01/10/26
Pakistani DAP stocks low, as imports awaited
London, 1 October (Argus) — Pakistani DAP inventories edged up in August to
253,000t, with combined imports and domestic production slightly outpacing an
uptick in demand. While stocks look fragile at the start of the October-March
rabi season, a robust import line-up is likely to be enough to ensure offtakers
are covered. Pakistan imported 49,000t of DAP in August, just short of the
five-year average for the month, according to NFDC data. Domestic output was at
its highest since May 2024, at 79,000t. Demand rose to 126,000t in August as
farmers moved to cover potato season. Despite returning closer to long-term
norms, this was still 14,000t short of the five-year average for August, as high
prices continued to deter buyers. DAP stocks began September at just over
250,000t, down from 316,000t last year. Importers expect 2026 offtake to be down
by 20-30pc because of high global and domestic prices. And early hopes for a DAP
subsidy to support wheat this quarter have fallen flat. Even with a 20-30pc drop
against the 2021-25 average for the quarter, DAP appetite in October-December
could still be 415,000-474,000t. Based on end-August inventories, 73,000t of
NFDC-estimated September production and 125,000t of demand — as well as the
50,000t of DAP imports lined up in September according to Argus data — stocks at
the start of October could edge down by 2,000t on the month to 251,000t. While
insufficient on its own to cover expected fourth-quarter demand, importers have
lined up 177,000t of DAP for October, according to Argus data. With steady
domestic production, this would be sufficient for Pakistan to end the year with
robust carryover stocks, according to importers and traders. By Adrien Seewald
Pakistan current season DAP inventories and offtake '000t Pakistan long-term DAP
inventories and offtake '000t Send comments and request more information at
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