Ukraine’s 2026-27 corn output to rise on larger areas

Spanish Market: Agriculture
04/09/26

Argus forecasts Ukraine's 2026-27 corn production at 32.1mn t, up by 4pc on the year, following the Argus virtual corn crop tour.

The increase is expected, despite slightly lower yield potential, because larger harvested areas offset the decline. Argus estimates Ukraine's average corn yield at 6.9 t/hectare (ha), slightly below both last year's level and the five-year average.

Corn yield potential is expected to decline in most surveyed regions, compared with last year, although Poltava and [Cherkasy](https://direct.argusmedia.com/article/2870906) have recovered from the dry and unusually warm conditions seen in the previous season.

Favourable weather supported crop establishment and early development, but drier conditions from July onwards reduced soil moisture across much of the country, weighing on yield prospects.

Hot and dry weather accelerated crop development, with NDVI readings and field observations indicating corn crops across central and western Ukraine are on track to start harvesting earlier than last year.

Argus estimates Ukraine's corn harvested area for 2026-27 at 4.65mn ha, up by 5.7pc from last year. Farmers expanded corn plantings at the expense of less profitable crops, encouraged by better economic returns and favourable planting conditions.

But final yields and harvested area will depend on harvest conditions and timing. Some market participants warn that limited storage availability could force farmers to leave corn in fields longer than usual while waiting for export flows to resume, creating uncertainty around the pace of harvest and final production results.

Ukraine corn production mn t

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01/09/26

Talks can resume when US ‘starts being serious’: Carney

Calgary, 1 September (Argus) — Canada is prepared to resume trade talks with the US but is not inclined to do so until its southern neighbor's strategy becomes more constructive, prime minister Mark Carney said today. "When the Americans stop doing memes, stop throwing shade, stop trying to be tough, and start being serious about having those discussions, we can have those discussions," said Carney in Ottawa on Tuesday. The US on 22 August imposed new tariffs on $28bn of Canadian imports using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 after trade talks between the two countries broke down the evening before. Canada has vowed to retaliate "dollar for dollar" starting on 8 September. US president Donald Trump on 24 August called Canada "among the worst Nations in the World to deal with" before renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America days later. Carney said negotiations were derailed by unreasonable US demands, suggesting they would have put Canada's sovereignty at risk. Carney's comments came the day after his party and trade strategy got a boost from voters who elected three Liberal candidates in special elections to regain the party's majority position. The governing Liberals now hold 173 of the 343 seats in the House of Commons, allowing the passage of legislation without support from any of the other parties. The Conservatives remain the official opposition with 138 seats. The special elections were held to replace members of parliament who had resigned from their posts between general elections, which had temporarily reduced the Liberals' to slightly below majority status. Byelections were held in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia, the three provinces hit the hardest by punitive US tariffs on Canadian goods. The US' latest trade action has nearly tripled the estimated effective tariff rate on imports from British Columbia to about 11pc, while roughly doubling the rate on imports from Quebec and Ontario to about 11pc and 8pc, respectively, according to ATB Financial. About 52pc of Canadians said they are "personally willing to undergo some significant economic pain" to help the rest of Canada amid the trade battle, according to a recent Ipsos poll. About 73pc of those polled support imposing an export tariff on crude oil, natural gas and electricity, while 69pc support limiting energy exports to the US altogether. Because of tariff exemptions by Trump on energy imports, Alberta and Saskatchewan have been relatively unscathed and have both advocated diplomacy over retaliation. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US soybean conditions slip, corn flat

31/08/26

US soybean conditions slip, corn flat

Houston, 31 August (Argus) — The national US rate of good-to-excellent soybeans fell by 2 percentage points to 58pc during the latest week, while national corn conditions were unchanged, according to US Department of Agriculture data. National soybean conditions now lag year-prior levels by 7 points and the five-year average by 1 point as of the week ended 30 August. Changes among major-growing states were mixed, with conditions in Minnesota declining by 8 points to 57pc good to excellent, but climbing by 1 to 3 points in each of North Dakota, Nebraska, Michigan, Missouri, and Indiana. The good-to-excellent rates in Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio were all flat from the week prior. Poor soybean conditions relative to the five-year average have mostly been concentrated east of the Mississippi River and in the Dakotas. Conditions in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri are all at or above the five-year average, headlined by Iowa's 77pc good-to-excellent rating, 11 points over its five-year average. Corn conditions, meanwhile, were flat at 57pc good to excellent following a 3-point decline during the week ended 23 August. As with soybeans, changes in corn conditions were mixed in major-growing states, falling by 1-3 points in Iowa, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, while climbing by 2-5 points in Nebraska, Missouri, and Michigan. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio were all unchanged week-over-week. Developmentally, the US soybean crop is 95pc setting pods and 13pc dropping leaves, 2 and 4 points over their respective five-year averages. Mature soybeans are not yet being tracked nationally, with only Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi reporting so far. Corn reached 92pc dough and 62pc dented during the latest week, 3 and 6 points ahead of their five-year averages, respectively. However, the rate of mature corn has yet to accelerate ahead of the usual pace at just 13pc, down 2 points from last year and in line with the five-year average. Wheat harvests continue The US spring wheat harvest advanced by 15 points during the week ended 30 August to 77pc complete. Spring wheat harvesting is now up 5 points from year-prior levels and 9 points ahead of the five-year average. Only Montana is lagging typical levels at just 66pc complete, down 7 points from last year and 11 points from its five-year average. Minnesota is also 1 point behind 2025 but still 14 points over its five-year average. As with corn, spring wheat conditions were unchanged week-over-week at 51pc good to excellent, a 2-point gain from last year. On the winter wheat side, two more states — Idaho and Washington — finished harvesting, leaving only Montana, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming incomplete. All of those states except Utah — at 41pc complete — are between 95pc and 97pc finished with their harvests. By Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

El Nino to cut Brazil Mato Grosso 2026-27 corn crop

31/08/26

El Nino to cut Brazil Mato Grosso 2026-27 corn crop

St Louis, 31 August (Argus) — The 2026-27 corn crop in Brazil's central-western Mato Grosso state will be smaller than the current cycle's — despite slightly more planted area — as the El Nino climate phenomenon creates great risks for yields next year. Mato Grosso's institute of agricultural economics (Imea) expect the 2026-27 second crop corn harvest to reach 53.7mn metric tonnes (t), down by 7.5pc from the 2025-26 season. The projected drop in production for next year was provided along with a 1.1pc increase to the production estimate for the current 2025-26 crop, which is now set at record 58mn t. The increase to the 2025-26 crop production estimate resulted from a 1.1pc increase to yields, which are now estimated at a record 130.11 60kg bags/hectare (ha). But the yield outlook for 2026-27 is lower. Weather conditions could limit corn productivity in the 2026-27 season. El Nino is expected to impact the development of the soybean crop this year, resulting in delays to corn planting and potentially cuts to planted area. Additionally, the increased risk of dryer weather later in the growing season creates additional risk for crop development and yields next year. As a result, Imea placed its corn yield estimate for 2026-27 at 119.64 bags/ha, an 8.1pc decrease from the current harvest. The institute expects the planted area to grow next season — up by 0.6pc to 7.48mn ha (74,800km²) — following higher domestic demand for Matto Grosso's corn. But this increased area outlook was also based on an uncertain weather outlook and could be impacted by planting delays, Imea said. Cotton The 2025-26 cotton crop's planted area estimate was reduced by less than 1pc from the previous report, but this season's production outlook was increased due to higher yields. Cotton area is now estimated at 1.37mn ha, down by only 0.07pc from Imea's August estimate. With that cut, the institute also increased this season's yield estimate by 2.6pc to 323.37 bags/ha. As of the report, Mato Grosso's cotton harvest had progressed past the halfway point, confirming the expectation of exceptional yields this year and reducing the risk that yields will be revised significantly lower, Imea said. With the revised area and yield estimates, the cotton harvest is now estimated at 6.67mn t, a 2.5pc increase from the previous estimate, but still down by 8.9pc from the previous year's harvest. Soybeans Imea maintained its 2026-27 production estimate of 48.9mn t, but weather will be a significant risk factor as planting approaches. Planting is expected to begin during September in areas with adequate soil moisture. With the risk of El Nino impacting growing conditions later this season, and adequate soil moister during planting noted as major concern for producers this season, the timing and availability of rain in the coming weeks will be critical for dictating the timing and pace of planting this season, Imea said. By Ryan Koory Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argentina corn exports continue to rise

28/08/26

Argentina corn exports continue to rise

St Louis, 28 August (Argus) — Argentinian exporters registered 2.81mn metric toArgentina corn exports continue to risennes (t) of corn sales to foreign buyers during the week ending 28 August, the largest volume reported in a single week since the export tax break in June last year, according to the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. Half of the volume — 1.46mn t —registered during the week was for loading by the end of October, bringing total volume for the month to 3.26mn t. Another 772,000t was split nearly evenly across September and November loading. And the remainder was registered for export across February through July 2027. With this week's activity, export sales registered for loading by the end of September reached 5.23mn t, eclipsing the 579,000t for September 2025. Soybean meal export registrations were elevated as well, reaching 844,000t during the week. Like corn, October loading accounted for half of the volume, with 450,000t registered for the month. The remaining volume was split across September, November and December loading. Soybean meal exports for September loading reached 2.52mn t at the end of the week, more than doubling last year's volume. And October volumes climbed to 1.56mn t, 10pc more than the volume registered for October last year. Soybean and soybean oil export registrations were also elevated compared to last year, with 275,000t of soybeans registered — mostly for November loading— and 246,000t of soybean oil primarily for September loading. Wheat export registrations reached their highest level since February, with 198,000t reported for loading during September, and another 300,000t for loading in December, which will likely be filled by this year's pending harvest. Barley export registrations were higher as well, up by 30pc from the same week last year to 89,300t, all of which was for loading by the end of September. By Ryan Koory Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Biodiesel could boost Brazil as bunker supplier

27/08/26

Biodiesel could boost Brazil as bunker supplier

Sao Paulo, 27 August (Argus) — Brazil is well-positioned to become one of the leading suppliers of biodiesel to the global maritime sector, supported by competitive costs, ample availability of raw materials and idle production capacity. Brazilian biofuel still faces barriers to meeting part of the international demand driven by European regulations, but progress in discussions at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) concerning the decarbonization of maritime transport could expand the market for biodiesel made from soybean oil and other feedstocks produced in Brazil. Prices for Brazilian biodiesel — traded both on the spot market and via contracts for delivery at the Port of Paranaguá in the southern state of Paraná — averaged $1,065/m³ and $1,016/m³, respectively, over the last 12 months, based on Argus indicators. European biodiesel originating in the Netherlands, adjusted to the same basis of comparison, recorded an average price of $1,146/m³. Brazil's current biodiesel production capacity is 15.8mn m³/y (272,700 b/d), assuming continuous plant operations. Actual production, however, is approximately 10mn m³/y, indicating idle capacity of around 37pc, according to data from hydrocarbons regulator ANP. State-controlled Petrobras and Raizen have both received ANP approvals to market their own blend of very low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) containing a minimum of 24pc biodiesel (B24). Currently, only Petrobras markets B24 at Brazilian ports. Brazilian biodiesel's ability to gain a foothold in the international bunker market depends on demand, which is constrained by regulatory factors. The main drivers of alternative fuel consumption in the bunker market are European regulations, which limit the eligibility of fuels derived from food or forage crops. The EU's RED III directive — which aims to increase renewable energy consumption in the transportation sector to 29pc of total consumption by 2030 — classifies soybeans as a feedstock with a high risk of indirect land-use change. The classification is based on higher emissions in the "well-to-wheel" cycle, which takes into consideration the total CO2 released into the atmosphere from production through the fuel combustion phase. For this reason, RED III prioritizes biodiesel made from waste feedstocks and advanced routes, such as product made from used cooking oil (UCO), agricultural waste, or industrial waste. The EU's specific regulation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the maritime sector, FuelEU Maritime, uses the sustainability criteria defined by RED III and also favors advanced fuels and feedstocks with a lower climate impact. In December, the IMO could approve a regulatory package that supports the decarbonization of maritime transport in international waters by 2050. The potential approval of the so-called Net-Zero Framework could open a new avenue for Brazilian biodiesel in the maritime market. The proposal aims to establish a standard for fuel emissions intensity and an economic mechanism linked to ship emissions, with progressive reduction targets through 2050. Depending on the criteria adopted for life-cycle assessment, traceability and indirect emissions, soybean oil biodiesel could come to be counted as a lower-carbon alternative. The change could put Brazil in a more competitive position as a supplier of lower-emission marine fuels. It could also help unlock demand for biodiesel from various feedstocks starting in 2028 — the potential effective date of the new IMO requirements — which could reshape consumption decisions in the maritime sector. In parallel with international regulatory advances, Brazil is moving toward regulating biobunker in national waters. In late July, the ANP launched a public consultation to revise the specifications for marine fuels, aligning Brazilian rules with the IMO's most recent decarbonization targets. The proposal recognizes biodiesel, hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and synthetic fuels as drop-in alternatives, which can be used without modifications to engines or refueling infrastructure. Tests with drop-in fuels have already been conducted with special authorization from the ANP since 2025. Efen — a joint venture between Prumo Logistica and BP — conducted a debunkering operation using HVO at the port of Acu, in the southeastern state of Rio de Janeiro. Local renewable energy firm Be8 tested BeVant, the biofuel produced by the company, in Sao Francisco do Sul, in the southern state of Santa Catarina, and in water in Rio Grande do Sul, also in Brazil's southern region. This year, Denmark's Bunker One also conducted tests with ethanol at Santos port, in the southeastern state of Sao Paulo. By Natalia Dalle Cort and Gabriel Tassi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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