Hurricane heads for US Gulf coast, causing shut-ins

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
08/10/26

Hurricane Isaias, the first named hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, is moving toward the US Gulf coast near Alabama, threatening an area with significant refining assets and causing offshore oil and gas production shut-ins.

Landfall is expected Friday night or early Saturday along the Florida-Alabama border, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm will be a strong Category 2 storm at landfall with sustained winds of up to 110 mph, according to AccuWeather.

The NHC issued a hurricane warning with heavy rain and winds of 74 mph or higher from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the borders of Bay County and Gulf County in Florida.

NHC also issued a tropical storm warning with winds between 39-73mph for a wider area stretching west to the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish borders in Louisiana and east to the Aucilla River in Florida.

Isaias is currently in the Gulf of Mexico about 170 miles north of Progreso, Mexico, with sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts, according to the NHC. Oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico have evacuated workers and curbed output ahead of the storm.

As of 12:30pm ET Wednesday, about 512,000 b/d of US oil production, or 25pc of total offshore output, was offline, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. About 350mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 16pc of total US Gulf output, also was shut.

The onshore areas threatened by the storm includes several large oil refineries, such as Chevron's 356,000 b/d Pascagoula, Mississippi, plant, PBF Energy's 190,000 b/d Chalmette, Louisiana, refinery, Marathon's 617,000 b/d Garyville, Louisiana, refinery, Shell's 231,000 b/d Norco, Louisiana, refinery and Valero's 125,000 Meraux and 215,000 b/d St Charles facilities also in Louisiana.

Power outages and flooding could impact refinery operations at a time when US refiners are operating at levels above 90pc amid global fuel shortages caused by the wars in the Middle East and Russia.

The current NHC projected trajectory of Isaias would likely spare most of the refineries in Louisiana from the most severe hurricane impacts.

By Eunice Bridges and Stephen Cunningham

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08/10/26

HVO-Absatz nimmt durch Preisvorteil stark zu

Hamburg, 8 October (Argus) — Die Handelsaktivität für HVO100 in Deutschland dürfte sich im laufenden Jahr nach Einschätzung mehrerer Marktteilnehmer gegenüber dem Vorjahr etwa verdoppeln. Ausschlaggebend hierfür ist, dass HVO zur TKW-Verladung bundesweit derzeit mit einem Abschlag zu B7-Diesel gehandelt wird, sodass Endverbraucher vermehrt auf das günstigere Produkt umsteigen. Verbraucher haben in diesem Jahr Händlern zufolge deutlich mehr HVO100 angefragt als im Vorjahr. Insbesondere Kunden aus der Landwirtschaft und gewerbliche Flottenbetreiber hätten ihre Beschaffungsmengen ausgeweitet. So berichtet ein Händler aus dem Süden Deutschlands, dass die verkauften HVO-Mengen in den ersten neun Monaten des Jahres 2026 bereits klar über dem Gesamtjahresniveau von 2025 liegen. Auch andere Marktteilnehmer berichten von einem deutlich lebhafteren Handel und sprechen von einer erwarteten Verdopplung der Marktaktivität im Jahr 2026 gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Grund für diesen Anstieg ist zum einen der Wegfall der Doppelenrechenbarkeit fortschrittlicher Biokraftstoffe . Zuvor konnten fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe aus Abfall- und Reststoffen doppelt auf die Treibhausgasminderungsquote angerechnet werden. Darüber hinaus ist auch die zunehmende Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von HVO gegenüber fossilem Diesel ausschlaggebend: So stiegen die deutschen B7-Inlandsdurchschnittspreise im Zuge des Iran-Krieges im Vergleich zum 27. Februar um bis zu rund 48 % an. HVO ist von dieser Entwicklung weniger stark betroffen, da der Kraftstoff nicht auf fossilen Rohstoffen basiert und anderen Preisbildungsmechanismen folgt. Zum anderen wird diese Entwicklung durch historisch hohe Erlöse aus dem Handel mit Treibhausgasminderungen (THG-Minderungen) gefördert, welche durch das Inverkehrbringen von HVO generiert werden. Diese THG-Erlöse können genutzt werden, um die Großhandelspreise von HVO zu senken und das Produkt wettbewerbsfähig zu machen. So erreichten die aus dem Inverkehrbringen von fortschrittlichem HVO generierten THG-Erlöse in den vergangenen Wochen Rekordwerte und verharren weiterhin auf einem hohen Niveau (siehe Grafik). Begründet ist der höhere THG-Erlös im anhaltenden Niedrigwasser auf dem Rhein: Ein erheblicher Anteil der deutschen Biokraftstoffversorgung gelangt über das Handelszentrum Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerpen nach Deutschland gelangt, weshalb die niedrigen Pegelstände die Verfügbarkeit von Biokraftstoffen im Inland einschränken. Hierdurch wird die physische Erfüllung der THG-Quote erschwert, weshalb verpflichtete Unternehmen verstärkt auf den Erwerb von THG-Minderungen ausweichen müssen. Dieser Nachfrageanstieg hat den Wert von Minderungen steigen lassen und somit trotz reduzierter Produktverfügbarkeit die Wirtschaftlichkeit des Inverkehrbringens von HVO verbessert. Daher nahm der traditionelle Aufschlag von HVO zu B7-Diesel zunächst ab. Seit Mitte August wird HVO bundesweit erstmals mit einem Preisabschlag gegenüber B7 gehandelt. Bei allgemein hohen Kraftstoffpreisen zeigen sich Verbraucher preissensibler, weshalb Kunden vermehrt zum günstigeren erneuerbaren Dieselkraftstoff greifen. Der daraus resultierende Preisvorteil von HVO100 gegenüber B7-Diesel im Großhandel kommt mittlerweile zunehmend auch bei Endverbrauchern an. Während HVO100 an deutschen Tankstellen lange Zeit mit Aufschlägen von mehr als 20 ct/l gegenüber fossilem Diesel verkauft wurde, berichten Marktteilnehmer inzwischen von einer deutlichen Annäherung der Preise. Vielerorts bestehen inzwischen Aufschläge von 4 ct/l bis 8ct/l; an einzelnen Standorten wird HVO100 bereits günstiger angeboten als fossiler Diesel. Von Marcel Pott THG-Erlös durch Inverkehrbringen von fortschrittlichem HVO Preisdifferenz HVO100 gegenüber B7-Bundesschnitt Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Increase in Iran ship attacks follows rise in targets

08/10/26

Increase in Iran ship attacks follows rise in targets

New York, 8 October (Argus) — Iran's recent increase in vessel attacks in the strait of Hormuz is likely the result of an increase in the number of targets in the region, but it is unclear whether this resurgence of attacks will hamper rising oil flows through the strait. Iran has increased the pace of its attacks against commercial shipping in the last week, with increasingly deadly results. Two attacks occurred around the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, including the first attack inside the Mideast Gulf in a month, which resulted in multiple casualties . The number of casualties in the incident has not yet been confirmed. "Iran has seemingly more targets to shoot at now, which could mean that the same probability of impact is resulting in higher raw numbers of successful attacks," Joshua Tallis, research program director at the Center for Naval Analyses, told Argus . It is difficult to assess if Iran has improved its ability to target ships without the coastal radar capabilities the US claims it destroyed as part of its increased strikes in July, Tallis said. But it is reasonable to assume the country has adapted. "Higher traffic creates more opportunities for exposure, while shuttle operations send the same ships repeatedly through the risk area," Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at vessel tracking firm Vortexa, told Argus . Through 24 September, Vortexa identified 148 tankers involved in shuttle operations, with 85 tankers active during September, up from 11 in April, with 42 of those tankers completing four or more runs through the strait of Hormuz. "That repeat participation is important: this has become a regular operating model for a core group of ships," Jungman said. It is unclear if the recent increase in attacks against tankers will stymie the recovery of crude exports that are making their way — albeit very expensively and inefficiently — through the strait of Hormuz. "It's still a bit too early to say whether the most recent salvos would have an impact, but in the past we've seen attacks did not deter the main actors in the shuttle trade," Tomer Raanan, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Lloyds List Intelligence told Argus . By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Houthis renew threats against Saudi oil facilities

08/10/26

Houthis renew threats against Saudi oil facilities

Dubai, 8 October (Argus) — Yemen's Houthis renewed threats against Saudi oil facilities, airports and aviation on 8 October as fighting escalates between the group and forces aligned with Yemen's Saudi-backed internationally recognised government. "The armed forces warn all employees, experts and engineers working at all Saudi oil facilities not to be present in locations that represent targets for our forces so as not to endanger their lives," Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said. Saree said the warning covered facilities that had not previously been attacked, as well as those already targeted by the group. The Houthis have repeatedly targeted Saudi energy infrastructure in recent weeks. They most recently claimed attacks on state-controlled Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais on 4 October, after reporting a separate strike on an Aramco site in Riyadh a day earlier. The group said the attacks caused fires. Two sources separately confirmed an incident at the 126,000 b/d Riyadh refinery on 3 October, with one saying a storage tank was hit. There was no independent confirmation of the subsequent attacks. The group has also previously targeted the 400,000 b/d Jizan refinery on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast and facilities further north in Yanbu. Saree also renewed an earlier threat against Saudi civilian airports and aircraft using the country's airspace. Several Saudi airports have come under Houthi missile and drone attack in recent weeks. Saudi aviation regulator GACA said late on 7 October that attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid International airport and Abha International airport this week had killed three people and injured 36. The Houthis claimed another missile attack on King Khalid airport early on 8 October, which they said "struck its target with precision and caused a disruption of airport operations". Navigation service Flightradar24 listed 322 flights scheduled to arrive at or depart King Khalid International airport as cancelled and 185 as delayed as of 17:00 local time today. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

France to release 10mn bl of diesel in Nov-Jan

08/10/26

France to release 10mn bl of diesel in Nov-Jan

London, 8 October (Argus) — The French government will release 10mn bl of diesel from strategic reserves between November and January, it said, becoming the first country to detail its commitment under the recent G7 plan. The government will sell its diesel at its "book value" of €0.28/l, and it expects the consequent reduction in distributors' supply costs to be passed on to consumer. It expects a national average pump price drop of €0.12-0.18/l, and said the country's main distributors have committed to this. "The objective is to support the purchasing power of motorists during the winter period, particularly French people who use their vehicle daily for work," the government said. The release works out at about 110,000 b/d over the three months, or about 20pc of French road diesel demand . It accounts for 10pc of the 100mn bl release announced by the G7 on 2 October. The IEA said on Wednesday that its member governments backed prioritising diesel stocks releases as part of that wider commitment, which appears to conclude the programme first announced in March. French distributors will have up to a year to replenish the strategic stocks, said prime minister Sebastien Lecornu. The measure buys the nation time to reduce its dependence, which leaves it exposed to global crises and decisions taken elsewhere, Lecornu said, adding that this is why the government has launched its electrification plan. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Gulf VLCC freight rates hit record highs

07/10/26

US Gulf VLCC freight rates hit record highs

New York, 7 October (Argus) — Freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) loading on the US Gulf coast (USGC) soared to historic highs today as Asia-Pacific buyers continue to scramble to secure barrels to maintain their refined products output. A charterer put a Sinokor-owned VLCC on subjects for a US Gulf coast to Asia-Pacific voyage loading from late November at $81mn lumpsum today, the highest recorded rate on the route since Argus began assessing it in 2017. The deal represented a $17.75mn jump day-over-day for the rate on the route, dwarfing that rate's pre-Iran war high of $22.5mn by over $63mn. That deal was the latest after a run-up in freight rates from steady activity over the course of the day, with another charterer putting the Sea Jade VLCC on subjects for a US Gulf coast-South Korea voyage loading from early November at $77mn. Strong Chinese crude restocking demand, which kicked off in late September, is fueling the rally in crude freight rates globally as Chinese refiners look to supply high refined products demand from throughout Asia-Pacific, with Mideast Gulf flows mostly off line. This wave of demand hit Aframaxes and Suezmaxes first, ballooning rates for these segments to their own all-time highs before sweeping back to the already elevated VLCCs after savings offered by the midsize segments shrunk. Charterers put only three VLCCs on subjects within the spot market for US Gulf coast-loading voyages in the second half of September, compared to the deluge of midsize tanker shipments in that period. Iranian attacks on shipping within the strait of Hormuz are tightening VLCC supply overall by not only creating longer, inefficient alternative voyages but also by trapping VLCCs within the Mideast Gulf itself. At the same time, a "shuttle service" of VLCCs by operators capitalizing on very high freight rates for transiting via the strait of Hormuz to transfer crude onto tankers waiting just outside the waterway has further reduced the size of the global fleet. What were once single VLCC shipments of crude from the Mideast Gulf now involve multiple vessels, with the additional waiting time these ships need to complete transfer operations within a rapidly changing environment creating inefficiencies for every vessel segment engaged in the trade. Meanwhile, some of these inefficiencies are holding up individual VLCCs for a month of extra travel time. A charterer put the DHT Opal VLCC on subjects today for a Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, to South Korea voyage loading from late October at $73.9mn. Notably, this shipment will require the vessel to transit north via the Suez Canal, travel west out of the Mediterranean and around the bottom of Africa to then complete its journey because of the threat of Houthi attacks within the Red Sea on Saudi shipping. The typical voyage via the strait of Bab el-Mandeb would take around 23 days, but this new routing instead requires over 50 days. There are 29 VLCCs actively carrying Saudi crude from either Yanbu or Sidi Kerir, Egypt — the latter port from where Saudia Arabia has been shipping crude for export via the Sumed pipeline to bypass the Suez Canal — into Asia-Pacific via this route to avoid Bab el-Mandeb on 7 October, Vortexa data show. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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