surplus with Brazil. For 2025, the US showed surpluses of $61bn with Netherlands, $52bn with south and central America — including $14bn with Brazil — $32bn with the UK, and $28.5bn with Hong Kong. The average US tariff rate on imports rose to 13pc by the end of last year from 2.6pc at the beginning of the year, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study released late last year. US firms and consumers bear 90pc of the economic burden from the tariffs, the New York Fed study said. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

French industrial gas-to-power switching lags

12/03/26

French industrial gas-to-power switching lags

London, 12 March (Argus) — Falling gas demand in French industry in recent years has not yet been matched by a corresponding rise in power demand, as cost, uncertainty and other factors reduce the attractiveness of electrification projects. Industrial energy consumption evolution Gas consumption in industry has fallen sharply in recent years. Last year, consumption in transmission system operator Natran's zone — which covers 94pc of French demand — fell to the lowest in more than 10 years at 92TWh. But the fall in gas consumption has not been accompanied by a fall in overall manufacturing output, suggesting it is because of fuel-switching, efficiency improvements or reshuffling to focus on less energy-intensive products (see gas demand vs output graph) . Industrial power consumption may have begun rising from energy crisis lows, although rises are currently small and not all measures show a rise. Average demand on the high-voltage and medium-voltage grids, which serve large energy-intensive industry and smaller sites, respectively, rose by 1.3pc and 1.4pc on the year in 2025, the first time that demand rose in both since 2021. But specifically for manufacturing firms on the high-voltage network, 2025 demand marked a near-low over the past 20 years ( see power demand graph ). A fall of 1.1TWh in chemical sector demand in the year outweighed small 100GWh gains in each of the food and agriculture and paper sectors. The past few months may have seen the beginnings of a more significant upturn. High-voltage demand in January was the highest for any month since January 2022, and in December and January it was up by 6-7pc on the year after climate correction ( see high-voltage and medium-voltage demand graph ). Barriers to wider industrial electrification Retail electricity prices for industrial consumers were 2.3 times higher than gas prices in the first half of 2025, according to government data. The higher efficiency of electricity used for producing heat can offset some of this gap, while expectations of higher carbon emissions pricing in the future under the EU emissions trading system can drive firms to electrify. But a lack of certainty about the future price incentives is a barrier to electrification, according to consultancy Synops decarbonation project manager Louis Longhini. Some companies may hesitate to electrify for a lack of long-term visibility, especially with larger projects where capital expenditure requirements mean the payback period is longer, Longhini said. Such firms may reinvest in fossil fuel-fired processes simply because they are not sure that the investments needed to electrify will pay off in the long run. And conversion from gas to electricity in some sectors such as glass-making may be more complicated. The investments required are larger, changes to processes make the projects more complex and the sectors are already facing difficulty, he said. Fear of a widespread blackout, in the same style as the Spanish blackout last year, makes firms hesitant to electrify. The extreme spike in French power prices during 2022 is another barrier, Longhini said. Industrial users of gas can be reassured that most of their international competitors are exposed to the same global gas price rises as they are, but power price rises specifically in France would put them at a competitive disadvantage. Price can be a significant barrier to electrification, Frank Roubanovitch, president of Cleee, an association of large energy consumers, told a conference in September. Ceramics makers could technically shift their energy consumption mix to two-thirds electricity and one third gas from an even split today, he said. But this would increase costs, and overseas competitors are already able to produce at 20pc cheaper, even after transport costs. More niche concerns can also make electrification more difficult, Roubanovitch said. Producers of crops in greenhouses use exhaust CO2 from fossil fuels as an input, and so would need to replace this if they electrify. And for specialist industrial cleaning firms, which currently use gas-fired equipment, manufacturers do not produce electric-powered versions, as there is only demand in Europe for such units, compared with much larger global demand for gas-fired equipment. Subsidies driving some change There are a host of subsidy schemes for businesses to electrify industrial applications. Under the large industrial projects decarbonisation scheme (GPID), €1.6bn in capital and operating expenditure subsidy was last month awarded to seven firms. Smaller projects can receive subsidy from the "decarb-ind" or "decarb-flash" schemes, which since 2020 have disbursed almost €600mn. These schemes target primarily decarbonisation, which can include energy efficiency or conversion to biomass, but also includes electrification. One GPID winner, chemical producer Syensqo, is to replace two gas-fired boilers with an electric-powered one. But the large number of different schemes could be a disadvantage. "It can be very confusing," Benedicte Genthon, general delegate of power industry association UFE, told Argus . UFE supports the implementation of a single process for firms to obtain access to subsidy. Targeted technologies can move ahead Some electrification of gas-consuming industrial processes can make economic sense even without subsidy, and have short payback periods. Installing mechanical steam recompressors, which cut large amounts of gas demand but add some power demand, can be profitable within three years, according to Longhini. The units are relatively easy to install and require few other adjustments to processes, Longhini said. And heat pumps for producing hot water are an attractive option for firms, UFE told Argus , as they require few changes to processes to be made. By Rhys Talbot Industry gas demand vs manufacturing output Index High-voltage manufacturing consumption TWh/yr High-, medium-voltage demand GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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