HVO-Absatz nimmt durch Preisvorteil stark zu

Spanish Market: Biofuels, Oil products
08/10/26

Die Handelsaktivität für HVO100 in Deutschland dürfte sich im laufenden Jahr nach Einschätzung mehrerer Marktteilnehmer gegenüber dem Vorjahr etwa verdoppeln. Ausschlaggebend hierfür ist, dass HVO zur TKW-Verladung bundesweit derzeit mit einem Abschlag zu B7-Diesel gehandelt wird, sodass Endverbraucher vermehrt auf das günstigere Produkt umsteigen.

Verbraucher haben in diesem Jahr Händlern zufolge deutlich mehr HVO100 angefragt als im Vorjahr. Insbesondere Kunden aus der Landwirtschaft und gewerbliche Flottenbetreiber hätten ihre Beschaffungsmengen ausgeweitet.

So berichtet ein Händler aus dem Süden Deutschlands, dass die verkauften HVO-Mengen in den ersten neun Monaten des Jahres 2026 bereits klar über dem Gesamtjahresniveau von 2025 liegen. Auch andere Marktteilnehmer berichten von einem deutlich lebhafteren Handel und sprechen von einer erwarteten Verdopplung der Marktaktivität im Jahr 2026 gegenüber dem Vorjahr.

Grund für diesen Anstieg ist zum einen der Wegfall der Doppelenrechenbarkeit fortschrittlicher Biokraftstoffe. Zuvor konnten fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe aus Abfall- und Reststoffen doppelt auf die Treibhausgasminderungsquote angerechnet werden. Darüber hinaus ist auch die zunehmende Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von HVO gegenüber fossilem Diesel ausschlaggebend: So stiegen die deutschen B7-Inlandsdurchschnittspreise im Zuge des Iran-Krieges im Vergleich zum 27. Februar um bis zu rund 48 % an. HVO ist von dieser Entwicklung weniger stark betroffen, da der Kraftstoff nicht auf fossilen Rohstoffen basiert und anderen Preisbildungsmechanismen folgt.

Zum anderen wird diese Entwicklung durch historisch hohe Erlöse aus dem Handel mit Treibhausgasminderungen (THG-Minderungen) gefördert, welche durch das Inverkehrbringen von HVO generiert werden. Diese THG-Erlöse können genutzt werden, um die Großhandelspreise von HVO zu senken und das Produkt wettbewerbsfähig zu machen. So erreichten die aus dem Inverkehrbringen von fortschrittlichem HVO generierten THG-Erlöse in den vergangenen Wochen Rekordwerte und verharren weiterhin auf einem hohen Niveau (siehe Grafik).

Begründet ist der höhere THG-Erlös im anhaltenden Niedrigwasser auf dem Rhein: Ein erheblicher Anteil der deutschen Biokraftstoffversorgung gelangt über das Handelszentrum Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerpen nach Deutschland gelangt, weshalb die niedrigen Pegelstände die Verfügbarkeit von Biokraftstoffen im Inland einschränken. Hierdurch wird die physische Erfüllung der THG-Quote erschwert, weshalb verpflichtete Unternehmen verstärkt auf den Erwerb von THG-Minderungen ausweichen müssen. Dieser Nachfrageanstieg hat den Wert von Minderungen steigen lassen und somit trotz reduzierter Produktverfügbarkeit die Wirtschaftlichkeit des Inverkehrbringens von HVO verbessert.

Daher nahm der traditionelle Aufschlag von HVO zu B7-Diesel zunächst ab. Seit Mitte August wird HVO bundesweit erstmals mit einem Preisabschlag gegenüber B7 gehandelt. Bei allgemein hohen Kraftstoffpreisen zeigen sich Verbraucher preissensibler, weshalb Kunden vermehrt zum günstigeren erneuerbaren Dieselkraftstoff greifen.

Der daraus resultierende Preisvorteil von HVO100 gegenüber B7-Diesel im Großhandel kommt mittlerweile zunehmend auch bei Endverbrauchern an. Während HVO100 an deutschen Tankstellen lange Zeit mit Aufschlägen von mehr als 20 ct/l gegenüber fossilem Diesel verkauft wurde, berichten Marktteilnehmer inzwischen von einer deutlichen Annäherung der Preise. Vielerorts bestehen inzwischen Aufschläge von 4 ct/l bis 8ct/l; an einzelnen Standorten wird HVO100 bereits günstiger angeboten als fossiler Diesel.

Von Marcel Pott

THG-Erlös durch Inverkehrbringen von fortschrittlichem HVO

Preisdifferenz HVO100 gegenüber B7-Bundesschnitt

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08/10/26

Hurricane heads for US Gulf coast, causing shut-ins

Houston, 8 October (Argus) — Hurricane Isaias, the first named hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, is moving toward the US Gulf coast near Alabama, threatening an area with significant refining assets and causing offshore oil and gas production shut-ins. Landfall is expected Friday night or early Saturday along the Florida-Alabama border, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm will be a strong Category 2 storm at landfall with sustained winds of up to 110 mph, according to AccuWeather. The NHC issued a hurricane warning with heavy rain and winds of 74 mph or higher from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the borders of Bay County and Gulf County in Florida. NHC also issued a tropical storm warning with winds between 39-73mph for a wider area stretching west to the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish borders in Louisiana and east to the Aucilla River in Florida. Isaias is currently in the Gulf of Mexico about 170 miles north of Progreso, Mexico, with sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts, according to the NHC. Oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico have evacuated workers and curbed output ahead of the storm. As of 12:30pm ET Wednesday, about 512,000 b/d of US oil production, or 25pc of total offshore output, was offline, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. About 350mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 16pc of total US Gulf output, also was shut. The onshore areas threatened by the storm includes several large oil refineries, such as Chevron's 356,000 b/d Pascagoula, Mississippi, plant, PBF Energy's 190,000 b/d Chalmette, Louisiana, refinery, Marathon's 617,000 b/d Garyville, Louisiana, refinery, Shell's 231,000 b/d Norco, Louisiana, refinery and Valero's 125,000 Meraux and 215,000 b/d St Charles facilities also in Louisiana. Power outages and flooding could impact refinery operations at a time when US refiners are operating at levels above 90pc amid global fuel shortages caused by the wars in the Middle East and Russia. The current NHC projected trajectory of Isaias would likely spare most of the refineries in Louisiana from the most severe hurricane impacts. By Eunice Bridges and Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Increase in Iran ship attacks follows rise in targets

08/10/26

Increase in Iran ship attacks follows rise in targets

New York, 8 October (Argus) — Iran's recent increase in vessel attacks in the strait of Hormuz is likely the result of an increase in the number of targets in the region, but it is unclear whether this resurgence of attacks will hamper rising oil flows through the strait. Iran has increased the pace of its attacks against commercial shipping in the last week, with increasingly deadly results. Two attacks occurred around the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, including the first attack inside the Mideast Gulf in a month, which resulted in multiple casualties . The number of casualties in the incident has not yet been confirmed. "Iran has seemingly more targets to shoot at now, which could mean that the same probability of impact is resulting in higher raw numbers of successful attacks," Joshua Tallis, research program director at the Center for Naval Analyses, told Argus . It is difficult to assess if Iran has improved its ability to target ships without the coastal radar capabilities the US claims it destroyed as part of its increased strikes in July, Tallis said. But it is reasonable to assume the country has adapted. "Higher traffic creates more opportunities for exposure, while shuttle operations send the same ships repeatedly through the risk area," Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at vessel tracking firm Vortexa, told Argus . Through 24 September, Vortexa identified 148 tankers involved in shuttle operations, with 85 tankers active during September, up from 11 in April, with 42 of those tankers completing four or more runs through the strait of Hormuz. "That repeat participation is important: this has become a regular operating model for a core group of ships," Jungman said. It is unclear if the recent increase in attacks against tankers will stymie the recovery of crude exports that are making their way — albeit very expensively and inefficiently — through the strait of Hormuz. "It's still a bit too early to say whether the most recent salvos would have an impact, but in the past we've seen attacks did not deter the main actors in the shuttle trade," Tomer Raanan, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Lloyds List Intelligence told Argus . By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Houthis renew threats against Saudi oil facilities

08/10/26

Houthis renew threats against Saudi oil facilities

Dubai, 8 October (Argus) — Yemen's Houthis renewed threats against Saudi oil facilities, airports and aviation on 8 October as fighting escalates between the group and forces aligned with Yemen's Saudi-backed internationally recognised government. "The armed forces warn all employees, experts and engineers working at all Saudi oil facilities not to be present in locations that represent targets for our forces so as not to endanger their lives," Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said. Saree said the warning covered facilities that had not previously been attacked, as well as those already targeted by the group. The Houthis have repeatedly targeted Saudi energy infrastructure in recent weeks. They most recently claimed attacks on state-controlled Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais on 4 October, after reporting a separate strike on an Aramco site in Riyadh a day earlier. The group said the attacks caused fires. Two sources separately confirmed an incident at the 126,000 b/d Riyadh refinery on 3 October, with one saying a storage tank was hit. There was no independent confirmation of the subsequent attacks. The group has also previously targeted the 400,000 b/d Jizan refinery on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast and facilities further north in Yanbu. Saree also renewed an earlier threat against Saudi civilian airports and aircraft using the country's airspace. Several Saudi airports have come under Houthi missile and drone attack in recent weeks. Saudi aviation regulator GACA said late on 7 October that attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid International airport and Abha International airport this week had killed three people and injured 36. The Houthis claimed another missile attack on King Khalid airport early on 8 October, which they said "struck its target with precision and caused a disruption of airport operations". Navigation service Flightradar24 listed 322 flights scheduled to arrive at or depart King Khalid International airport as cancelled and 185 as delayed as of 17:00 local time today. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India readies for global carbon trading ahead of Corsia

08/10/26

India readies for global carbon trading ahead of Corsia

Mumbai, 8 October (Argus) — India is preparing to launch compliance trading under its Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and access international carbon markets before the mandatory phase of the International Civil Aviation Organisation's (Icao) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) begins in 2027. The move could bolster the domestic carbon market and investment in emissions-cutting projects. The CCTS compliance market represents the future of carbon trading in India, SAF Association (Safa) Secretary General Rohit Kumar said at the India SAF Conclave and Awards in New Delhi on 28 September. CCTS carbon prices could reach $10/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), offering investors better returns than voluntary markets, where prices are uncapped. The CCTS is India's compliance carbon market, requiring obligated entities in emissions-intensive sectors to meet government-set greenhouse gas intensity targets. Firms that outperform their targets earn carbon credit certificates (CCCs), while those that fall short must acquire certificates to meet compliance obligations. Trading of CCCs is overseen by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission through approved exchanges. India is expected to participate in Corsia's mandatory second phase from 2027. Under the scheme, airlines can reduce their compliance obligations by using eligible sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or through Corsia Eligible Emissions Units (CEEUs), which are generated through international green projects, to compensate for the additional carbon emissions. India's proposed 1pc SAF blend in jet fuel alone may not meet future Corsia compliance requirements, industry participants said. CCCs generated under the CCTS could potentially contribute to international aviation compliance only if the underlying credit programme and units satisfy Icao eligibility requirements and receive host-country authorisation. This would require host-country approval, including Letter of Authorisation (LoA) by the government for units to be traded and utilized internationally. The global SAF market could reach $1 trillion by 2050, Kumar said, underscoring the role of carbon markets in attracting investment in high-quality green projects. "As the relevant frameworks develop, Corsia can become an important channel for accelerating India's climate transition and strengthening its participation in international carbon markets," Kumar told Argus separately. Carbon security The government should issue LoAs for projects already aligned with Corsia; otherwise, buyers may have to source credits from international markets, industry participants said. Major economies often buy credits from least developed countries (LDCs), where forestry and agriculture offer largely untapped carbon potential and domestic compliance obligations are limited or absent. European airlines participating in Corsia typically source credits from Icao-approved international carbon crediting programmes. Platforms such as the International Air Transport Association (Iata) Aviation Carbon Exchange (ACE) provide access to crediting programmes including Verra, Gold Standard, American Carbon Registry (ACR) and the Climate Action Reserve (CAR) registry. These programmes issue carbon credits that airlines can buy and retire to comply with Corsia requirements. India does not want to rely on overseas carbon credits. In 2025, it established the National Designated Authority for Implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (NDAIAPA) to assess, approve and authorise carbon-credit projects aligned with India's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and international mitigation schemes such as Corsia. But the framework and its implementation remain unclear. Regulatory hurdles India's carbon market can expand internationally if project developers, crediting programmes, investors, airlines and overseas buyers operate under a predictable framework, Safa's Kumar said. The framework should define host-country approval and LoA requirements; eligibility of activities and credits under Article 6.2; authorisation for other international mitigation purposes, including Corsia; first transfers and corresponding adjustments; registry and serial-number tracking; treatment of authorised and non-authorised credits; reporting in India's Biennial Transparency Report; and safeguards against double counting, claiming and use. "India's key advantage is the scale of its mitigation opportunity. Its large energy-intensive industrial base offers substantial potential for energy efficiency, process optimisation, fuel switching, renewable-energy integration and deployment of low-carbon technologies," Kumar added. Under Article 6 of the UN Paris Agreement, a carbon credit cannot count towards both a country's NDC and an international aviation obligation such as Corsia. India therefore needs clear rules to prevent double counting. The government is developing a framework to meet Corsia requirements, support domestic climate goals and build a strong carbon asset base for global markets. By Nikhil Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

France to release 10mn bl of diesel in Nov-Jan

08/10/26

France to release 10mn bl of diesel in Nov-Jan

London, 8 October (Argus) — The French government will release 10mn bl of diesel from strategic reserves between November and January, it said, becoming the first country to detail its commitment under the recent G7 plan. The government will sell its diesel at its "book value" of €0.28/l, and it expects the consequent reduction in distributors' supply costs to be passed on to consumer. It expects a national average pump price drop of €0.12-0.18/l, and said the country's main distributors have committed to this. "The objective is to support the purchasing power of motorists during the winter period, particularly French people who use their vehicle daily for work," the government said. The release works out at about 110,000 b/d over the three months, or about 20pc of French road diesel demand . It accounts for 10pc of the 100mn bl release announced by the G7 on 2 October. The IEA said on Wednesday that its member governments backed prioritising diesel stocks releases as part of that wider commitment, which appears to conclude the programme first announced in March. French distributors will have up to a year to replenish the strategic stocks, said prime minister Sebastien Lecornu. The measure buys the nation time to reduce its dependence, which leaves it exposed to global crises and decisions taken elsewhere, Lecornu said, adding that this is why the government has launched its electrification plan. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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