Etanol deve impulsionar vendas do Ciclo Otto no 5º bi

Spanish Market: Biofuels, Oil products
22/09/26

O crescimento nas vendas de etanol hidratado deve compensar a queda no consumo de gasolina C e elevar os volumes negociados do Ciclo Otto no quinto bimestre, segundo levantamento conduzido pela Argus com as principais distribuidoras do Brasil.

A mediana das projeções do setor aponta para um consumo conjunto de 5,9 milhões de m³ de gasolina C – combustível misturado com 32pc de etanol anidro – e etanol hidratado em setembro e aproximadamente 6,1 milhões de m³ em outubro.

Se confirmados, os volumes representarão altas de 3,4pc e 2,5pc em comparação com as vendas de Ciclo Otto em setembro e outubro de 2025, respectivamente, de acordo com dados da Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP).

Os níveis de paridade mais competitivos do etanol hidratado em relação à gasolina C devem impulsionar o consumo no período.

A paridade de preços entre os dois combustíveis alcançou 61,7pc, em média, nas três primeiras semanas de setembro, de acordo com dados da ANP. No mesmo período de 2025, a paridade registrou média de 68,5pc.

O movimento reflete um cenário de preços mais baixos para o etanol hidratado, em razão de expectativas de produção recorde do biocombustível na safra 2026-27, e um cenário de aumento para os preços da gasolina, diante do conflito entre EUA-Irã no Oriente Médio.

As medianas das projeções do setor para o consumo de etanol hidratado apontam para aproximadamente 2,1 milhões de m³ tanto para setembro quanto para outubro. Os volumes representam respectivas altas de quase 17pc e 14pc em relação aos mesmos meses de 2025, segundo dados da ANP.

Para gasolina, é esperado um consumo de 3,8 milhões de m³ em setembro e aproximadamente 4 milhões de m³ em outubro. Os volumes ficariam 2,9pc e 2,6pc abaixo, respectivamente, das vendas do combustível fóssil registradas nos mesmos meses de 2025, de acordo com a ANP.

A recente valorização nos preços do açúcar e preocupações com os efeitos do El Niño na produção de cana-de-açúcar podem sustentar uma alta nas cotações do etanol nas próximas semanas. Porém, o movimento não deve ser suficiente para mudar o perfil da paridade de preços entre os dois combustíveis rodoviários, segundo participantes de mercado.

Diesel

Distribuidoras esperam queda no consumo de diesel B – combustível misturado com 15pc de biodiesel – nos próximos dois meses. Participantes de mercado mencionam uma possível desaceleração da economia no período e expectativas de alta para o preço do combustível como fatores que contribuem para volumes menores.

A mediana das projeções aponta para uma demanda de 6,1 milhões de m³ de diesel em setembro e quase 6,4 milhões de m³ em outubro. Se confirmados, os volumes representarão quedas de 1,8pc e 0,9pc, respectivamente, ante os mesmos meses de 2025, de acordo com a ANP.

Distribuidoras relatam uma aceleração no consumo de diesel nas primeiras semanas de setembro, porém acreditam que uma alta nos preços do combustível pode frear a demanda a partir de outubro.

Os preços de revenda do diesel B aumentaram aproximadamente 4pc na média nacional na semana iniciada em 13 de setembro, ante a última semana de agosto, segundo dados da ANP. Os preços atuais também representam alta de 18pc em relação à mesma semana de 2025.

O setor espera que os preços continuem subindo nas próximas semanas, devido à intensificação do conflito no Oriente Médio e ao aumento das preocupações com uma disrupção global na oferta do combustível.

A menor disponibilidade de produto importado no país neste mês, combinado ao período sazonal de maior demanda doméstica entre setembro-outubro, reforçam as perspectivas de alta para os preços do combustível.

Por Maria Albuquerque

Projeções para consumo de combustíveis rodoviários						.000 m³
	Setembro			Outubro

Combustível	Projeção (2026)	ANP (2025)	%	Projeção (2026)	ANP (2025)	%
Diesel B	6136,0	6245,9	-1,8	6376,1	6432,0	-0,9
Gasolina C	3831,0	3946,7	-2,9	4039,0	4144,9	-2,6
Etanol hidratado	2054,5	1752,4	17,2	2096,5	1844,9	13,6
Ciclo Otto	5893,5	5699,1	3,4	6141,0	5989,9	2,5

Fonte: Argus, ANP

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28/09/26

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German oil demand drops before fuel tax cut

28/09/26

German oil demand drops before fuel tax cut

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Brazilian producers call for bunker biofuel mandate

25/09/26

Brazilian producers call for bunker biofuel mandate

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SAF needs nuanced crop feedstocks policy: Panel

25/09/26

SAF needs nuanced crop feedstocks policy: Panel

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US warns vessels over Houthi Red Sea threat

25/09/26

US warns vessels over Houthi Red Sea threat

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