Mideast fuel risks likely to boost Japan’s nuclear push

Spanish Market: Coal, Electricity, Natural gas
21/04/26

Nuclear power could gain further momentum in Japan's energy security strategy, because recent disruptions to crude and LNG supplies from the Middle East have underscored its importance in the resource-poor country, especially as Tokyo pushes for decarbonisation.

Japan has so far secured sufficient crude volumes by releasing emergency stockpiles and sourcing alternative cargoes. But the disruptions have exposed the hard reality of Japan's fuel security, which has compelled the country to increase coal-fired output to conserve LNG for power generation, while it grapples with distribution bottlenecks in petroleum products and oil-derived goods essential to a wider range of industries.

Nuclear energy is a price-insulated and domestically controllable source of baseload power, despite its safety issues and political sensitivity. Rising tensions in the Middle East have once again highlighted the magnitude of the social and economic impact that can arise when energy supply risks materialise, Akio Mimura, chairman of Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, said in his opening remarks at the group's annual conference on 14 April, adding that nuclear is as a "quasi-domestic energy source".

Japan holds roughly three years' worth of uranium stocks, Mimura said. This is compared with crude and oil product reserves covering 243 days of consumption at the end of February, before the onset of the Middle East conflict, as well as LNG inventories equivalent to roughly three weeks of demand. Mimura emphasised nuclear power's supply stability and self-reliance, as well as its role as a decarbonised energy source unaffected by weather conditions.

A 1GW reactor can reduce consumption of natural gas by 850,000 t/yr, oil by 1.55mn kl/yr (26,710 b/d) and coal by 2.22mn t/yr, according to estimates by the trade and industry ministry Meti in June 2024.

Japan's prime minister Sanae Takaichi has aggressively promoted the use of nuclear power well before the Middle East conflict disrupted fuel flows through the strait of Hormuz, citing the need to lower electricity bills. The recent war-driven rise in spot prices for crude, LNG and coal is expected to push up Japan's import costs for such fuels in March-April and be passed onto retail electricity bills from June, during the summer peak demand season. It remains unclear whether Tokyo will resume subsidies for power and gas utility costs, which ended at the end of March.

Japan currently has 33 nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of 33GW, but only 15 reactors are operational after passing stricter safety reviews by the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) and securing approval from local authorities. The latest reactor brought back on line is the 1.4GW Kashiwazaki-Kariwa No.6 unit, which resumed commercial operations on 16 April after a 14-year hiatus following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.

The government has updated its nuclear policy to enable more effective use of existing reactors, including extending their lifetimes beyond the 60-year limit by excluding offline periods, such as those for safety inspections and count injunctions, from service-life calculations. The NRA earlier this month revised the deadline for installing anti-terrorism facilities, shifting the start of the five-year transitional period from the approval of construction plans to the date of pre-operational inspections for reactors not yet subject to the original deadline.

The NRA's latest decision would allow the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa No.6 reactor to operate until April 2031, instead of September 2029 under the current rules, while plant operator Tokyo Electric Power plans to complete the counter-terrorism work in September 2031. Nuclear supply from the No.6 reactor is expected to reduce LNG consumption by around 1.1mn t/yr, Takaichi said in late March. This would cover around 30pc of Japan's LNG imports passing through the strait of Hormuz, Meti minister Ryosei Akazawa said on 14 April.

Japan's strategic energy plan targets nuclear power to account for 20pc of the power mix in the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year, up from 11pc in 2024-25, as part of efforts to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 73pc from 2013-14 levels. The country's GHG emissions stood at 994mn t of CO2 in 2024-25, down by 29pc from the baseline year, environment ministry data released on 14 April show.

By Motoko Hasegawa

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21/04/26

Iran’s parliament speaker rejects talks amid US threats

Dubai, 21 April (Argus) — Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has downplayed the prospects of a new round of peace talks with the US in Islamabad and reiterated Tehran's readiness to return to armed conflict if the current two-week ceasefire expires without a deal this week. Iran does "not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats", Ghalibaf said on Tuesday in a post on social media platform X. Ghalibaf was referring to a possible second round of Pakistani-mediated talks that both sides had suggested could take place this week in Islamabad. He has emerged as one of the key figures in Iran's wartime leadership structure. A first round of talks took place on 11 April, just days after a two-week ceasefire was agreed late on 7 April. Those negotiations, which lasted 21 hours, failed to produce any agreement. The ceasefire is due to expire on 22 April. US president Donald Trump said on Sunday that he would send his envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad for a new round of talks this week. US vice-president JD Vance, who led the US delegation in the first round, will not take part because of security concerns, Trump said. Tehran has since suggested it would not send a delegation to the Pakistani capital, citing "excessive US demands" and the ongoing US naval blockade on Iranian ports, which it has described as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Ghalibaf reiterated that position today, saying Trump was seeking to "turn this negotiating table… into a table of surrender, or the basis on which to justify renewed warmongering". Over the weekend, Trump repeated his threat to attack Iranian infrastrcture, saying Washington was offering Iran "a very fair and reasonable DEAL" and warning that if Tehran refused, "the US is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge in Iran". Ghalibaf appeared to respond to that rhetoric, saying Iran is "prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield" if the ceasefire expires and the US and Israel resume attacks on Iran. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Markets underestimate US-Iran volatility shock: Citadel

20/04/26

Markets underestimate US-Iran volatility shock: Citadel

Lausanne, 20 April (Argus) — Commodity markets entered the US-Iran conflict with a fairly high level of escalation risk already priced in, but still sharply underestimated the volatility shock that followed, Citadel's head of commodities Sebastian Barrack said at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne today. In the run-up to the conflict, market estimates put the probability of a disruptive event at around 50-70pc, Barrack said. He said markets had done "a pretty good job" of pricing the range of likely outcomes before the conflict began, but failed to price volatility adequately. Oil and gas volatility rose by about 300pc in the first weeks of the conflict, far above levels implied beforehand. Barrack contrasted the episode with the market shock that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At that time, gas volatility surged by around 500pc and margin requirements jumped roughly 15-fold, placing severe strain on trading firms and forcing some participants to cut positions because they could not finance them. This time, the sector entered the crisis in a stronger financial position, with larger capital buffers and more robust funding lines following the windfall profits of recent years, he said. Cash-futures disconnect not unusual Barrack rejected suggestions that futures markets had become detached from physical fundamentals, arguing instead that divergences between cash and futures prices reflect different parts of the market solving different problems. Cash markets — particularly in Asia — have shown stress more directly, he said. Futures markets, by contrast, increasingly reflect assumptions that the disruption will eventually ease and that deferred supply will return. Longer-dated prices are also being anchored by producer hedging, especially in the US, where sellers have taken advantage of high prices to lock in margins. The distinction matters beyond energy. Similar tensions between tight physical supply and forward pricing have emerged across metals markets in 2026, increasingly forcing investors to separate near-term supply stress from expectations of medium-term rebalancing. Barrack also said the surge in real-time information through social media has changed how traders process events. Market-moving remarks from US president Donald Trump and other political leaders have accelerated price reactions, but this has not reduced the need for detailed analysis of physical flows, inventory responses and the mechanics of supply disruption, he said. Politicians better prepared Barrack said policymakers now have a much stronger grasp of commodity market mechanics than they did during the 2022 energy crisis. Governments, caught behind the curve four years ago, have since developed closer links with industry participants and improved their understanding of how physical shortages are resolved through demand destruction, stockdraws and policy responses, he said. One area where policymakers may still lag market participants is in identifying changes in physical flows in real time, Barrack added, particularly when supply chains begin to adjust rapidly following a shock. By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Kazakhstan, Mongolia to boost coal co-operation

20/04/26

Kazakhstan, Mongolia to boost coal co-operation

London, 20 April (Argus) — Kazakhstan and Mongolia held discussions today to boost co-operation in various energy sectors, including coal. Kazakhstan's energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov met with Mongolia's industry and mineral resources minister Gongoryn Damdinnyam to discuss ways in which the two countries can develop their energy sectors. The discussions included jointly developing projects for deep coal processing and analysing coal specifications. Countries in central Asia have recently pushed for developments in their respective coal sectors, with several having already received investments from China , Russia and the US . Kazakhstan plans to produce 128.9mn t of coal this year which, if achieved, would represent an 11pc increase from 115.9mn t produced in 2025. Kazakhstan is the largest coal producer in central Asia and aims to aggressively ramp up coal production this year to increase coal-fired power generation as part of a national project . The country aims to increase exports of thermal coal after shipping around 30mn t last year to Russia, Poland, Uzbekistan, Turkey, India and Malaysia. Mongolia exported 27.5mn t of coal in January-March, up by 57pc on the year, all to China. The country did, however, set a more conservative target of 90mn t coal production earlier this year, likely because of the risk of falling metallurgical coal demand from Chinese steelmakers. Separately, Kazakhstan plans to cut emissions from coal-fired power plants by just over a third as part of its national project starting this year, the energy ministry announced today. This will be achieved by modernising existing coal plants and using modern equipment to build its new fleet of supercritical coal-fired power plants. By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran yet to commit to new US ceasefire talks

20/04/26

Iran yet to commit to new US ceasefire talks

Dubai, 20 April (Argus) — Iran has signaled deep mistrust of the US and is yet to commit to joining potential renewed negotiations in Pakistan. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei today said Tehran is wary of Washington's intentions. "We must be cautious of the enemy's conspiracies," Baghaei said in comments carried by state-news agency IRNA, adding that Iran "cannot forget" recent experiences in which diplomacy was, in his view, undermined. Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian echoed that stance today, calling for a "rational approach" to the current situation while stressing the need for "utmost vigilance" in dealings with the US, who he said had been displaying contradictory behavior. He said Iran should pursue diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions while continuing to resist external pressure. The remarks come as a two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and nominally in effect until 22 April, faces growing strain. The US at the weekend said it intercepted and disabled an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel attempting to breach its blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran described this as "armed piracy" and warned of potential retaliation. Oil prices rose today with the prospect of the ceasefire ending. At 11:20 GMT, the Ice front-month June Brent contract was at $95.19/bl, up by $4.81/bl from its settlement on 17 April, when it ended $9.01/bl lower. The weekend episode underscores the central friction point between the two sides: the US blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran's chokehold over commercial transit through the strait of Hormuz. Baghaei today rejected what he described as "unrealistic" US demands, reiterating that key issues — including its missile programme and broader defensive capabilities — are not open for negotiation. But neither side appears to be closing the door entirely. US officials had been preparing for a new round of talks in Pakistan ahead of the ceasefire's expiry, and regional mediators continue to engage both sides, suggesting that diplomatic channels remain active despite the escalation in rhetoric. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: Brazil gas supply outlook improves, demand unclear

20/04/26

Q&A: Brazil gas supply outlook improves, demand unclear

Sao Paulo, 20 April (Argus) — Major domestic upstream projects and a new dynamic for imports from Argentina could significantly expand natural gas supply in Brazil in this decade. But uncertainty around demand growth and regulatory clarity may determine actual market growth, crude, gas and biofuels institute IBP's executive director Sylvie D'Apote told Argus. Edited highlights follow. Brazil's gas market has several ongoing projects to increase supply, such as the equatorial margin, the Pelotas basin and a gas storage initiative in the northeast. What are the project's main opportunities and challenges ? It is still too early to tell whether the equatorial margin or Pelotas will result in commercial discoveries or whether such discoveries will be gas-rich. While these are promising exploration frontiers, their contribution to gas supply remains uncertain at this stage. It is more relevant to focus on projects that are already advancing and are expected to significantly increase available gas volumes over the next 5-10 years. Two developments stand out: the Raia project, offshore Rio de Janeiro, and the Sergipe Aguas Profundas project in the northeast. Together, these two projects are expected to add approximately 50mn m³/d of supply, roughly equivalent to the current firm gas market in Brazil. This represents a step change in available volumes and highlights Brazil's near-term supply potential. Onshore gas production is also expected to grow. While smaller in scale, these projects can play an important role in regional development and may offer more competitive supply, especially at a local level. Gas storage is also critical for market development. It is essential to increase flexibility, improve system balancing and support a more liquid and resilient gas market. But its development depends on a well-defined regulatory framework and a viable business model, including clear rules on access, tariffs, remuneration, and risk allocation. Overall, the potential for supply expansion is significant. The key challenge is to ensure that this potential translates into effective market expansion. This will require regulatory clarity and, critically, the development of firm demand capable of absorbing these additional volumes. More Brazilian participants are seeking authorization from hydrocarbon regulator ANP to import Argentinian gas. What can we expect from interactions with neighboring countries? The extent to which Argentinian gas can penetrate the Brazilian market will depend on its competitiveness and its ability to integrate into Brazil's increasingly diversified and competitive energy market. Brazil has multiple sources of gas supply — including pre-salt production, onshore gas, LNG and Bolivian imports in the medium term. Any additional supply must compete on price, flexibility and reliability. Securing long-term, firm contracts in Brazil, which are typically required to underpin cross-border infrastructure investments and ensure the viability of regional integration, will also be a challenge. Therefore, Argentinian gas is more likely to play a complementary role in the near term — functioning as "opportunity gas" within supply portfolios — rather than serving as a structural solution for the Brazilian market. What will be the Middle East war's impacts on Brazil's gas market? The main risk for Brazil is increased price volatility and exposure to global market shocks. The war has had a direct impact on global LNG dynamics, temporarily removing a significant share of LNG supply from the market and tightening the global balance. This has led to higher spot prices — particularly in Asia — and redirected LNG flows. Brazil, as a marginal LNG importer and a price taker in the global LNG market, is exposed to global price signals and faces stronger competition for available cargoes. This may increase LNG import costs, with a particularly strong impact on power prices, since most LNG imports are directed to power generation and are typically activated during periods of low hydroelectric power output. Additionally, a large part of Brazil's gas supply contracts is indexed to international benchmarks, meaning that global price movements can also be transmitted to non-power gas users. At the same time, Brazil is not among the most vulnerable markets. Domestic production — especially from the pre-salt — and pipeline imports from neighboring countries provide a degree of diversification and partial insulation from international shocks. But this does not eliminate exposure. In a sustained high-price environment, Brazil can struggle to secure cargoes, which would increase price volatility for industrial users and power generation, as well as bring broader inflationary pressures. National energy policy council (CNPE) approved in early April a resolution setting a 0.5pc greenhouse-gas emissions reduction target for the gas market in 2026. How will this impact Brazil's energy transition process? CNPE's decision to set an initial 0.5pc greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2026 will allow the fuel of the future law's policy framework to be implemented. This lower initial target — the 0.5pc target is below the legal starting point of 1pc — reflects the mines and energy ministry's efforts to balance ambition with realism, taking into account current biomethane supply availability and infrastructure constraints. It is less about immediate impact and more about establishing the foundations of a new market. Biomethane has clear potential both as a complement to gas and as a decarbonization vector across its various applications. It can also diversify supply sources and enable the expansion of gas use into regions not currently served by the conventional gas network. It also offers opportunities for circular economy solutions, particularly in sectors such as agriculture and waste management. That said, the policy's success will depend on its implementation. The development of the biomethane market requires careful technical and economic calibration to ensure that decarbonization objectives are achieved without undermining affordability and competitiveness. ANP is facing a significant challenge to design and implement key instruments such as the biomethane certificate of origin, which will be central to market transparency and credibility. Ultimately, this is a positive step toward decarbonizing Brazil's economy. Its effectiveness will depend on ensuring that the regulatory framework provides clear signals, minimizes distortions and allows biomethane to develop in a way that is economically sustainable and compatible with the gas market's broader competitiveness. By Marcos Mortari Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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