European gasoline market flips to backwardation

Spanish Market: Oil products
18/03/26

The European gasoline market structure flipped at the close on 17 March, with future prices now at discounts to prompt values.

The Eurobob oxy swap front-month spread switched to this backwardation structure, with the April contract at a $5.25/t discount to March at the close.

The structure began softening in early March as supply concerns arising from the US-Iran war raised prompt values.

The March/April spread is typically at a $25-30/t premium for April, reflecting the higher value of summer-specification materials to those of winter-grade gasoline. Summer-grade gasoline fetches a premium because the amount of cheaper components, such as butane, is reduced in order to reduce evaporability by lowering Reid vapour pressure (RVP).

The start of the Russia-Ukraine war had a similar effect on the Eurobob market structure, wherein the March and April contracts widened to an $11/t backwardation because prompt availability appeared thin.

By Atishya Nayak

Ebob market structure $/t

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18/03/26

Australian cabinet to convene over fuel shortage fears

Sydney, 18 March (Argus) — Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese will convene a cabinet meeting with state and territory leaders on 19 March, he said today, as pressure grows on the federal government to act to prevent further disruptions to fuel availability. Canberra maintains that recent supply issues have been driven by a spike in demand from panic buying rather than constraints in supply chains. The government has not ruled out future fuel rationing but said it has no plans to introduce such measures at this stage. State governments have already signalled they will intervene if necessary to ensure supply to regional areas with limited access to fuel. The federal government has already taken some actions to alleviate supply issues such as releasing up to 762mn litres (4.8mn bl) of gasoline and gasoil from the minimum stockpile obligation and temporarily relaxed fuel standards, allowing Australian refiner Ampol to sell gasoline at 50ppm sulphur content, above the national standard of 10ppm, for a 60-day period. By Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New York Harbor RBOB, ULSD hit multiyear highs: Update

17/03/26

New York Harbor RBOB, ULSD hit multiyear highs: Update

Updates to include closing prices. Houston, 17 March (Argus) — New York Harbor (NYH) diesel and gasoline prices reached fresh multiyear highs on Tuesday, driven upward by renewed Iranian strikes on the UAE that sent Nymex benchmarks sharply higher. The front month April Nymex ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) contract — the primary benchmark for US distillates — climbed back above $4/USG on Tuesday, erasing nearly 18¢/USG in losses from the previous session. NYH barge ULSD closed at $3.99/USG on Tuesday, while barge ultra low sulfur heating oil (ULSH) reached $3.77/USG — up almost 18¢/USG from Monday and marking fresh three year highs for both products. NYH gasoline markets followed the broader rally, with rising outright prices even as cash differentials weakened. The April RBOB Nymex contract hit $3.12/USG — the strongest level in more than three-and-a-half years. This helped lift NYH barge RBOB to $2.88/USG, an increase of more than 12¢/USG and the highest outright value in 30 months. Iran's latest attack on Fujairah port on 17 March started a fire and disrupted terminal operations, according to authorities. . The escalation follows Tehran's pledge to retaliate against the UAE for hosting recent US strikes on Iran's Kharg island. The US–Israel war on Iran has now stretched into its third week with no signs of easing. The strait of Hormuz — a critical transit point for crude and refined products — remains a major vulnerability, particularly for diesel markets, as the region supplies crude grades well suited for distillate production. Nymex basis volatility intensified again on Tuesday, dampening buying interest across the Northeast. But with no signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, upward pressure on prices is expected to persist through the week. By Craig Ross Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Import woes drive LA jet fuel to 44-month high

17/03/26

Import woes drive LA jet fuel to 44-month high

Seattle, 17 March (Argus) — Prompt-month jet fuel prices in Los Angeles jumped to a 44-month high on Tuesday after news broke of a fuel export cap in South Korea, which supplies the majority of jet imports to the US west coast. Jet fuel for as far forward as May delivery in Los Angeles was heard traded sharply higher, although March volume began to depreciate in trade heard by the afternoon. Trade for March was heard as high as April Nymex +40¢/USG before declining in a sale at +25¢/USG — still a double-digit increase from business on Monday that had ranged from April Nymex +10-14¢/USG. Cash prices for March jet fuel drew additional support from a higher daily Nymex settlement and reached $4.32/USG, the highest level since June 2022. The forward curve for spot jet fuel prices remains positive in Los Angeles, with April volume heard traded at May Nymex +70¢/USG on Tuesday, a 25¢/USG jump from the prior day. For May, buyers in Los Angeles were heard to have paid from June Nymex +55-80¢/USG. War between the US and Iran — and its subsequent upheaval of key crude shipping routes — has introduced a new obstacle for the west coast jet fuel supply chain. South Korea on Tuesday announced mandatory export caps on refined petroleum products , limiting shipments to 2025's monthly levels as the nation moves to safeguard domestic supply. South Korea in 2025 supplied an average of 87pc of jet fuel imported at the US west coast each month, at about 80,000 b/d, according to the Energy Information Administration. The US west coast was expected to become more reliant on jet fuel imports with the closure of two California refineries in the past six months: Phillips 66's 139,000 b/d Los Angeles complex, which shuttered late last year, and now Valero's 150,000 b/d Benicia site due for full idling by April. By Jasmine Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

European refiners make hay as spot buyers scramble

17/03/26

European refiners make hay as spot buyers scramble

London, 17 March (Argus) — Urgent war-time demand for European refiners' output is boosting their returns, with the cost falling on those who need to make spot purchases, especially if they are locked into re-selling on pre-war contracts. Refiners sound the most confident of all Europe's oil market participants, as prices suggest they can pass higher crude costs onto buyers of products, and even sell at a higher margin due to restrictions on product imports from the Mideast Gulf. Soberly but frankly, a European refinery source said if the strait of Hormuz remains closed for at least two months, it will lead to the most profitable month in his company's history. Refiners that hedged product margins against crude will miss some of the profits. Market participants say European refiners are more hedged than usual this year, tempted by derivative prices on offer during a tight spell in the fourth quarter of 2025 . Europe's refiners are less exposed to Mideast Gulf crude than their Asian counterparts. Some say they draw further reassurance from their use of US light sweet WTI, or Kazakh light sour CPC Blend, neither of which substitutes easily for medium and heavy sour Gulf crude. The amount of these crudes loading from US and Black Sea ports for Europe in March to date appears to be around 2.67mn b/d, according to as-yet-incomplete Vortexa tracking data, which would be more than the 2.62mn b/d average in 2025. European refiners are not cutting runs nor finding governments restricting their exports , like their Asian peers. Asian run cuts are encouraging for European refiners, because they dampen potential competition for the crude that is available. Spot product buyers are paying the most obvious costs of the crisis, as most spot premiums against forward benchmarks have risen rapidly. Buyers on long-term contracts are paying more than before the war, but less than spot buyers as they are exposed to higher benchmarks but pre-war premiums. Companies that need to buy in the spot market to deliver on long-term contracts are losing the wide margin between the premiums, while companies taking delivery on long-term contracts and re-selling in the spot market are collecting that margin. Jet fuel benchmarks and spot premiums have rallied most strongly of the products. Jet demand is not yet suffering, partly because European airlines hedge much of their exposure. In effect, they have locked banks into covering much of the cost. Franco-Dutch Air France-KLM has begun to raise ticket prices, but others are still saying their hedges will preserve their prices. Market participants said it is possible that banks contributed to the extreme spike in jet fuel prices last week, if some felt compelled to buy in order to exit the short side of airline hedges. At the other end of the spectrum, naphtha is proving the least rewarding product for European refiners , because gasoline is still in low-demand season, and because petrochemical crackers are locked into monthly olefin contract prices, so may cut volumes rather than buy naphtha at current prices. Both those constraints on naphtha prices are time-limited: gasoline demand will rise in April and May, and petrochemical crackers will be able to set new olefin prices. At least one petrochemical cracker has cut run rates as feedstock prices have soared. Those integrated with downstream petrochemical units may have more flexibility over sale prices than those selling ethylene and propylene. Market participants say the outlook is clouded, with the war upending any consensus about near-term fundamentals. Comments like "not fundamentally justified," "the wheels have come off," and "crazy," are not unusual. Brokers have been quoting swaps for clients at spreads of more than $100/t against their peers. Counting the same number of tankers inbound, one trader said "that's a lot," while another said "that's peanuts." One said the market is very quiet, another in the same market says they have seen lots of deals done. By Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Attacks on UAE energy assets increase as war broadens

17/03/26

Attacks on UAE energy assets increase as war broadens

Dubai, 17 March (Argus) — Iran and its regional proxies have stepped up attacks on Mideast Gulf energy infrastructure. The latest attacks in the UAE came after Tehran vowed retaliation against the country for hosting US attacks on Iran's Kharg island. Repeated drone strikes on Fujairah port have exposed the vulnerability of the UAE's main oil storage and bunkering hub. An attack on Tuesday, 17 March started a fire and disrupted terminal operations, according to authorities. No injuries were reported, while market sources said at least two terminals were affected, forcing some berths to close and vessels to move to anchorage. The latest strike came only a day after a fire in the Fujairah industrial zone halted oil loadings, and followed a drone attacks on 14 March that damaged at least two crude storage tanks. On Monday 16 March, operations at Abu Dhabi's Shah gas field were suspended after a drone attack caused a fire at the site. This appeared to be the first direct hit on an upstream asset in the UAE. The field, jointly operated by state-owned Adnoc and US firm Occidental Petroleum, is located 210 km southwest of Abu Dhabi near the Saudi border, in an increasingly exposed energy corridor. Saudi Aramco's 1mn b/d Shaybah oil field was also targeted by drones for three consecutive days since March 7 . Shah is one of the world's largest sour gas developments and Adnoc said in May it was exploring raising its capacity to 1.85bn ft³/d from 1.45bn ft³/d. The site also accounts for around 5pc of global sulphur production. The attacks on Shah and Fujairah's terminals underline how the conflict is spilling across the UAE's energy sector, from storage and export infrastructure to upstream production assets, as the US Iran moves into its third week. The escalation comes after US strikes on more than 90 military targets on Iran's Kharg Island on 13 March, after which Tehran said the weapons had been fired from the UAE, including from a location very close to Dubai .Trump later threatened to target energy infrastructure on the island to force Tehran to reopen the strait of Hormuz, though the initial strikes avoided oil facilities at Iran's main crude export hub. Published official figures suggest the UAE has come under more attacks than several of its Gulf peers since the war began on 28 February. The UAE said its air defences have encountered at least 304 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles and 1,627 drones. That compares with 178 ballistic missiles and 384 drones intercepted by Kuwait, and 106 ballistic missiles and 176 drones by Bahrain. In neighbouring Iraq, the Majnoon oil field in the Basrah province was also targeted in recent days, according to state news agency Ina. The field is one of Iraq's giant oilfields, and officials have previously said output is around 240,000 b/d with plans to raise capacity to 450,000 b/d. The bulk of recent attacks has focused on refining and storage infrastructure. A fire broke out at an unidentified facility in Adnoc's 817,000 b/d Ruwais refining complex on March 10, while Saudi Aramco's 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery on the country's east coast was targeted twice that week, on March 2 and March 4. Bahrain's 405,000 b/d Sitra refinery and Kuwait's 346,000 b/d Mina al-Ahmadi refinery have also come under attack. The conflict has not been one-sided, with Israel also hitting Iranian oil facilities, including storage depots in and around Tehran, according to state media . By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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European gasoline market flips to backwardation

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