Bolsonaro to challenge Brazil election results

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Crude oil
26/10/26

Brazilian senator Flavio Bolsonaro said it will be "impossible" to accept the results of his Sunday loss to incumbent president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and that he would seek to have the election annulled.

Lula beat Bolsonaro in the runoff on 25 October with nearly 51.8pc of votes. The supreme electoral court (TSE) extended voting by two hours following requests by both Lula and Bolsonaro's parties. Bolsonaro later called that decision "unacceptable" and said that he would seek the election's annulment.

Most Latin American leaders have congratulated Lula on his victory. The exception is Argentina's Javier Milei.

US president Donald Trump has also yet to acknowledge Brazil's electoral results.

Showing up

Lula's win came on the back of historic voter turnout in Brazil.

During the first round on 4 October — which Bolsonaro led with 47pc of votes' against Lula's 45.16pc — over 33mn Brazilians, or nearly 21.1pc of voters, did not vote. That figure fell to 30.5mn in the second round — or 19.2pc of voters — the lowest in 20 years.

By Lucas Parolin

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26/10/26

US majors set for profit boost from refining tailwinds

New York, 26 October (Argus) — ExxonMobil and Chevron's third-quarter results are expected to benefit from sharply higher refining margins, as global supply disruption caused by the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts tightens fuel markets. Until now, the US majors have used their cash windfall from higher crude prices and the refining squeeze to pay down debt and shore up their balance sheets, and have resisted the temptation to relax their grip on capital spending. But with the US-Iran war showing no signs of being brought to a conclusion any time soon and oil prices likely to remain higher for longer, that resolve may be tested more severely, and both companies are likely to face questions about their disciplined approach as well as future growth opportunities. "We find investors continue to seek defensive positioning in a volatile geopolitical environment, favouring strong balance sheets while looking for upside from refining tailwinds and international growth opportunities," Goldman Sachs managing director Neil Mehta says. Refining margins have surged this year on disruption linked to the Middle East war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. That has created a headache for US president Donald Trump as he looks to tame fuel costs ahead of the midterms on 3 November, and the top US majors could find themselves in his crosshairs again. Higher margins may have boosted ExxonMobil's July-September refining results by $4.5bn on the quarter, according to a preview earlier this month. That would only be partly offset by lower oil prices, which could depress results by $1.3bn. ExxonMobil's shares are likely to continue to benefit from the company's exposure to refining — much greater than its peers — as supply disruptions continue to shore up margins. ExxonMobil has guided for annual share buybacks of about $20bn in 2026, with spending at $27bn-29bn. "Investors raise questions around potential M&A [mergers and acquisitions], given competitive Permian technologies and a premium multiple, although volatile commodity prices remain a key challenge," Mehta says. Meanwhile, Chevron expects buybacks of $2.5bn-3bn in the third quarter, with full-year spending pegged at the lower end of an $18bn-19bn range. Other Permians Investors will be looking for updates on how much progress ExxonMobil is making in improving recovery rates from its Permian operations through a suite of new technologies under development. "It's half of ExxonMobil's global production and we're still in growth mode," head of global exploration John Ardill said in relation to the Permian at a London conference earlier this month. And there are more resources to be found elsewhere, with technology and scale playing a critical role. "There are more Permian basins out there," Ardill said, referencing an ExxonMobil deal in Azerbaijan involving a basin roughly the same size as the Permian's Delaware section, as well as gas work in Algeria. Chevron may need to convince investors that plans to invest $7bn in its Venezuelan joint ventures over the next five years will pay off. The company has laid out plans to double its Venezuelan output to around 600,000 b/d by the early part of the next decade. Analysts will also be looking out for details on how contract extension talks are going at Chevron's joint venture in Kazakhstan. Investors will also look for updates on plans by the US majors to help power data centres needed for the artificial intelligence boom. Earlier this year, Chevron signed a landmark 20-year deal with Microsoft for a west Texas data centre. Both ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to publish their third-quarter results on 30 October. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Moeve, Galp abandon downstream merger talks

26/10/26

Moeve, Galp abandon downstream merger talks

Madrid, 26 October (Argus) — Iberian energy companies Moeve and Galp have ended talks to combine their downstream businesses after failing to agree commercial terms. The companies "did not reach final terms that met their respective strategic and financial criteria to support an enduring and value-accretive partnership", Moeve said. The talks centred on creating two separate companies from parts of Moeve and Galp's downstream businesses. One would have combined their refining, chemicals, trading and low-carbon fuels operations, while the other would have brought together their customer-facing businesses, including their Iberian service station networks. "Following extensive discussions, it was not possible to reach a commercial agreement with Galp. We remain fully focused on executing our transformation with financial discipline and delivering sustainable long-term value," Moeve chief executive Maarten Wetselaar said. Galp said the proposed combination still had a compelling strategic rationale, but that the companies had been unable to achieve the commercial alignment needed for a lasting partnership. "Galp remains exceptionally well positioned, with one of the most attractive upstream growth profiles in the sector, strong industrial and commercial businesses, and a diversified portfolio encompassing renewable energy and significant trading activities," Galp chairperson Paula Amorim said. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Return of Venezuela's Machado fills streets

26/10/26

Return of Venezuela's Machado fills streets

Caracas, 25 October (Argus) — The return of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado filled the streets of the capital Caracas and other cities with supporters into Sunday evening, with peaceful marchers demanding speedy elections. "I'm here. With you all," Machado said in a social media post late on Sunday morning, confirming reports that she had returned after 10 months in exile, kicking off marches and rallies across Venezuela. Machado appeared at public events in cities in Venezuela's central region, including at a church mass service in Barquisimeto, throughout the day and crowds awaited her vehicle caravan in Caracas on Sunday night. The US has said that free and fair elections are the last stage of its three-phase approach to returning Venezuela to democracy after it seized former leader Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. But Machado — whom Maduro had blocked from running in a 2024 presidential election widely viewed as stolen — had not yet returned until now despite expressing a desire to do so. The US had a role in Machado's return, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said. "The conditions allowing for the safe return of Ms. Machado to Venezuela is the direct result of the US supported reconciliation talks," Rubio said on social media. Venezuela's acting national assembly and an opposition-controlled one that was the last the US regards as fairly elected recently completed a third round of reconciliation talks . US president Donald Trump said about Machado's return that she is a "very nice woman" and he hopes she is safe. Machado presented Trump earlier this year with her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize she won for her efforts in Venezuela. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections

26/10/26

Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections

Sao Paulo, 25 October (Argus) — Incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will serve as Brazil's president for another four-year term, after beating senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff. With nearly 100pc of votes counted, Lula led Bolsonaro with over 51.77pc of votes. Lula becomes the first in Brazil's history to win a presidential election after trailing in the first round of voting. He received 45.16pc of votes on 4 October, trailing Bolsonaro's 47pc. This will be Lula's fourth stint as Brazil's president. He first served two terms in 2003-2011. Lula's campaign focused on social media following his first-round defeat. Street demonstrations, especially in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro — Brazil's most populous cities — may have also given him a boost. The final televised debate, held on 23 October, may have also helped him swing votes. Fact-checking agencies showed him saying more truthful statements than Bolsonaro, which may have weakened his adversary's campaign. The second round of voting saw fewer absentee voters as well. Around 21pc of voters abstained in the first round, versus around 19pc in the second round. Around 3mn people additional people showed up to vote compared with the first round, and Lula obtained 10mn votes more than in the first round. Voting delays Voting booths stayed open two hours later than usual after both Lula and Bolsonaro's parties requested an extension. Lula's party claimed that problems in public transport denied voters the chance to vote. The federal police arrested Pablo Souza, the mobility secretary of Salvador — the capital of Bahia state, historically a left-leaning state — for reducing the amount of buses available on Sunday. Bolsonaro's party requested the extension in voting hours because of rains in Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul states. Flavio Bolsonaro's brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro — a former congressman who has been in the US since March 2025 and was convicted by the supreme court of coercion with the US to interfere in his father's trial — said before the elections that the candidate Bolsonaro would also head to the US if defeated in the elections. It is still unclear whether Flavio Bolsonaro will remain in Brazil or not. The candidate had yet to concede defeat as of 8:30pm ET. Backing Petrobras During his 2023-2026 term, Lula put state-controlled Petrobras at the center of his energy policy, seeking to broaden the firm's scope. He ended the company's import price parity principle — in a bid to control fuel prices — and his predecessor's policy of selling assets. He returned Petrobras to markets such as fertilizer production . He also spoke in favor of increasing oil and gas production, while also seeking to put it in the center of Brazil's energy transition. Deforestation also fell during his term , after Lula reversed policies of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro — Flavio's father, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn the result of the 2022 election. Bolsonaro would have likely sought to win amnesty for his father, but that is unlikely to take place now that Lula will remain as president. Lula will also be responsible for picking four or five supreme court judges in the next four years. One seat is vacant, three others will retire by 2030 and judge Alexandre de Moraes could face impeachment pressure from the right-leaning congress. Some of Lula's main campaign promises dealt with the economy, including maintaining the current fiscal framework while preserving room for public investment, expanding infrastructure spending, advancing the government's industrial policy and mobilizing investment for transitions to cleaner energy. Adversaries heavily criticized his fiscal framework, as Brazil's debt — including the federal, state and municipal governments — reached R11.1 trillion ($2.2 trillion) in August, up from R7.2 trillion at the end of 2022. Lula also promises to continue increasing the minimum wage, expand credit access for small- and medium-sized businesses, strengthen protections for app-based gig workers and pursue a more progressive tax system in which higher-income individuals contribute a larger share of taxes. But the heavily right-wing congress will probably be a hurdle for Lula to enact many of those promises. Lula's win puts Brazil as one of the sole countries in Latin America with a left-wing federal government, after Argentina, Peru, Chile, Colombia and others have elected right-wing presidents recently. Lula's relationship with the US and President Donald Trump were rocky at times , especially because of the tariffs imposed by the US president. Lula has been especially stern with the US' interest in Brazil's critical minerals. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

45Z complexity risk diluting US farmer benefits

23/10/26

45Z complexity risk diluting US farmer benefits

St Louis, 23 October (Argus) — The 45Z tax credit system for US biofuel feedstocks could struggle to return value to US farmers — with complex systems and long value-chains leaving a wide gap between producers and end-users — an outcome that could hinder bringing the program to scale. Originally intended to promote the usage of low-carbon feedstocks for biofuel production, the re-worked 45Z tax credit has widely been viewed by US agricultural groups as a tool to "create opportunities for farmers" said David Kubik, Biofuels and Trade Policy Manager with the Illinois Soybean Board. But complexities within the system — including the verification processes or how the US Department of Agriculture rates climate-smart agricultural practices — have introduced hurdles that US farmers have yet to work out. Setting expectations The potential for the 45Z tax credit to bid value back to crop producers has limitations shaped by feedstock type, supply chains, and geography. Understanding the "incremental value" generated by carbon-intensity (CI) reducing agricultural practices is key, according to Matt Herman, chief officer of Demand and Advocacy with the Iowa Soybean Association. "That's what the farmer and the value chain are going to be negotiating over." The tax credit — which increases incrementally with the CI reduction of the feedstock — caps out at $1/USG of biofuel production. For producers of renewable diesel and biodiesel, $0.60/USG is guaranteed if soybean oil is the feedstock. That leaves a potential of up to $0.40/USG of tax credit to be bid into incentivizing agricultural practices for US soybean producers. A credit that will also pass through the hands of soybean crushers — with soybean oil accounting for less than 20pc of a crushed soybean — before it can be factored into a farmer's profitability. For corn producers the advantage seems to be greater as the entire $1/USG credit for ethanol is aligned with the CI reduction of the feedstock. Regardless of the cap, the value returned to farmers will be further shaped by the accounting and compliance costs borne by the biofuel producers — the recipients of the credit — as well as any other part of the supply chain involved in moving the crop from the field to the end user. For farmers located away from biofuel end users, each additional supply chain link adds another layer of cost "taking away some of that potential farmer value", according to Adam Kiel, executive vice president with the Iowa Soybean Association. Rewarding the risk Time also creates a barrier between the potential value of 45Z for biofuel producers and the farmers who produce the crops. It could take "years from the time a farmer makes that decision to the time the credit value is returned back to the fuel producer even, let alone the farmer", said Keil. And farmers who adopt CI reducing agricultural practices incur those costs up front "probably a year before they harvest that crop," said Kiel. "Somebody's got to carry that cost", according to Herman. "There's a lot of opportunity here, but I think that there's a lot of area to improve". "I look at it as a subsidy for farmers who are already doing it" said Kubik. Those who have already adopted practices consistent with the CI reduction incentive will be the early beneficiaries. To balance or to book A possible solution to the barriers in returning value back to farmers would be to modify the method used to account for the CI reduction. Under the current regulation the CI reduction is accounted for and reported by the biofuel producer using a "Mass Balance" approach. Under mass balance accounting, documentation of the feedstock's production method follows it up the supply chain to the biofuel producer who uses it to prove the CI reduction of the feedstock and collect the tax credit. The alternative "Book and Claim" approach has the potential to simplify this. The proof of CI reduction would become decoupled from the feedstock as it enters the supply chain, and become a distinct product that biofuel producers can purchase to claim the tax credit. "Book and Claim is the preferred approach as it would allow more farmers to participate", said Sean Arians, Vice President with the National Corn Grows Association. But to adopt it would require multiple US agencies to agree that book and claim is an eligible accounting method, according to Arians. And additional safeguards and monitoring would have to be developed to ensure that the same bushel of feedstock is not sold multiple times to generate additional credits. And the book and claim approach could open the door to more farmers claiming the credit without modifying farming practices, particularly from producers who live in areas where CI reduction eligible practices, such as no-till, are a necessary part of agriculture production. But with time farm groups remain adamant that the 45Z system will benefit US producers. "The key for corn growers is to see a portion of 45Z make its way back to the farm, said Arians. "The ultimate goal of 45Z is to is to create opportunities for farmers", Kubik said. "And I do believe that farmers will be able to capitalize on those opportunities at the right time. It's just, kind of, working through the quirks." By Ryan Koory and Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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