10/07/26
Australia's east coast to have surplus gas in 4Q: ACCC
Australia's east coast to have surplus gas in 4Q: ACCC
Sydney, 10 July (Argus) — Gas supply volumes entering Australia's east coast
grid will be more than sufficient to meet demand in October-December, the
Australian Consumer and Competition Commission's (ACCC) Gas Inquiry June 2026
interim report said. The east coast gas market is predicted to have a 13PJ
(347mn m³) surplus even if LNG producers export all their uncontracted gas, the
ACCC reported on 10 July. The October-March period is generally a time of lower
gas demand due to warmer temperatures and higher wind and solar power
generation. The forecast is the highest surplus predicted for the final quarter
of the year since 2023. A possible 12PJ shortfall in July-September forecast in
the ACCC's March report is unlikely to emerge because Shell-operated QGC's
rescheduling of maintenance from April to July may result in exports over this
period dipping by up to 8PJ and similar volumes made available to the domestic
market, the ACCC said. The Iona storage facility is at record levels for this
time of year, the report noted. The 26PJ facility in Victoria state is at 82pc
of capacity on 10 July, up from 64pc a year earlier. The ongoing conflict in the
Mideast Gulf region has had no material impact on domestic spot prices and
demand and prices remain suppressed, the ACCC said. The federal government plans
to oversupply the eastern states' domestic grid from July 2027 via a domestic
supply obligation (DSO) equal to 20pc of LNG exports imposed on Australia's 10
LNG projects. The aim is to further push down gas prices, but the DSO is opposed
by most gas producers and Queensland's state government . Supply boost needed
Long-term supply projections confirm more investment is needed to meet demand,
the ACCC said on the proposed DSO. Policies must incentivise investment and
promote greater diversity and competition in supply, the report said.
Gladstone-based LNG producers control about 84pc of proved and probable (2P)
eastern states reserves directly or via purchases from associated entities.
These producers must further develop their reserves and resources to meet
obligations, particularly under a DSO, the ACCC said. "Reducing barriers for new
entrants and producers seeking to develop prospective resources would help
increase and diversify supply, increase competition and put downward pressure on
prices over the longer term," ACCC commissioner Anna Brakey said. Domestic gas
demand has been sluggish so far this Australian winter, due to higher
temperatures and increased battery storage, reducing demand for both heating gas
and gas-fired power generation. By Tom Major Eastern LNG producers' longer-term
position, 2028-38 PJ 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2P
production 1,301 1,241 1,134 1,067 1,019 952 895 841 781 716 664 Third party
purchases 196 241 244 251 263 280 282 276 260 251 239 Total supply 1,497 1,482
1,377 1,318 1,282 1,231 1,177 1,116 1,041 967 902 Sales to the domestic market
83 83 84 73 60 56 36 16 16 16 16 LNG SPAs 1,290 1,317 1,263 1,251 1,246 1,222
1,223 1,068 113 - - Total demand 1,373 1,400 1,348 1,324 1,306 1,277 1,259 1,084
129 16 16 Source: ACCC Send comments and request more information at
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