Recoverable shale oil and condensate reserves in the Vaca Muerta unconventional formation are 30.1bn bl, nearly double the prior estimate, Argentina's energy secretary's office said on Thursday.
The previous total from 2013 was 16bn bl of technically recoverable shale oil and condensate, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
The study evaluated three technical factors, finding a 22pc increase in productive areas, a 39pc increase in net pay thickness — the rock formation capable of producing oil — and a 54pc increase in the recovery factor.
The numbers reflect Argentina's rapid transformation into one of South America's principal oil producers, with output in July at 914,900 b/d, up by 17pc from the same month last year.
State-run YPF leads a nine-company consortium, Vmos, that is finishing a crude export complex that includes a 437km (262-mile) pipeline from Vaca Muerta, in southern Neuquen province, to a dedicated export terminal in Punta Colorada, on the coast of Rio Negro province. It will have six storage tanks, each with a 750,000 bl capacity. It will begin pumping 190,000 b/d in the final quarter of this year and will increase to 390,000 b/d in mid-2027 and reach 550,000 b/d.
An existing, privately led consortium, Oldelval, is completing a new 207km pipeline that will add 220,000 b/d, bringing capacity to more than 700,000 b/d.
The combined Vmos-Oldelval pipeline puts the company on track to have capacity to export more than 1mn b/d in 2027.
In upstream, YPF's LLL Oil project will produce 240,000 b/d by 2032, while private companies operating in Vaca Muerta have submitted plans to ramp up production with new wells, adding another 310,000 b/d over the coming decade.
The new reserves were calculated by a multi-sector group that included representatives from the secretary's office, top production companies — Chevron, Pampa Energia, Pan American Energy, Pluspetrol, Tecpetrol, Vista and YPF — universities and the private oil and gas institute, IAPG.
