Canada's oil sector is expected to grow in 2027 as progress among proposed export pipelines and friendlier policy from Ottawa are expected to outweigh declining benchmark prices, ATB Capital Markets said in its Fall 2026 Energy Sector Survey.
The semi-annual survey, released on Thursday, garnered feedback from executives at 91 companies including exploration and production (E&P), energy services and institutional investors. Calgary-based ATB's survey ran from 14-28 September and emulates the Dallas Fed survey in the US.
About 96pc of oil companies plan to grow production by 10pc in 2027 compared with 2026 levels, despite an assumption that WTI crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, will fall to $65-75/bl across next year. About half of E&P companies expect to increase total capital budgets.
About 84pc of E&P companies said their outlook improved over the past three months and 88pc anticipate the market to improve further in the coming six months.
Seven out of 10 energy service companies, meanwhile, indicated an improved outlook over the prior three months with eight in 10 expecting better times in the coming six months.
Nearly nine in 10 of those surveyed are encouraged by steps the federal government has taken to support the industry, with a similar number expecting foreign direct investment to rise over the next two years.
Institutional investors say they are now more likely to invest in Canada as a consequence of the ongoing US-Iran war that has cut off some Middle East supplies. Nearly 80pc indicated they are either moderately, or significantly, more willing to invest in Canadian energy now.
"The background for Canadian energy is the best I've seen since the late 1970s," one institutional investor said.
Most also view Venezuela as being a low-impact risk in the next three to five years.
But improving sentiment in Canada's oil and gas sector has energy services executives reporting "excess demand" rather than "excess capacity" for the first time since 2022, ATB said.
"We continue to see employment constraints in getting well servicing crews to meet customer demand," an energy services executive said, but added this issue is not as significant on the drilling side.
While tight oil export capacity has become less concerning for industry with pipeline proposals making either regulatory or commercial progress, getting them built remains a top priority.
About 91pc of respondents with a view said the Trans Mountain-led 1mn b/d Pacific Link pipeline will reach a positive final investment decision, as will the related Oil Sands Alliance's Pathways carbon capture project which continues to draw skepticism over its benefits.
About 74pc of respondents with an opinion said the Pathways project will either have no impact or be harmful to the industry's competitiveness in the long run.
South Bow's 600,000 b/d Prairie Connector is generally expected to also go forward, while respondents were not optimistic about the Ontario-led 500,000 b/d Northern Shield Energy Corridor pipeline.
The federal government's commitment to Pacific Link, one-year project approvals and a new accelerated tax deduction would be a "significant tail wind for Canadian oil and gas" should those become a reality, an energy services executive said.
The governing Liberal party has come to understand that slow decision-making and being largely reliant on a single customer, the US, has become a weakness amid trade hostilities.
