Pa. study finds PJM short on generation

Spanish Market: Coal, Electricity, Natural gas
16/09/26

Grid operator PJM Interconnection is projected to miss its reliability planning standard through 2030 even with the new power generation it expects to add, because data-center driven electricity demand is growing faster than supply, according to a Pennsylvania study.

The study's base-case outlook, which uses PJM's 2026 load forecast and assumes resource supply gradually improves through 2040, found the grid operator fails to meet its reliability standard from 2027-30 in the absence of new policies.

The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) said it commissioned the study to understand how rapid load growth, generator retirements and delays in new resource development could affect reliability across Pennsylvania and the broader PJM region, which covers 13 states the District of Columbia, making it the biggest grid operator in the US.

"Across all scenarios, new in-state generation additions do not keep pace with the growth of in-state load," the report said. The system remains "tightly constrained" even as new resources are added, with the model selecting most generation technologies up to their assumed build limits, the report said.

Under the study's base-case scenario, PJM's gas combined-cycle fleet increases to 71.8GW in 2030 from 61.4GW in 2025, while solar capacity rises to 56.1GW from 14.7GW. Onshore wind capacity grows to 21GW from 11GW and battery storage expands to 7.9GW from 0.5GW.

Pennsylvania policymakers are increasingly focused on how data center growth effects electricity prices and reliability. Governor Josh Shapiro (D) has lobbied his counterparts to take a more active role in shaping PJM's policies as it grapples with unprecedented load-growth projections. Shapiro recently imposed new requirements on data center development to ensure new large-load customers pay for the infrastructure needed to serve them and do not shift costs to existing ratepayers.

The report projects Pennsylvania will remain PJM's largest generation state, but its share of regional generating capacity shrinks over time as more resources are added in states such as Virginia and Ohio. Pennsylvania's share was 23pc in 2025 and is projected to fall to 20-21pc by 2030 and 14-17pc by 2040.

Through 2030, most new generation added in Pennsylvania consists of solar and battery storage. By 2040, the state's gas combined-cycle fleet rises to 32GW from 20GW in 2025, while coal capacity falls to about 1GW from 4.6GW. Across all modeled scenarios, the study projects 14-29GW of coal retirements across PJM by 2040 as plants reach the end of their useful lives and face competition from more economic resources.

The study did not evaluate specific solutions to the projected reliability shortfall, including whether extending the lives of existing coal plants or adding capacity beyond the modeled resource mix would improve reliability outcomes. Thermal generators were assumed to retire on or before their scheduled retirement dates, with additional retirements based on modeled economics, PUC officials said in response to questions from Argus.

By Jasmina Kelemen

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16/09/26

Dutch fossil exit roadmap highlights difficulties

London, 16 September (Argus) — The Netherlands has published a roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, outlining the difficulties the country will face in the transition and setting no date for an ultimate halt to fossil fuel use. The plan aims at the "minimisation" of fossil fuel use by 2050, with its "ultimate" phase-out date left undefined. It identifies challenges in moving away from each of natural gas, oil and coal. The country committed to producing a roadmap to end fossil fuel use at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil last year, and recommitted to it at the Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels conference in Santa Marta in May. The latter conference was organised outside of formal UN channels and attended only by countries keen to advance on cutting fossil fuel use. The Netherlands co-hosted the meeting with Colombia. But the Latin American country's new administration has since said it plans to pursue a different approach to transitioning to cleaner energy, reopening the door to expanding oil and natural gas. The Dutch government said that the transition away from gas is made more difficult by the fuel's role in the Netherlands' energy system. "As long as full-fledged, sustainable alternatives are insufficiently available, natural gas remains essential for our society," the roadmap reads. Gas plays a large role in balancing the Netherlands' renewable-heavy power system, filling in during periods of low intermittent renewable output. Replacement of gas in domestic heating is underway, with increased electrification and insulation reducing consumption in recent years. But "uncertainties are considerably greater" on the use of gas in industry, the government said. Allocating fixed costs of the gas network to a shrinking number of users during the transition represents another difficulty. Some changes have been made which frontload costs to the coming years, when they can be spread across more users. Gas consumption would fall to around 110TWh by 2040, from around 250TWh in 2025, under the government's plan. But alternative government projections suggest consumption could fall to 140-190TWh. The government plans to prioritise domestic production of gas, citing its lower climate impact compared to imported LNG, and lower dependence on other countries. The country produces around 20 mn m³/d of natural gas, or the equivalent of 100TWh/yr. On oil, the government considers the transition to be relatively sure in mobility. But it said that phasing out of fossil fuel use in the chemical sector is more uncertain as demand for sustainable raw materials remains slow as a result of a lack of policy support. Coal use in the Netherlands is limited to the power and steel sectors. In the former, a ban will come into force in 2030, although this will negatively affect security of supply, according to the roadmap. In the steel sector the replacement of the country's two coal-consuming blast furnaces could take place in the 2030s, although this will depend on "technological and market developments," the government said. Environmental non-governmental organisation (NGO) welcomed the publication of the roadmap, but criticised the absence of phase out dates for oil and gas and ongoing gas production. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s Queensland moves to curb mining objections

16/09/26

Australia’s Queensland moves to curb mining objections

Sydney, 16 September (Argus) — Australia's Queensland state government has introduced a bill to restrict objections to mining lease approvals, aiming to accelerate project approvals and limit legal challenges to mine expansions from climate activists. The centre-right Liberal National party (LNP) government introduced the Mineral Resources Objections Reform and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2026 to parliament on 16 September. The proposed bill would prevent individuals outside of directly affected communities from objecting to mining lease approvals. The change would allow objections from individuals situated within 125km of a mining lease boundary, enabling local communities to oppose mining approvals while limiting "environmental lawfare driven by activists," Queensland minister for natural resources and mines Dale Last said today. The bill would also replace the automatic referrals to Queensland's land court with a process giving government ministers discretion to refer objections they consider warranted for a hearing or independent review. The change could be especially important for coal mine expansions, which are often subject to strong community scrutiny on climate grounds. Conservation group the Queensland Conservation Council said the bill would severely limit the ability of Queenslanders to object to mining projects and allow ministers to "pick and choose" which community objections would get heard in court. The bill would widen the gap between mining approval processes in Queensland and New South Wales (NSW) state. NSW has stopped issuing greenfield permits for thermal coal mines, while Queensland has said coal will remain an integral part of its energy system until at least the 2040s. Coal mining approvals in NSW have been marked by significant community opposition. The NSW court of appeal blocked Mach Energy's proposed extension of its 10mn t/yr Mount Pleasant thermal coal mine in July 2025 following opposition from an environmental group. Mach Energy sought to overturn this decision with an appeal in May, and the case remains before the High Court of Australia. The Hunter Valley Operations (HVO) coal mining complex, a joint venture between Chinese-Australian producer Yancoal and Switzerland-headquartered Glencore, is awaiting approval for an extension from NSW's independent planning commission (IPC). The proposed extension has been met with opposition from the NSW Net Zero Commission and environmental activists and received over 4,200 public objections, according to the IPC's website. Public scrutiny prompted the IPC to delay its approval decision, which was due on 4 September, by an additional month. By Emma Partis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Venezuela bet will take time to pay off: Armstrong

15/09/26

Venezuela bet will take time to pay off: Armstrong

Houston, 15 September (Argus) — Veteran oil wildcatter Bill Armstrong, who has secured a deal to explore 5mn acres off the coast of Venezuela, said it will take years to reach first production if successful. Denver-based Armstrong Oil & Gas, the company he founded, is ready to carry out seismic testing in the region after reaching an agreement with the interim Venezuela government, he said. "It won't be fast," Armstrong said today at the Super DUG 2026 conference in Houston, Texas. "The data quality is old — vintage seismic — and it's almost all 2D data, so you have to shoot it all with 3D, and that is not fast nor is it cheap." He said it could take five years to deliver the first volumes, though that was a "wild guess" and it hinges on the company making a commercial discovery in the first place. Armstrong was among the almost two dozen oil executives who attended a White House meeting in January as President Donald Trump pushed for the industry to invest as much as $100bn to help kickstart Venezuela's long-neglected energy sector. Deals announced so far have largely centered on smaller US independents, while bigger firms such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which had their assets seized under previous Venezuelan governments, have adopted a more cautious approach. Armstrong, who helped revive interest in Alaska's North Slope after the Pikka discovery in 2013, said he never thought he would get an opportunity to tap Venezuela's oil riches. "Venezuela is like a Mecca for oil and gas," he said. "It's like going into Saudi Arabia or something, you know, where it's just like so prolific." That said, there were still risks involved and he cautioned that wildcatting was not for the faint-hearted. "The politics are good right now," Armstrong said. "You got to make sure the Venezuelans want you there. Right now, they do." By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Commonwealth LNG developer to nearly double capacity

15/09/26

Commonwealth LNG developer to nearly double capacity

Houston, 15 September (Argus) — US natural gas and LNG producer Caturus plans to expand the Commonwealth LNG export terminal in Louisiana with 7.8mn t/yr (1bn ft³/d) of new capacity, the developer announced today. The five-train expansion would nearly double production at the terminal, where private equity fund Kimmeridge-backed Caturus reached a final investment decision on the initial 9.5mn t/yr project in May. The developer announced the expansion alongside officials from the administration of president Donald Trump on Tuesday at the G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial Meeting in Houston, Texas. The expansion project will use the same technology and construction approach, drawing on established vendor and supplier relationships, Caturus chief corporate affairs officer Brian Cain said at the event. Caturus still aims to begin commercial operations on the first phase in 2030, with the second phase following "in the early 2030s" to raise annual production capacity to 17.3mn t/yr, the company said in a statement. The company has not yet initiated the expansion's regulatory proceedings with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) or the Department of Energy (DOE), records show. FERC oversees permission to build and operate LNG export terminals, and DOE regulates project export volumes to countries that do and do not have free trade agreements with the US — known as FTA and non-FTA countries, respectively. The initial phase of Commonwealth LNG stood out as one of the projects most hampered by former President Joe Biden's year-long moratorium on issuing non-FTA export licenses, a policy the Trump administration quickly rescinded by granting a license to Commonwealth LNG in February 2025. US interior secretary Doug Burgum and energy secretary Chris Wright were on hand for the expansion announcement as the US administration focused on business partnerships and deals during the three-day ministerial meetings. The US government is now "giving the permission and getting out of the way" for such projects, Wright said. By Tray Swanson and Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Netherlands to miss 2030 power emissions goal: PBL

15/09/26

Netherlands to miss 2030 power emissions goal: PBL

London, 15 September (Argus) — The Netherlands is likely to miss its 2030 sectoral emissions target for the power sector, as growing demand outpaces growth in renewable capacity and increases the use of gas-fired capacity, according to government research body the environmental assessment agency (PBL). The Netherlands only has a 5pc chance of reaching its 13mn t CO2e emissions target in 2030, down from an estimated 16.7mn t this year. PBL expects 4 TWh/yr of demand growth out to 2040, mostly coming from transport and data centres. This demand growth will push the country to being a net importer, from a net exporter at present. Policy changes now will make no difference to 2030, because lead times for building new renewable sites are too long, the report said. But PBL still expects offshore wind to become the largest contributor of renewable energy by 2030, overtaking solar. There is uncertainty over whether Indian firm Tata Steel's two blast furnaces in the country will shut down by 2030. Residual gases from the furnaces are burnt at the Velten power plant, contributing base-load supply and a large share of emissions, the agency said. And the highly interconnected nature of the power grid with other countries is another source of uncertainty, because emissions in the Netherlands will depend on developments elsewhere. Compared with its last report from 2025, PBL assumes 1GW less of offshore wind in 2030, and slightly lower load factors for the technology. Gas-fired power will remain the main instrument out to 2040 for dealing with the variability of wind and solar, PBL expects, although the development of battery energy storage systems may allow these to play a bigger role. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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