Hurricane heads for US Gulf coast: Update

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
08/10/26

Updates shut-in production data; port information

Hurricane Isaias, the first named hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, is moving toward the US Gulf coast near Alabama, threatening an area with significant refining assets and causing 1.3mn b/d of oil production to be shut in.

Landfall is expected Friday night or early Saturday along the Florida-Alabama border, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm will be a strong Category 2 storm at landfall with sustained winds of up to 110 mph, according to AccuWeather.

The NHC issued a hurricane warning with heavy rain and winds of 74 mph or higher from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the borders of Bay County and Gulf County in Florida.

NHC also issued a tropical storm warning with winds between 39-73mph for a wider area stretching west to the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish borders in Louisiana and east to the Aucilla River in Florida.

Isaias is currently in the Gulf of Mexico about 170 miles north of Progreso, Mexico, with sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts, according to the NHC. Oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico have evacuated workers and curbed output ahead of the storm.

As of 12:30pm ET Thursday, 1.3mn b/d of US oil production, or 63pc of total offshore output, was offline, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. About 1.1 Bcf/d of natural gas production, or 57pc of total US Gulf output, also was shut.

Shell said earlier this week it was evacuating all staff and shut production at its Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito, and Appomattox assets as a precaution. Shell also moved non-essential personnel from its Stones platform.

Chevron said it had shut in production at five of its operated facilities in the region.

The onshore areas threatened by the storm include several large oil refineries, such as Chevron's 356,000 b/d Pascagoula, Mississippi, plant, PBF Energy's 190,000 b/d Chalmette, Louisiana, refinery, Marathon's 617,000 b/d Garyville, Louisiana, refinery, Shell's 231,000 b/d Norco, Louisiana, refinery and Valero's 125,000 Meraux and 215,000 b/d St Charles facilities also in Louisiana.

Power outages and flooding could impact refinery operations at a time when US refiners are operating at levels above 90pc amid global fuel shortages caused by the wars in the Middle East and Russia.

The current NHC projected trajectory of Isaias would likely spare most of the refineries in Louisiana from the most severe hurricane impacts.

The US Coast Guard set the port of Mobile, Alabama, under condition Yankee, meaning gale force winds (39-54mph) were expected within 24 hours. Traffic restrictions were in effect Thursday morning allowing vessels to enter the port only with Coast Guard permission. The port said it would suspend vessel operations at its public berths at 1pm ET Thursday.

The Coast Guard on 7 October set condition X-ray for the ports of Plaquemines, New Orleans, and St Bernard in Louisiana, which means gale force winds were forecast within 48 hours. Those ports remain open to commercial traffic.

By Eunice Bridges and Stephen Cunningham

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08/10/26

No plans to attack Iran before 3 Nov: Trump

Washington, 8 October (Argus) — The US will not resume hostilities against Iran before the 3 November midterm congressional elections, President Donald Trump said on Thursday. The US is "having productive discussions" with Iran but the US naval blockade and campaign of economic pressure against Iran will continue, Trump said in a social media post. He claimed that 22mn bl of crude flowed through the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday under the protection of the US military. Trump's statement is not an ironclad assurance that direct hostilities between the US and Iran will not resume any time soon. Tehran has confirmed continued indirect dialogue with the US, through mediators, but chances of a diplomatic breakthrough appear low. Trump, meanwhile, is working to prevent a further increase in US retail fuel prices, which already have hurt the Republican party's chances of retaining control of both chambers of the US Congress at the midterms. WTI and Ice Brent crude futures climbed higher on Thursday after Iran expanded attacks on tankers in the Mideast Gulf and the strait of Hormuz. November Nymex WTI fell after Trump's statement, but it was still 4pc higher, at $91.65/bl, than the Wednesday settlement price as of 1:45pm ET. Iran has increased the pace of its attacks against commercial shipping in the last week, challenging the Trump administration's claim that it had restored oil flows through the strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels. The US-sponsored operation to enable transporting greater volumes of oil through Hormuz has significantly increased freight and insurance costs for the tankers that do make it to the Gulf of Oman without being hit by Iran. The Central Command (Centcom), which oversees the Middle East-based US forces, on Thursday pegged the daily flow of oil and other products through Hormuz at 20mn b/d. Centcom chief Admiral Brad Cooper, during a virtual meeting with the representatives of the freight industry "acknowledged the sacrifices made by civilian crews due to unwarranted Iranian attacks". The US Treasury Department, also on Thursday, announced sanctions on an additional 17 tankers accused of transporting Iranian bitumen, asphalt, ethylene, fuel oil, naphtha, propane and crude to markets in Asia. Treasury also announced sanctions against India-based broker Samudra Marine Services and 18 other companies in the UAE, UK, Turkey and other countries, accusing the firms of facilitating sales of Iranian crude and products. Do the midterms matter? Iran has been part of Trump's election narrative for about a month, as he claimed that Tehran is hoping for a victory by the US Democrats who, according to Trump, would be too soft on the Iranian government. Officially, Tehran has pronounced itself indifferent to the outcome of the US congressional elections. Tehran has pitched a plan to stop attacking ships passing through Hormuz if the US removes the naval blockade, pauses sanctions and repatriates frozen Iranian funds in foreign banks — effectively returning to the terms of the now defunct June "memorandum of understanding" between the US and Iran. Trump said earlier this month he rejected the proposal. But Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi claimed on Thursday that the Iranian plan remains a subject of discussions. Trump encountered significant blowback in the US and the Mideast Gulf after concluding a deal with Iran in June, Washington think tank Arab Gulf States Institute executive vice-president William Roebuck said on 6 October. Trump as a result came to the conclusion that "he was better off leaning into the war through the midterms and not cutting a deal that would involve a lot of concessions that would reflect the kind of leverage that Iran had built up in the course of the the war," Roebuck said. US Democratic lawmakers earlier this year succeeded in advancing resolutions, with limited Republican support, that called on Trump to end hostilities with Iran. But even a majority-Democratic Congress cannot compel the White House to stop the war unless it votes down the Pentagon's request for supplemental funding to replenish the US munitions stocks and pay for other costs of the war — an issue that may not find broad support within the Democratic party. Trump appears to believe "that he'll be freer, actually, to do what he wants and to put more pressure" on Iran after the midterms, Roebuck said. "I don't think that's going to work, but that's the dynamic that (Trump is) working with." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hurricane heads for US Gulf coast, causing shut-ins

08/10/26

Hurricane heads for US Gulf coast, causing shut-ins

Houston, 8 October (Argus) — Hurricane Isaias, the first named hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, is moving toward the US Gulf coast near Alabama, threatening an area with significant refining assets and causing offshore oil and gas production shut-ins. Landfall is expected Friday night or early Saturday along the Florida-Alabama border, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm will be a strong Category 2 storm at landfall with sustained winds of up to 110 mph, according to AccuWeather. The NHC issued a hurricane warning with heavy rain and winds of 74 mph or higher from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the borders of Bay County and Gulf County in Florida. NHC also issued a tropical storm warning with winds between 39-73mph for a wider area stretching west to the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish borders in Louisiana and east to the Aucilla River in Florida. Isaias is currently in the Gulf of Mexico about 170 miles north of Progreso, Mexico, with sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts, according to the NHC. Oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico have evacuated workers and curbed output ahead of the storm. As of 12:30pm ET Wednesday, about 512,000 b/d of US oil production, or 25pc of total offshore output, was offline, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. About 350mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 16pc of total US Gulf output, also was shut. The onshore areas threatened by the storm includes several large oil refineries, such as Chevron's 356,000 b/d Pascagoula, Mississippi, plant, PBF Energy's 190,000 b/d Chalmette, Louisiana, refinery, Marathon's 617,000 b/d Garyville, Louisiana, refinery, Shell's 231,000 b/d Norco, Louisiana, refinery and Valero's 125,000 Meraux and 215,000 b/d St Charles facilities also in Louisiana. Power outages and flooding could impact refinery operations at a time when US refiners are operating at levels above 90pc amid global fuel shortages caused by the wars in the Middle East and Russia. The current NHC projected trajectory of Isaias would likely spare most of the refineries in Louisiana from the most severe hurricane impacts. By Eunice Bridges and Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

HVO-Absatz nimmt durch Preisvorteil stark zu

08/10/26

HVO-Absatz nimmt durch Preisvorteil stark zu

Hamburg, 8 October (Argus) — Die Handelsaktivität für HVO100 in Deutschland dürfte sich im laufenden Jahr nach Einschätzung mehrerer Marktteilnehmer gegenüber dem Vorjahr etwa verdoppeln. Ausschlaggebend hierfür ist, dass HVO zur TKW-Verladung bundesweit derzeit mit einem Abschlag zu B7-Diesel gehandelt wird, sodass Endverbraucher vermehrt auf das günstigere Produkt umsteigen. Verbraucher haben in diesem Jahr Händlern zufolge deutlich mehr HVO100 angefragt als im Vorjahr. Insbesondere Kunden aus der Landwirtschaft und gewerbliche Flottenbetreiber hätten ihre Beschaffungsmengen ausgeweitet. So berichtet ein Händler aus dem Süden Deutschlands, dass die verkauften HVO-Mengen in den ersten neun Monaten des Jahres 2026 bereits klar über dem Gesamtjahresniveau von 2025 liegen. Auch andere Marktteilnehmer berichten von einem deutlich lebhafteren Handel und sprechen von einer erwarteten Verdopplung der Marktaktivität im Jahr 2026 gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Grund für diesen Anstieg ist zum einen der Wegfall der Doppelenrechenbarkeit fortschrittlicher Biokraftstoffe . Zuvor konnten fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe aus Abfall- und Reststoffen doppelt auf die Treibhausgasminderungsquote angerechnet werden. Darüber hinaus ist auch die zunehmende Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von HVO gegenüber fossilem Diesel ausschlaggebend: So stiegen die deutschen B7-Inlandsdurchschnittspreise im Zuge des Iran-Krieges im Vergleich zum 27. Februar um bis zu rund 48 % an. HVO ist von dieser Entwicklung weniger stark betroffen, da der Kraftstoff nicht auf fossilen Rohstoffen basiert und anderen Preisbildungsmechanismen folgt. Zum anderen wird diese Entwicklung durch historisch hohe Erlöse aus dem Handel mit Treibhausgasminderungen (THG-Minderungen) gefördert, welche durch das Inverkehrbringen von HVO generiert werden. Diese THG-Erlöse können genutzt werden, um die Großhandelspreise von HVO zu senken und das Produkt wettbewerbsfähig zu machen. So erreichten die aus dem Inverkehrbringen von fortschrittlichem HVO generierten THG-Erlöse in den vergangenen Wochen Rekordwerte und verharren weiterhin auf einem hohen Niveau (siehe Grafik). Begründet ist der höhere THG-Erlös im anhaltenden Niedrigwasser auf dem Rhein: Ein erheblicher Anteil der deutschen Biokraftstoffversorgung gelangt über das Handelszentrum Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerpen nach Deutschland gelangt, weshalb die niedrigen Pegelstände die Verfügbarkeit von Biokraftstoffen im Inland einschränken. Hierdurch wird die physische Erfüllung der THG-Quote erschwert, weshalb verpflichtete Unternehmen verstärkt auf den Erwerb von THG-Minderungen ausweichen müssen. Dieser Nachfrageanstieg hat den Wert von Minderungen steigen lassen und somit trotz reduzierter Produktverfügbarkeit die Wirtschaftlichkeit des Inverkehrbringens von HVO verbessert. Daher nahm der traditionelle Aufschlag von HVO zu B7-Diesel zunächst ab. Seit Mitte August wird HVO bundesweit erstmals mit einem Preisabschlag gegenüber B7 gehandelt. Bei allgemein hohen Kraftstoffpreisen zeigen sich Verbraucher preissensibler, weshalb Kunden vermehrt zum günstigeren erneuerbaren Dieselkraftstoff greifen. Der daraus resultierende Preisvorteil von HVO100 gegenüber B7-Diesel im Großhandel kommt mittlerweile zunehmend auch bei Endverbrauchern an. Während HVO100 an deutschen Tankstellen lange Zeit mit Aufschlägen von mehr als 20 ct/l gegenüber fossilem Diesel verkauft wurde, berichten Marktteilnehmer inzwischen von einer deutlichen Annäherung der Preise. Vielerorts bestehen inzwischen Aufschläge von 4 ct/l bis 8ct/l; an einzelnen Standorten wird HVO100 bereits günstiger angeboten als fossiler Diesel. Von Marcel Pott THG-Erlös durch Inverkehrbringen von fortschrittlichem HVO Preisdifferenz HVO100 gegenüber B7-Bundesschnitt Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Increase in Iran ship attacks follows rise in targets

08/10/26

Increase in Iran ship attacks follows rise in targets

New York, 8 October (Argus) — Iran's recent increase in vessel attacks in the strait of Hormuz is likely the result of an increase in the number of targets in the region, but it is unclear whether this resurgence of attacks will hamper rising oil flows through the strait. Iran has increased the pace of its attacks against commercial shipping in the last week, with increasingly deadly results. Two attacks occurred around the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, including the first attack inside the Mideast Gulf in a month, which resulted in multiple casualties . The number of casualties in the incident has not yet been confirmed. "Iran has seemingly more targets to shoot at now, which could mean that the same probability of impact is resulting in higher raw numbers of successful attacks," Joshua Tallis, research program director at the Center for Naval Analyses, told Argus . It is difficult to assess if Iran has improved its ability to target ships without the coastal radar capabilities the US claims it destroyed as part of its increased strikes in July, Tallis said. But it is reasonable to assume the country has adapted. "Higher traffic creates more opportunities for exposure, while shuttle operations send the same ships repeatedly through the risk area," Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at vessel tracking firm Vortexa, told Argus . Through 24 September, Vortexa identified 148 tankers involved in shuttle operations, with 85 tankers active during September, up from 11 in April, with 42 of those tankers completing four or more runs through the strait of Hormuz. "That repeat participation is important: this has become a regular operating model for a core group of ships," Jungman said. It is unclear if the recent increase in attacks against tankers will stymie the recovery of crude exports that are making their way — albeit very expensively and inefficiently — through the strait of Hormuz. "It's still a bit too early to say whether the most recent salvos would have an impact, but in the past we've seen attacks did not deter the main actors in the shuttle trade," Tomer Raanan, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Lloyds List Intelligence told Argus . By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Houthis renew threats against Saudi oil facilities

08/10/26

Houthis renew threats against Saudi oil facilities

Dubai, 8 October (Argus) — Yemen's Houthis renewed threats against Saudi oil facilities, airports and aviation on 8 October as fighting escalates between the group and forces aligned with Yemen's Saudi-backed internationally recognised government. "The armed forces warn all employees, experts and engineers working at all Saudi oil facilities not to be present in locations that represent targets for our forces so as not to endanger their lives," Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said. Saree said the warning covered facilities that had not previously been attacked, as well as those already targeted by the group. The Houthis have repeatedly targeted Saudi energy infrastructure in recent weeks. They most recently claimed attacks on state-controlled Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais on 4 October, after reporting a separate strike on an Aramco site in Riyadh a day earlier. The group said the attacks caused fires. Two sources separately confirmed an incident at the 126,000 b/d Riyadh refinery on 3 October, with one saying a storage tank was hit. There was no independent confirmation of the subsequent attacks. The group has also previously targeted the 400,000 b/d Jizan refinery on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast and facilities further north in Yanbu. Saree also renewed an earlier threat against Saudi civilian airports and aircraft using the country's airspace. Several Saudi airports have come under Houthi missile and drone attack in recent weeks. Saudi aviation regulator GACA said late on 7 October that attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid International airport and Abha International airport this week had killed three people and injured 36. The Houthis claimed another missile attack on King Khalid airport early on 8 October, which they said "struck its target with precision and caused a disruption of airport operations". Navigation service Flightradar24 listed 322 flights scheduled to arrive at or depart King Khalid International airport as cancelled and 185 as delayed as of 17:00 local time today. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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