Exit polls hint at Israel's Netanyahu staying in office

Spanish Market: Crude oil
27/10/26

An inconclusive parliamentary election in Israel is likely to keep prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in office in a caretaker capacity in the near future.

Netanyahu's Likud party appears to have won the most seats but the bloc of parties aligned with Likud is trailing the loosely-affiliated opposition alliance led by Yashar party's Gadi Eisenkot, according to exit polls by Israeli TV channels 11, 12 and 13. An exit poll by the I24 TV Channel has Netanyahu's bloc in the lead, but still unable to form a government on its own.

The election concluded at 10pm local (20:00 GMT) on Tuesday. A winning coalition would require at least 61 out of 120 seats in the Knesset to form a government, a threshold that neither alliance is close to achieving on its own. The parties representing Israel's Arab population may have won 17-18 seats, according to the exit polls.

Netanyahu's bloc has ruled out any electoral coalition with the Israeli Arab lawmakers. Eisenkot and his alliance have not been categorical in excluding such co-operation, but Israeli Arab parties have pushed for policy changes that even Netanyahu's opposition may refuse to accept.

On key security issues, "there is a strong Israeli consensus on a tough policy toward Iran, Lebanon, and Syria, and against the formation in the foreseeable future of a sovereign Palestinian state," according to former senior US diplomat Elliott Abrams, who now serves as a senior fellow at US think tank the Council on Foreign Relations.

The parliamentary election was the first since Israel came under attack on 7 October 2023 by Gaza-based Hamas militants and Israel's heavy-handed response that resulted in widespread destruction in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Netanyahu joined the US in attacking Iran first in 2025 and again in 2026 — a war that the US-Israel coalition has been unable to bring to conclusion.

President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, calling on the citizens of Israel to turn out in his support.

Iran and Israel have not exchanged direct strikes since June. The US has refrained from directly attacking Iran since early September. But Trump has said he may resume large-scale hostilities against Iran following the 3 November US midterm congressional elections.

By Haik Gugarats

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27/10/26

Fire reported near Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura complex

Dubai, 27 October (Argus) — A fire broke out near Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil export terminal early on Tuesday, a source with knowledge of the matter said. Yemen's Houthi rebels shortly afterwards claimed an attack on the nearby refinery. The fire has since been contained, the source said, although the extent of any damage remains unclear. State-controlled Saudi Aramco did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Houthis, meanwhile, said they had launched a ballistic missile at the 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed the strike caused "massive fires" at the site. The refinery is part of the wider Ras Tanura industrial complex, which also houses one of Saudi Arabia's main crude export terminals. The refinery has been targeted several times since the start of the US-Iran war in late February. Aramco shut the facility for more than three months after two Iranian attacks in early March. The latest incident comes as the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Yemen-based Houthis escalates. The group this month widened its targeting beyond military and energy facilities to include international airports and Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran. The Houthis over the weekend claimed attacks on several Saudi energy facilities, including the 400,000 b/d Petro Rabigh refinery and petrochemicals complex and crude pumping stations along the 7mn b/d East-West pipeline. The pipeline carries crude westwards to the Red Sea port of Yanbu for export. It also supplies refineries, power stations and desalination plants along the Red Sea coast. Neither Aramco nor the Saudi government has confirmed those claimed attacks. But Argus understands that at least one pumping station on the East-West pipeline was damaged over the weekend. The damage was limited and did not affect operations. An earlier attack on the pipeline system in early September forced Saudi Arabia to shut it temporarily. Aramco restarted flows within a week, with throughput recovering to 5.8mn b/d by early October. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

International fossil fuel finance down under Cop pledge

27/10/26

International fossil fuel finance down under Cop pledge

Edinburgh, 27 October (Argus) — International fossil fuel project finance from countries in the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) dropped by 72-80pc to $3.3bn last year compared with a 2019-21 baseline, but Italy, Germany and Switzerland are still not meeting the goal, according to a report by think-tank the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). Under the CETP, signed in 2021 on the sidelines of the UN Cop 26 climate summit in Glasgow, 40 countries and jurisdictions pledged to end international public finance for fossil fuels by the end of 2022. The signatories include Canada, Norway, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark. The US left the alliance in February 2025. The commitment covers public finance provided through development finance institutions, export credit agencies and multilateral development banks. "The CETP is an example of how international agreements with time-bound commitments, combined with ongoing monitoring and accountability efforts, can shift international energy finance away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy, although scaling clean energy financing has been slow," IISD said. But clean energy finance from the CETP countries in the same period only rose by 28pc to $5.6bn and only 42pc of the funding removed from fossil fuel investments has been going towards clean energy, according to IISD. Some countries have yet to meet their Cop 26 pledge. Italy has provided $6bn in international fossil fuel finance since the end of 2022, when countries were due to meet their CETP target, while Germany and Switzerland provided $2.5bn and $1.6bn, respectively. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Climate plans improve but off track for 1.5°C goal: UN

27/10/26

Climate plans improve but off track for 1.5°C goal: UN

Edinburgh, 27 October (Argus) — Countries' nationally determined contributions — climate plans — have improved in quality and scope, but progress in lowering emissions remains "substantially off track" to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C and keep a temporary overshoot short, according to a report from UN climate body the UNFCCC released today. The report took into account 127 new nationally determined contributions — climate plans — released between 1 January 2024 and 31 August 2026, representing 154 out of 194 parties to the Paris agreement. The 154 parties account for around 71pc of total greenhouse emissions, according to the report. The report does not include the US — the world's second-biggest emitter — since the country officially left the Paris accord last year. The UNFCCC found that GHG emission reductions — including land use, land-use change and forestry — stemming from the implementation of NDCs are projected to peak and decline by 2035, reaching 6pc below 2019 levels on average. The cuts would imply "best-estimate warming of 1.7-2.3°C by the end of the century", the report said, adding that "returning warming to 1.5°C would require substantial additional GHG emission reductions in the coming years". The NDCs "show improvement, compared with the previous NDCs, in the quality and depth of information provided, as well as broader thematic coverage", the UNFCCC said. The organisation found that energy transition is a common theme in the NDCs and that electrification plays "an increasingly important role in reducing emissions while strengthening energy security". "Against the backdrop of recent energy crises, almost two thirds of parties highlighted the contribution of mitigation measures to energy security, particularly through renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements," the report said. The report showed that 27pc of countries referred "to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner" as per the call made at Cop 28 in Dubai and that 10pc reported targets for cutting fossil fuel fired power generation by 2035, representing a 258TWh reduction. Around 6pc of the parties included fossil fuel phase-out targets, according to the report. The report found that parties in their NDCs increased their focus on creating enabling conditions for renewable energy deployment, efficiency improvements and electrification, with around 70pc reporting measures to improve electricity grids. It also showed that 92pc of the parties included methane in their NDCs and, of those, 29pc pointed to renewable energy generation as a key supply-side driver of energy security by replacing imported fuels with domestic energy sources. A total of 94pc of parties mentioned in their NDCs that they plan to use — or may use — voluntary co-operation under Article 6 of the Paris agreement and 81pc referred to the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes — when countries exchange emissions savings bilaterally to be counted towards their NDCs. The UN Cop 31 climate summit due to take place in Turkey next month "can help address some of the key gaps highlighted in this year's reports with its focus on practical measures to support greater implementation, UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Conservatives win majority in British Columbia

26/10/26

Conservatives win majority in British Columbia

Calgary, 26 October (Argus) — The Conservative Party of British Columbia (BC) will form a majority government in the Canadian province for the first time in nearly a century, with the promise of more energy development on the horizon. Lorne Doerkson of the Conservatives will be the next premier after leading his party to 63 of 93 seats in a general election on 24 October. The New Democratic Party (NDP) will be relegated to the official opposition with 28 seats while the BC Green party secured two seats, according to unofficial results from Elections BC. The Conservatives were last in power from 1928-1933. The win also ends a decade-long reign by the NDP. The change in government follows an ill-fated snap election gamble by the now-outgoing premier and NDP leader David Eby, who already held a narrow majority. The next scheduled election was not to happen until 2028, but Eby sought to capitalize on a Conservative party fraught with internal disorder and a new leader that was relatively unknown. Doerkson's Conservatives want to "supercharge" BC's economy, by doubling its natural gas production by 2032 and tripling it by 2035. LNG development and condensate production are also central to the plan. While LNG development unfolded under the NDP's leadership, Eby has been a vocal opponent of shipping Canadian crude from northern BC, which culminated in a deal with prime minister Mark Carney to keep a federal tanker ban intact . The Conservative Party of Canada on Monday said it is pushing to have the oil tanker moratorium removed through Bill C-264, which is heading for a second reading in the House of Commons in Ottawa, Ontario, on 28 October. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Galp open to mergers after failure with Moeve: Update

26/10/26

Galp open to mergers after failure with Moeve: Update

Adds comments from Galp Madrid, 26 October (Argus) — Portugal's integrated Galp continues to believe in splitting its industrial and customer-focused businesses and seeking a partner for each after failing to agree commercial terms of a potential merger of its downstream business with that of Spain-based Moeve. Galp's own industrial business, which is focused around its 226,000 b/d Sines refinery, together with the 100MW renewable hydrogen electrolyser and 270,000 t/yr advanced hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant due to open by early 2027, is an "investment case", according to Galp co-chief executive Joao Diogo Marques da Silva. Despite the "compelling strategic rational" for a segregation of the two businesses, size dictates that this should be with the assets of a qualified partner to increase scale and not through a spin-off or separate listing for the business. "It doesn't make too much sense for us not to have a partnership on the downstream, considering not only the scale, complementary competitiveness, but also the consolidation," according to Marques da Silva, who ruled out retaining 100pc of its industrial business in any potential future downstream partnership. Galp and Moeve said earlier today that they have broken off talks to merge their industrial businesses, including refining, chemicals, trading and low-carbon fuels into a company controlled by Moeve and combining both firms' customer businesses into a retail company with equal ownership after 10 months of negotiations . "Following extensive discussions, it was not possible to reach a commercial agreement with Galp. We remain fully focused on executing our transformation with financial discipline and delivering sustainable long-term value," Moeve chief executive Maarten Wetselaar said. "Galp remains exceptionally well positioned, with one of the most attractive upstream growth profiles in the sector, strong industrial and commercial businesses, and a diversified portfolio encompassing renewable energy and significant trading activities," Galp chairperson Paula Amorim said. "No deal is better than a bad deal," Marques da Silva said, adding that Galp feels "no pressure whatsoever" to rush into a tie-up in downstream and has "confidence in the standalone value" of its business. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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