Trump moderates calls for diesel export ban

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
30/09/26

President Donald Trump is tempering his endorsement of a diesel export ban because of concerns that it could push up gasoline prices, as his administration raises expectations of price relief from new diesel supplies in Europe.

Trump said on Wednesday that although he was still "thinking about" a diesel export ban, he believes the US is in a "good place" because of a recent drop in crude prices and a "tremendous" volume of oil coming out of the strait of Hormuz. Trump had called for a diesel export ban last week, but administration officials have since said that an outright ban on exports is unlikely.

"It's something that we think about and we talk about every day," Trump told reporters. "But it just seems that it would have a negative impact on gasoline. So that would go up a little bit, and diesel would come down a little bit, and we think we're in a very good place."

US energy secretary Chris Wright earlier this week urged EU countries to fully follow through on commitments to release tens of millions of barrels of crude and oil products. Those pledges were part of a global release of 400mn bl of strategic stocks that IEA members agreed to in March.

On Wednesday, Wright said he expects diesel prices will "move meaningfully down in the coming weeks and days", in part because of additional supplies of diesel coming out of Europe.

"You will hear announcements from our friends in Europe about new diesel supplies that'll come to the market that'll meaningfully push diesel prices down," Wright said.

European diesel prices slumped on Tuesday on news that EU leaders could discuss releasing more emergency stock releases when they meet next month. The EU must "evaluate the situation" regarding the release of emergency stocks, the EU's energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said on Tuesday. EU countries as of May 2025 were holding nearly 39mn t of gasoil and diesel as part of emergency stocks, according to the latest Eurostat data.

Nearly 50pc of oil industry officials the Dallas Federal Reserve surveyed in a report posted on Wednesday expect it will take more than a year for the spread between diesel and crude prices to return to 2025 levels, indicating an expectation of long-term refinery bottlenecks that push up diesel prices.

By Chris Knight

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30/09/26

Brasil avança em marco para bunker alternativo

Sao Paulo, 30 September (Argus) — O Ministério de Minas e Energia (MME) afirmou enviará ao Congresso um projeto de lei (PL) para criar uma política nacional de combustíveis sustentáveis de navegação, ainda em 2026. A informação foi anunciada por representantes do ministério durante o 2º Workshop do Programa Nacional de Combustível de Navegação, realizado na terça-feira, 29, em Brasília. Participantes do mercado, organizações e representantes de diferentes esferas de governo esperam que o PL priorize etanol e biodiesel e defendem que a futura política mantenha alinhamento com a legislação em discussão na Organização Marítima Internacional (IMO, na sigla em inglês). O pacote de medidas de emissão zero da IMO propõe zerar as emissões do transporte marítimo até 2050. A expectativa de que o pacote seja aprovado ainda este ano - após adiamento em 2025 - já que a regulamentação pode beneficiar produtores de etanol de milho nos Estados Unidos, disseram participantes à Argus. O presidente norte-americano, Donald Trump, se posicionou contra o plano de descarbonização durante a Assembleia Geral da Organização das Nações Unidas. No PL do Brasil, ainda precisam ser definidas a abrangência da regulamentação, as metas e base cálculo para a descarbonização e qual elo da cadeia será abrangido. O MME sugere caráter obrigatório para as metas. A governança proposta para a política nacional de combustíveis sustentáveis de navegação será dividida entre o Conselho Nacional de Política Energética (CNPE) e a Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP), ambos vinculados ao MME, além da Agência Nacional de Transportes Aquaviários (Antaq), integrante do Ministério de Portos e Aeroportos, e da Autoridade Marítima Brasileira. O ministério afirmou que ainda não definiu o formato de envio do PL, isto é, se a proposta será apresentada como uma alteração à Lei do Combustível do Futuro (Lei nº 14.993/2024) ou por meio de outro instrumento legislativo. Resolução da ANP Em paralelo, a ANP prepara uma resolução sobre regras para o mercado doméstico de combustível marítimo, que deverá ser publicada até dezembro deste ano. Em audiência realizada na semana passada, empresas dos setores de biocombustíveis e etanol defenderam a adoção de uma mistura obrigatória de 15pc de biodiesel (B15) no diesel marítimo. O setor também pediu à ANP a inclusão de regulamentação para o etanol sem a exigência de autorização especial, em linha com as regras já aplicáveis ao biodiesel, ao óleo vegetal hidrotratado (HVO, na sigla em inglês) e aos combustíveis produzidos pela tecnologia de conversão de gás em líquidos (GTL, na sigla em inglês). Por Natalia Coelho Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

US 3Q energy activity up despite volatility: Dallas Fed

30/09/26

US 3Q energy activity up despite volatility: Dallas Fed

New York, 30 September (Argus) — US oil and gas activity increased in the third quarter even as firms grappled with ongoing price volatility linked to the Mideast conflict, according to a closely-watched energy survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The business activity index — the survey's broadest measure of conditions — remained positive but slipped slightly to 38.8 in the third quarter from 46.1 in the second, suggesting the pace of expansion slowed slightly. The survey was conducted between 16–24 September. "Many executives continue to see effects from the disruption to global supply and expect them to persist for some time," said Michael Plante, an assistant vice president at the Dallas Fed. Executives from exploration and production (E&P) companies said wild swings in oil prices due to the US-Iran war were making it hard to plan ahead. "It is very challenging to select a planning price or budgeting price," said one executive in the anonymous survey. "Instability will be the word for energy markets with no end in sight until the oil delivery stabilizes in the Middle East," wrote another. Survey respondents expect crude oil exports from the Mideast Gulf will take some time to return to normal levels following disruptions caused by the war. The most popular answer among respondents was by the second quarter of next year, followed by 2028 or later. Meanwhile, executives expect it will take more than a year for the spread between fuel and crude oil prices to return to 2025 levels. Almost half anticipate it will take diesel prices more than four quarters, compared with 36pc who expect the same for gasoline. Outlooks diverged in the latest survey, with producers remaining more positive than services firms. At the same time, E&P firms reported a higher uncertainty reading than services companies. Meanwhile, cost pressures remained at elevated levels across the energy sector, and companies reported longer supplier delivery times. "It could be that what is somewhat limiting the increase in activity is just the unavailability or the constraints of trying to get more and more goods to the oil field, getting more and more labor, getting more and more rigs," said the bank's senior business economist, Kunal Patel. The survey was carried out with firms operating in the Federal Reserve's 11th District which includes Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico. Of the 125 companies that took part, 83 were E&P firms and 42 were oilfield services firms. US benchmark crude WTI was expected to end 2026 at $88/bl, according to the average of survey responses, which ranged from $70-$126/bl. Respondents forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices ending this year at $3.29/mmBtu on average. WTI spot prices averaged $98.70/bl during the survey period, and Henry Hub prices averaged $2.97/mmBtu. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EEX to auction 293mn EU ETS 2 permits in 2027

30/09/26

EEX to auction 293mn EU ETS 2 permits in 2027

London, 30 September (Argus) — Host platform European Energy Exchange (EEX) will auction 293mn allowances issued under the new EU emissions trading system covering road transport and housing fuels (ETS 2) in 2027, according to the scheme's calendar published on 30 September. Auctions are scheduled to take place every Monday, Tuesday and Thursday from 13:00 to 15:00 CE(S)T, running 18 January-20 December 2027. EEX will auction about 5.53mn allowances per sale during the first two weeks on 18-28 January. This will fall to around 3.69mn permits per sale in the following two weeks, over 1-11 February. From then onwards, each sale will offer about 1.84mn permits, except for the final auction on 20 December, which will offer 1.95mn allowances. No auctions will be held on 6 and 17 May because of public holidays in Europe. The European Commission plans to update the auction calendar regularly to reflect countries that have not yet transposed EU ETS 2 rules into national law. These countries cannot sell volumes in the early auctions until they have fully transposed the rules, but firms from these countries with obligations under the scheme can still participate in the sales. Only 13 member states have transposed the rules so far, the calendar shows. The EU ETS 2 is now expected to be fully operational in early 2028 , following a one-year delay as part of broader negotiations on revisions to the European Climate Law. Market participants have awaited the calendar as a signal to begin activity in the secondary market, amid concerns over further possible delays. The ETS 2 will impose a carbon price on road transport and housing fuels —including natural gas, LPG, petrol, diesel and coal — as well as on small industrial emitters not covered by the existing ETS. The system will apply upstream to fuel suppliers and aims to cut emissions from the covered sectors by 42pc by 2030 compared with 2005 levels. Companies must surrender their first batch of allowances by 31 May 2029 to cover their 2028 emissions. By Kiara Campagne Nieva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Electrification key to shift from fossils: Cop 30 head

30/09/26

Electrification key to shift from fossils: Cop 30 head

Edinburgh, 30 September (Argus) — Electrification will be a central element in the global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, which should be published on 3 November, UN Cop 30 climate summit president Andre Correa do Lago said during a ministerial meeting last week. Correa do Lago had pledged last year during the Cop 30 talks in Belem, Brazil to deliver a roadmap on the transition away from fossil fuel in a just and equitable manner after the summit ended without an agreement on the topic . "Electrification is absolutely central in the roadmap and we are happy to see that it is going to be widely discussed," he said. He was referring to the Cop 31 Turkish presidency's push for a global goal for electricity to reach 35pc of global final energy consumption by 2035 , up from around 20pc at present. The roadmap commitment is part of the implementation of the decision taken at Cop 28 in 2023, Correa do Lago told the electrification ministerial. The outcome from Cop 28, in Dubai, included a landmark consensus. Countries agreed to transition away "from fossil fuels in energy systems", as well as treble renewable energy and double energy efficiency rates by 2030, and to accelerate efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power". The Cop 30 presidency called for proposals from countries and civil society organisations on the roadmap at the end of February. The roadmap should conclude with recommendations on the shift away from fossil fuels, after setting out some potential risks and looking at supply and demand. The Brazilian government is also working on its own roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva last week told the UN general assembly that the country "will move forward with a roadmap for decarbonisation of the Brazilian economy". Lula, who is running for another term in the presidential elections taking place next month, has pledged to expand investments in upstream oil and gas , refining and LNG logistics, while maintaining natural gas and biomethane as key transition fuels to support industrial development and power system reliability. Energy research firm Epe expects Brazil to produce 4.9mn b/d of crude by 2030, up from current production estimated at nearly 4.5mn b/d, according to data from hydrocarbons regulator ANP. The Brazilian government has previously said that developed countries should take the lead when it comes to "the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels". By Caroline Varin and Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hormuz Tuesday traffic steady at 17: Windward

30/09/26

Hormuz Tuesday traffic steady at 17: Windward

Houston, 30 September (Argus) — Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz on Tuesday was unchanged from the previous day, with 17 vessels transiting the strait despite heightened tensions, according to maritime security firm Windward. Of the 17 vessels six were inbound and eleven outbound. The inbound traffic was evenly split between Iran's preferred northern corridor and the southern, US-assisted route. Of the outbound vessels, five used the northern corridor, five used the southern route, and one transited the high-risk central route. Inbound vessel classes consisted of two tankers, two cargo ships, and two bulk carriers. The outbound vessel classes were six tankers and five cargo ships. Attacks on vessels transiting the strait continue, with three incidents reported on 30 September on tankers, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). A day earlier UKMTO reported that a Kuwaiti VLCC was struck by an unidentified projectile. The four attacks this week account for nearly 10pc of the 42 cumulative strikes recorded since early July. Vessel transits remain consistent at 13pc of the pre-war average of 135 daily transits. By Anjali Shenoy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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