The average assumption for a return to pre-war flows through the strait of Hormuz is early April, according to the views of 19 LNG market participants.
The predicted range spanned late December this year to September 2027. This is a stark departure from views this summer, where most firms were taking a "month plus one" approach to a Hormuz restart, where firms would assume in their supply models that the strait would be back to normal next month on a rolling monthly basis. This has removed supply expectations for this winter, in turn supporting prices, which have risen to their highest since late 2022.
Some market participants don't have a Hormuz restart date assumption, with one trader believing flows will fluctuate. And some other traders are assuming indefinite continuation to current dark transit flows through the strait.
Other participants are not taking their own view on a normalisation of Hormuz, and are instead placing the odds for a normalisation into their supply models, as those odds reflect live changes in sentiment in the US-Iran war, they said.
Views are also split on how quickly Qatari flows could ramp up. Most market participants are assuming present dark transit flows through the strait will remain stable, with Qatar's 64.2mn t/yr Ras Laffan LNG export terminal ramping up to full production in 1-2 months once Hormuz flows have normalised. Once the strait opens, Ras Laffan could "get back to normal operations within a couple of weeks", QatarEnergy chief executive Saad Sherida al-Kaabi said last month. But there could be a bottleneck in near-term shipping availability, weighing on supply.
And some market participants are expecting a slow ramp-up in dark transits throughout next year before reaching full production if the strait reopens.
The lack of consensus on a date for a Hormuz restart, as well as how to approach modelling supply, highlights the lack of certainty in the market regarding LNG flows through the strait.
