Diplomatic efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz to navigation are revolving around an Iran-Omani understanding over the management of shipping routes leading to and from the Mideast Gulf.
Iran and Oman are close to issuing a joint statement specifying "geographical coordinates" of a safe transit route through Hormuz, "if some third parties do not obstruct work in this regard", Iran's foreign ministry said on Wednesday.
An Iran-Omani understanding could provide adequate diplomatic cover for President Donald Trump's administration to adhere to the terms of a deal it signed with Iran in June and set aside a month later. Trump may have been referring to the Iran-Omani dialogue when he began on 2 August to reference ongoing talks with Iran that he said would result in reopening Hormuz within a day or two.
Trump, speaking to reporters late on Tuesday, reiterated that a deal to reopen Hormuz could be concluded by Wednesday or Thursday. And US energy secretary Chris Wright noted on Tuesday: "We're very close to an arrangement that'll achieve both of the objectives: stop impeding the flow of traffic out through the strait of Hormuz and get energy flows going globally." Oil markets appear to be taking seriously US assurances that a deal is imminent.
Details of talks with Oman that Iran's foreign ministry shared last week indicate that Tehran is insisting on full control over ships entering the Mideast Gulf and at least partial oversight of the exit routes through the waterway.
That arrangement would fall short of the principle of freedom of navigation and unrestricted transit through the waterway that the US, European and Mideast Gulf governments said they are keen to re-establish. But the White House may have concluded — as it did in June — that Hormuz could not be reopened by military means.
Vessels transiting through Hormuz have primarily been using the Iranian-favored northern traffic lanes since mid-July. Iran has periodically attacked vessels sailing through a southern route skirting the Omani coast, which theoretically is protected by the US naval and air forces positioned in the region.
The Pentagon insists that the southern route remains open to navigation. But even numbers cited by the US military — 30 vessels over 2-3 August — fall far short of the pre-war transit levels through Hormuz of more than 100 vessels daily.
The now-defunct US-Iran "memorandum of understanding", signed in June, involved other concessions from Washington. The deal called for the US to lift its naval blockade on Iranian trade, to grant crude buyers unrestricted waivers to access Iranian oil and to give Tehran access to its frozen funds in foreign banks, estimated to total at least $24bn.
The US in mid-July reimposed the blockade, revoked the sanctions waiver and refused to allow Iran to repatriate its frozen funds. Tehran appears to be demanding similar concessions as a condition for reopening Hormuz to navigation.
The Iran-Omani understanding by itself would not make Hormuz safe for transit "because the factors that make the strait of Hormuz unsafe by the US, especially the naval blockade and other aggressive and threatening actions against Iran and its interests, still exist," Iran's foreign ministry said on Wednesday.
US-Iranian negotiations for more than a decade had focused on Tehran's nuclear program, a goal that Trump says remains his top priority. But the war Trump started has refocused diplomacy with Iran toward reopening a waterway that had been fully open to navigation before the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.
