Indonesian met coke prices hit 26-month high

Spanish Market: Coking coal, Metals
26/08/26

Indonesian metallurgical coke prices jumped to a 26-month high today as severe dry weather conditions led to several coke producers declaring force majeure on deliveries.

The Argus-assessed 65 CSR Indonesian met price coke surged to $301.60/t fob Indonesia today, marking the highest level since 7 June 2024, when the Argus-assessed 65 CSR Indonesian met coke price was $301.50/t fob Indonesia.

Below-average rainfall had reduced river inflows sharply and raw water reservoir levels, prompting park management to impose mandatory water rationing on resident factories, an Indonesian coke producer told Argus. The restrictions limited producers' operating capacity and resulted in production curtailments.

The company expects relevant deliveries to be delayed by 5-10 calendar days and warned that delays could extend if dry conditions persist.

Indonesia coke offer levels were raised in response to the tight supply conditions as a result of the adverse weather.

A second Indonesian coke producer said that they were sold out for September-loading cargoes, but offers for October-loading cargoes were raised as high as $310/t fob Indonesia. They added that rising coking coal prices had contributed to the rising offers.

Firmer met coke prices came as imported coal prices surged given the open arbitrage window to China, market sources said.

First-tier Australian seaborne premium hard coking coal prices rebounded in August after mostly declining throughout July, primarily because of stronger demand from China, which invoked a series of higher-priced trades.

The Argus-assessed Australian premium low-volatile hard coking coal price was $255.90/t fob Australia today, surging by $39.60/t from $216.30/t fob Australia on 31 July.

By Romil Sethi and Lisa Cheng

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28/09/26

India’s steel boom redraws global coal, coke trade

Bali, 28 September (Argus) — India's expanding steel industry is set to reshape seaborne metallurgical coal and coke trade, with rising steel capacity driving higher imports while buyers diversify sourcing across Australia, Russia, the US, Mozambique and Indonesia. India's steel production has risen to around 169mn t in 2026 from 104mn t in 2021, while installed capacity has reached about 220mn t, Vasudev Pamnani, director of ¡Energy Natural Resources said at CT Asia 2026. Capacity is expected to approach 300mn t by 2030, creating additional demand for imported steelmaking raw materials. India consumes around 175mn t/yr of coking coal, but domestic supply accounts for only about 20mn t, leaving steelmakers heavily dependent on imports. Total coking coal and PCI imports are projected to reach around 120mn t by 2030, comprising roughly 90mn t of coking coal and 30mn t of PCI. Import sourcing is also shifting. Australia's share of India's coking coal supply has declined as buyers increasingly source from Russia, the US and Mozambique. Russian PCI has gained particularly strongly on competitive pricing and suitable quality. Metallurgical coke is following a similar growth path. India imported around 4mn t in the first seven months of 2026, putting full-year imports on track to reach about 6.5mn t. Imports could remain around 6mn-7mn t by 2030 as steelmakers compare imported coke with the cost of producing coke locally from imported coal. Indonesia has emerged as a key supplier, accounting for around 2.7mn t of India's coke imports in the first seven months of 2026. Competitive pricing, proximity and lower anti-dumping duties relative to some other origins have supported its rapid gains. Indonesia's expanding coke capacity could further reshape regional trade flows and potentially challenge China's position as the world's largest coke exporter. China, meanwhile, remains central to the broader seaborne market, with Shanxi supply disruptions tightening domestic coking coal availability and supporting international prices. For Indian buyers, delivered cost remains the key consideration. Freight, coal quality, blending requirements, anti-dumping duties and the cost of domestic coke production will determine the competitiveness of different origins. India's steel expansion is therefore creating a structural source of demand for seaborne coal and coke, while diversification of supply is opening opportunities for producers across a wider range of origins. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CME EU HRC trade reaches quarterly record

25/09/26

CME EU HRC trade reaches quarterly record

London, 25 September (Argus) — Trading volume on CME Group's European hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures contract reached a record high this quarter, according to Argus records. A total of 478,000t of futures had been traded in the third quarter as of 24 September, exceeding the previous quarterly record. Year-to-date traded volumes now stand at over 1.3m t, with over 400,000t traded each quarter so far this year. The latest quarterly performance reflects growing participation in the contract from steel producers, traders, service centres and end users seeking to hedge price risk amid heightened uncertainty surrounding European steel trade policy and import restrictions. "Third quarter futures volumes increased as some traders took long positions in expectation of prices rising following the imposition of tighter safeguard measures — this thesis was borne out in July but faltered somewhat in August and September, as the reality of low demand constrained physical price increases and weighed on the forward curve," a trader said, adding, "Recent trade has seen some longs rolling forward their exposure from the fourth quarter to the first, given the slower-than-expected physical increase." Since the contracts inception in 2020, annual volumes have risen each year. Current volumes indicate that 2026 is on track to become another record year for the contract if trade continues at a similar pace to the first three quarters. The CME European HRC contract has seen steadily rising participation over recent years as it has become an increasingly important risk-management tool for the region's flat steel market. Activity has been supported by market volatility, shifting trade flows and expectations around changes to EU steel import regulations. "We are seeing a broader mix of physical and financial participants becoming more active, which is helping to deepen liquidity," brokerage FIS' head of steel Robert Belcher said. "There has been an increase in trading, especially on spreads from physical traders, but also on quarter period trades in greater volumes than in the past from banks' end-user customers being the growing trader category in the market," GFI steel derivatives broker Henry Herbert said. By Carlo Da Cas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU steel ETS costs could hit €8.2bn by 2031

24/09/26

EU steel ETS costs could hit €8.2bn by 2031

Brussels, 24 September (Argus) — Europe's steel industry could see annual carbon costs rise from around €3.4bn ($3.9bn) in 2026 to €5.7bn in 2030 and €8.2bn in 2031 under proposed changes to the EU emissions trading system (ETS), European steel association Eurofer said on 24 September. "Free allocation should support decarbonisation investments and, in combination with an effective carbon border adjustment mechanism [CBAM] provide effective carbon leakage protection," the association said. It is seeking changes to the EU's CBAM, calling for a significant slow down in the CBAM factor — the rate at which free allowance allocation is phased out — over the next five years ( see table ). This would compensate for the mechanism's flaws, such as the lack of an export protection solution and resource reshuffling risks, alongside the lack of enabling conditions for decarbonisation investments in the current European and global macro-economic environment, Eurofer said. The lobby group is also calling on the EU to extend beyond 2030 a provision under which the main steel benchmark, hot metal, is based on prevailing blast-furnace technology rather than being reduced significantly under assumptions of a larger share of the low-carbon direct reduced iron (DRI) technology in overall production capacity. Without an extension, the hot metal benchmark value for 2031-35 could fall by as much as 50pc, Eurofer said. The benchmark is used to calculate each sector's free allowance allocations under the ETS. Eurofer is also calling for a structural solution to protect exports from CBAM-covered sectors and downstream industries. "Withdrawing carbon leakage protection too quickly risks undermining the very investments needed to decarbonise," Eurofer director-general Axel Eggert said. Eggert said investment decisions have been taken on around 35mn t/yr of low-carbon steel capacity initially planned to become operational between 2027 and 2032. But projects covering more than 10mn t/yr of steel capacity have stalled as the business case has weakened. The group also proposed that all revenues generated from the phase-out of free allowances for CBAM sectors should be reinvested fully in those sectors. Eurofer estimates carbon costs for conventional blast-furnace steel could reach around €100/t by 2030 and exceed €200/t from 2031, levels it says would render the production route economically unviable. This assumes emission allowance prices at €100/t CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2026-30 and at €150/t CO2e in 2031-35, an annual reduction rate of heat and power benchmarks at 2pc, and cross sectoral correction factors in line with scenario "CL 90_50" in the commission's impact assessments from the July ETS review proposal. The association estimates a free allocation shortage of 50pc in 2030, and 76pc in 2031, under the same proposal. The carbon cost estimations also assume that EU steel production is at 130mn t — on par with 2024 levels, and decarbonisation investments are commissioned by 2030 and fully operational as of 2032 — with a capacity of 17mn t of DRI and 36mn t of electric arc furnace steel production capacity. By Dafydd ab Iago Eurofer's proposal for CBAM factor % 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 European Commission's proposal 97.5 95.0 91.5 81.0 59.0 48.0 37.5 27.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 0.0 Eurofer proposal 97.5 95.0 95.0 92.5 90.0 82.0 65.0 50.0 35.0 20.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 — Eurofer Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU car registrations rise 5pc on year in August

24/09/26

EU car registrations rise 5pc on year in August

London, 24 September (Argus) — New EU car registrations rose by just under 5pc in August compared with the same month a year earlier, broadly in line with growth since the start of this year. New EU car registrations increased by 4.5pc on the year to almost 710,000 units in August, while January-August registrations grew by 5.3pc from a year earlier to 7.5mn units, according to data from the European automobile manufacturers association Acea. The five biggest countries for new car registrations all saw year-on-year rises of more than 2pc in August, with Spain and Poland leading with increases of 12pc and 8pc, respectively. Demand for electric vehicles (EVs) remained strong, driven by market support measures and a broader model offering, Acea said. But registration data suggest that EV adoption is largely displacing gasoline and diesel vehicle sales rather than driving significant growth in overall vehicle demand. Across the EU, EFTA and the UK, total new car registrations in January-August rose by 5.8pc from a year earlier, while battery EV registrations increased by 39pc and plug-in hybrid registrations rose by 22pc. Gasoline and diesel registrations fell by 18pc and 19pc, respectively, over the same period. By Alice Collyer New car registrations Country Aug 26 ±% Aug 25 EU 708,211 4.5 EU-EFTA-UK 832,637 5.3 Germany 212,563 2.6 France 94,349 7.4 Italy 69,420 3.2 Spain 68,544 11.8 Poland 45,907 8.1 — Acea Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia faces critical minerals processing choice

24/09/26

Australia faces critical minerals processing choice

Sydney, 24 September (Argus) — Australia must invest in developing an evidence-based, competitive set of critical minerals, rather than aiming to capture a broad and vague midstream supply chain, attendees at this week's AusIMM Critical Minerals Conference in Brisbane heard. Canberra risks sinking money into projects which are "strategically attractive in theory but structurally unrealistic in practice" if it does not refine its goals, Critical Minerals Association Australia managing director Namali Mackay said on 21 September. The federal government set a wide-reaching aim to build sovereign capability in critical minerals processing and extract more value onshore from Australian resources in its 2023-30 critical minerals strategy . The Queensland government has also outlined a goal of moving critical minerals from the ‘pit-to-port' model to a ‘pit-to-process-to-product-to-port' model, according to state's 2025-30 manufacturing strategy. But Australia must take a realistic approach about which parts of the supply chain it can, and should capture, Mackay cautioned. Australia has experience and comparative advantages in shipping generic bulk commodities such as iron ore and alumina, but many critical minerals have no generic grade because they must go through lengthy qualification processes tied to a specific customer's needs, Mackay said. Moreover, Australia's midstream competitors in east and southeast Asia are closer to end-use centres of demand and benefit from industrial clustering, which allows closer cooperation between refiners and manufacturers, reducing logistics, energy, and human capital costs, she added. While midstream products lead to a value addition, they also come with higher costs associated with reagents, technological complexity, and skilled labour, Mackay warned, arguing that Australia should not see international collaboration on refining with partners in Japan, Korea, Europe and the US as a failure of domestic capability. There may be some cases where the strategic value of a mineral may outweigh its short-term market value, justifying government-subsidised production, but the government must clearly outline the rationale and public benefit in these instances, Mackay said. The devil is in the details The "sweet spot" for Australia's midstream processing ambitions could be generic intermediate products such as sulphates and oxides, engineering firm GHD's critical minerals lead Sam Taylor said. Australia should focus on products which can pivot to customer demand changes in today's rapidly shifting market, Taylor said, citing lithium sulphate as an example of an intermediate product which can be further processed into either lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, which are primarily used in lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and high-performance nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries. Focusing on the upper end of the midstream would allow Australia to remain technology-agnostic while companies compete for downstream market share in east Asia. This would ensure a larger market for Australian products and reduce price volatility. Processing spodumene into lithium sulphate would achieve the midstream goal of a significant value-add compared to a concentrate production while hedging risk, Taylor added. Antimony metal and antimony trisulphide are also promising options, because Australia already produces antimony concentrate and sees healthy demand from both conventional and emerging use cases, he said. Meanwhile, mixed rare earth oxides and mixed rare earth carbonates might be the "sweet spot" for Australia's rare earths industry, leaving downstream manufacturing to international partners, Taylor said. Australia should also aim to recover more value from strategic by-products such as tantalum from lithium processing and gallium from alumina refining, moving sideways in existing markets that have not been fully captured rather than into the more competitive downstream sector, Taylor said. By Daniel Gage-Brown Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices 2025-26 USD/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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