Germany is likely to miss its emissions reduction target this year because it made insufficient progress in electrification in January-June, think-tank Agora Energiewende said on Friday.
Germany's emissions fell by only 7mn t CO2 equivalent (CO2e) to 327mn t CO2e in the first half of 2026, compared with the first half of last year, according to initial calculations by Agora Energiewende, based on provisional data.
Germany's climate action law sets the emissions cap for 2026 at 625mn t CO2e. But assuming the rate of reduction remains unchanged, Agora projects that emissions will only fall to 635mn t CO2e.
The main driver behind the decline was the renewed fossil fuel price crisis, triggered by the blockade of the strait of Hormuz since March, which reduced fossil fuel consumption, Agora said.
Germany's manufacturing output fell in January-June, truck traffic on German roads declined slightly and sales of light heating oil fell.
A small share of the emissions reduction can be attributed to an increase in electrification, Agora said, as sales of heat pumps and electric cars set new growth records in the first half of the year. The increasing share of heat pumps explains why natural gas consumption in buildings remained roughly constant, despite a cold start to the year and higher heating requirements.
Germany's federal environment ministry rejected Agora's warnings, arguing that it is still "far too early" to carry out a "reliable, robust" assessment of emissions for the year. Federal environment agency UBA has until 15 March, 2027 to publish the country's key emissions data for 2026, the ministry said.
Agora Energiewende's director for Germany, Julia Blaesius, commended climate action measures taken in Spain and France, with Spain "massively pushing ahead" the expansion of renewable energy and France presenting a plan for accelerated electrification. "Germany has some catching up to do," Blaesius said.
The environment ministry underlined the climate action programme passed in March on Friday, which added some new measures towards meeting the climate target, such as additional tenders of 12GW of onshore wind and new subsidy programmes for electric mobility.
The number of new electric car registrations rose significantly in July, compared with the first half of the year, the ministry said, with almost one in three newly registered cars being electric.
Germany last year exceeded its annual emissions allocation under the EU's effort-sharing regulation (ESR) by around 33.6mn t CO2e, the government said in a briefing to parliament published this week. The ESR covers emissions outside the EU emissions trading system and the land use and forestry sector.
Germany's ESR sectors emitted around 382.8mn t CO2e in 2025, against an emissions allowance of around 349.2mn t CO2e. Emissions exceeded the allowance by only 5.2mn t CO2e in 2024. Germany's ESR emissions were below its allocated allowance in 2021-23,.
