US Group II base oils premiums slip again

Spanish Market: Oil products
02/11/26

US Group II base oil premiums to feedstocks and competing fuels declined again during the week ended 30 October because base oil prices were steady to lower while four-week average low-sulphur vacuum gasoil and diesel prices increased.

US Group II base oil spot prices were mostly steady last week, excluding the N600 grade which fell on surplus volumes.

Many refiners are facing growing pressure to clear excess inventories of base oils because of the upcoming end of year tax assessment season. Few blenders are reporting small discounts, if any, at this time.

The Argus US Group II N100 premium to four-week average low-sulphur VGO was $3.64/USG, down from $3.72/USG in the prior week, the second straight weekly decline. Still, margins remained above the year-earlier premium of $1.31/USG.

Four-week average low-sulphur VGO prices were supported by higher crude values and fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) margins remain strong even after a small decline. FCC margins represent gasoline and diesel markets demand.

The four-week average low-sulphur VGO to four-week average WTI crude spread widened to $25.91/bl from $25.84/bl in the previous week.

The Argus US Group II N100 premium to four-week average US Gulf coast diesel fell to $1.84/USG, down from $1.87/USG in the previous week. Margins remained above the year-earlier premium of 80¢/USG.

Four-week average US Gulf coast diesel prices rose on elevated crude values and a persistent global shortage of diesel.

By Karly Lamm

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03/11/26

Brazil presents global fossil fuel, forest roadmaps

Edinburgh, 3 November (Argus) — Brazil's UN Cop 30 presidency today presented two international roadmaps intended to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and halt deforestation, offering practical pathways for countries with different starting points. The roadmaps propose short-term measures that countries could implement to accelerate action through to 2033, with key UN Cop climate summits serving as milestones. The presidency pledged during last year's summit in Belem to develop the roadmaps after countries failed to agree on the two issues. It reiterated today that the roadmaps will not be negotiated at Cop 31 in Antalya this year, but said the "political space for a frank conversation... should stay open". The fossil fuel roadmap draws on 267 contributions, including 21 submissions representing 115 parties to the Paris climate agreement. It breaks the transition into a series of actionable steps, beginning with a voluntary self-assessment tool through which countries can evaluate their "unique circumstances, structural conditions, exposure to fossil fuel dependence and transition capacity". The assessment would examine countries' exposure to fossil fuels and their ability to manage the transition across three themes — energy demand, energy supply and the broader economy. The aim is to help countries identify their respective profiles and existing strengths, the presidency said. The second step focuses on implementation, offering possible actions for countries with similar demand and supply profiles. Countries can begin acting regardless of their starting point, although the transition will require careful co-ordination, the presidency said. "Economies with high exposure and limited capacity have most to gain from avoiding new lock-in and stranded assets as their demand for energy services grows," the roadmap report said. "Economies with strong capacity have the means to move first." The presidency proposes advancing the roadmap through a "Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels" agenda organised around three milestones linked to future global stocktakes (GSTs), which assess progress towards the goals of the 2015 Paris accord. Efforts should focus on institutions and long-term policy signals until 2028, when the second GST begins, the presidency said. The focus would shift towards transforming energy systems in 2028-30, when the collective goals agreed at Cop 28 are due and countries submit their next climate plans. The presidency recommends shifting greater attention to the supply side and scaling up solutions in 2031-33, alongside the third GST. Asked how Brazil intends to link the roadmap to the informal action agenda, a parallel process conducted alongside formal Cop negotiations, Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni told Argus that the work began under that agenda last year. The presidency will release another report at Cop 31 detailing progress under the action agenda, she said. One role of the roadmap is to ensure countries do not lose sight of the Cop 28 consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels and to highlight elements already in place to advance that commitment, Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said. The roadmap also serves as an initial contribution to the next GST process, he said. The Cop 30 presidency also released a roadmap for stepping up efforts to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030. It identifies areas for action under national strategies — including conservation, sustainable forest management, agroforestry and the bioeconomy, as well as measures to combat deforestation and forest degradation. The presidency identified finance as one of the largest implementation gaps, as most tropical forests are in developing countries. Domestic public budgets accounted for 88.3pc of recorded forest finance in 2023, while international public finance provided only 3.4pc, it said. The forest roadmap sets out international actions and indicative milestones through to 2030. By Caroline Varin and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

QatarEnergy offers first fob gasoil tender since war

03/11/26

QatarEnergy offers first fob gasoil tender since war

Singapore, 3 November (Argus) — State-owned refiner QatarEnergy (QE) has issued what is likely its first public offer of spot gasoil export cargo since the US-Iran war started. The state-owned refiner is offering up to 54,000t (434,000 bl) of gasoil supply through a tender closing on 3 November. Market participants will receive the supplies from one of two options. Under the first option, QatarEnergy is offering 14,000t of high-sulphur gasoil (HSGO) for loading from Ras Laffan on 22-23 November, alongside a 40,000t cargo of Oryx gas-to-liquids (GTL) diesel for loading on 28-29 November. The second option comprises 14,000t of HSGO and 25,000t of Oryx GTL diesel, with the two grades available for co-loading on 22-23 November and 23-24 November, respectively. The HSGO has a maximum sulphur content of 2,400ppm. QatarEnergy was last seen in the spot market before the outbreak of the US-Iran war, when it offered a 40,000t cargo of GTL diesel for loading from Ras Laffan on 17-18 March. The cargo is unlikely to have transited the strait of Hormuz following the escalation of the conflict in late February. Gasoil exports from Ras Laffan remained at minimal levels over March-June, ship-tracking data from Vortexa show. Oil flows through the strait of Hormuz have declined lately given heightened Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the region. Combined crude and refined product flows through the waterway averaged around 10.3mn b/d, comprising 8.5mn b/d of crude and 1.8mn b/d of refined products, in October preliminary Vortexa data show. This was down by about 13pc from September, when total flows reached 11.85mn b/d. Flows remain well below pre-war levels, which averaged around 14.5mn b/d of crude and 4.75mn b/d of refined products during the first quarter of the year, Vortexa data show. Market participants are likely to monitor premiums for this tender closely, which could provide a clearer indication of sentiment in the Mideast Gulf gasoil market. Higher security risks and elevated freight costs may weigh on achievable premiums, but firm gasoil fundamentals and the onset of peak winter demand in Europe could continue to support buying interest, market participants said. QatarEnergy has earlier resumed public tenders for naphtha and 95R gasoline exports since late June, Argus records show. The naphtha cargoes were done at a double to triple digit discount to the Mideast Gulf spot naphtha assessments. The discount reflected elevated risk and freight costs associated with lifting cargoes on a fob basis from within the strait of Hormuz. By Lu Yawen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hormuz oil flows down on the month

02/11/26

Hormuz oil flows down on the month

New York, 2 November (Argus) — Oil flows through the strait of Hormuz fell in October from the month prior amid heightened attacks from Iran against commercial traffic in the region, but flows remained up from August. Combined crude oil and refined product flows through the strait of Hormuz stood at around 10.3mn b/d, split between 8.5mn b/d of crude and 1.8mn b/d of refined products, according to preliminary Vortexa data. This is down by 13.2pc from September when combined exports reached 11.85mn b/d, but up by 28pc from August. Flows through the strait remain below their pre-war average of around 14.5mn b/d of crude and around 4.75mn b/d of refined products in the first three months of the year, per Vortexa data. Attacks by Iranian forces against tankers have failed to deter some shipowners and national fleets from operating in the area, with the risks for some outweighed by record-high freight rates for tankers exiting the strait of Hormuz. The cost to ship crude from the Mideast Gulf to Asia through the strait of Hormuz on a very large crude carrier stood at $37.30/bl on Monday, the highest level since Argus began assessing the route in 2016 and over four times higher than its pre-Iran war high. Iranian forces attacked over 30 vessels around the Mideast Gulf, strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman in October, the highest level since the conflict broke out at the end of February following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The UK Maritime Trade Organization reported three attacks taking place between the strait of Hormuz and the Mideast Gulf on 1 November alone. Increased attacks from Iran against shipping in the area precede a period of anticipated military escalation between the US and Iran after the US' 3 November midterm elections . By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US plants run hard, margins triple

02/11/26

US plants run hard, margins triple

Houston, 2 November (Argus) — US independent refiners ran refineries at near capacity and margins tripled in the third quarter, as they reaped the benefits from war-related supply disruptions. Refinery crack spreads have eased in recent weeks, but refiners expect the respite to be temporary as high global freight rates exacerbate steep heavy crude discounts, pressuring crude prices relative to products. Some of the downward pressure on margins is really related to headlines around strategic reserve releases and easing sanctions on Russia, among others, Valero chief operating officer Gary Simmons says, but he suggests that supply remains tight. "When you digest the data and you look at how much volume is actually coming out, and then lifting of sanctions is more just a change in trade flows, I think we'll see a recovery in cracks moving forward," he says. Phillips 66 expects high refining margins to continue for most of next year on lingering global supply shortages as well as higher freight rates, executive vice-president of marketing and commercial Brian Mandell says. Freight rates should be stronger in the fourth quarter than in the third, with the very large crude carrier market tight and some products vessels being used for crude, he says. At the same time, US gasoline demand has declined by about 2.5pc and diesel demand by about 1.5pc, but this is not enough to balance the market, Mandell says. High global freight rates combined with more Venezuelan crude reaching the US Gulf coast market are weighing on Canadian heavy sour grade WCS. Canadian output is also outpacing the capacity of pipelines to carry it to market, further pressuring heavy crude prices, US independent refiner HF Sinclair says. Current WCS discounts of $25-30/bl to the WTI benchmark should eventually moderate while remaining wider than average "at least through 2027", HF Sinclair chief operating officer Steven Ledbetter says. Phillips 66 ran its refineries at 98pc of capacity in the third quarter, with distillate yields at 41pc, a record quarterly high. The refiner plans to keep runs high in the mid-90pc range across its system in the fourth quarter. Phillips 66 reported refining margins of $38/bl in the third quarter, more than three times higher than a year earlier. Valero also ran at near-record rates in the third quarter and its margins nearly tripled on the year to $39.24/bl. Light and shade Valero does not plan to restart its idled 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery in California despite new White House plans for recently closed facilities to reopen, the company says. The refinery has been idled since April and there are no plans for it to resume operations, Valero general counsel Rich Walsh says. "It's just a tough environment to operate in the west coast and we don't see the potential for that," Walsh says. But Valero has agreed to buy an idled refinery in Houston, Texas, from LyondellBasell and restart production by the end of 2027. The US administration is looking for opportunities to help reopen and expand refineries in an effort to reduce diesel and gasoline prices. But any refinery restart would take a while, making it "very difficult for them to help the prompt situation", Valero chief executive Lane Riggs says. The idea "that you can just sort of walk in and flip the lights" and a refinery starts running is not exactly the case, he says. Refiners are also sceptical that Russian diesel will help ease prices in the near term. Trump on 9 October said he had reached a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin for some exports of Russian diesel to resume to the US and global markets. "We don't think that Russia has enough distillate to make much of a difference," Mandell says. By Eunice Bridges USGC 3:2:1 crack spreads Canadian WCS crude Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Adnoc CEO warns energy supply buffers have ‘eroded’

02/11/26

Adnoc CEO warns energy supply buffers have ‘eroded’

Abu Dhabi, 2 November (Argus) — The chief executive of Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc, Sultan al-Jaber, warned today that the world's energy supply buffers have been all but "eroded" as governments have been forced to draw on their strategic stocks to compensate for the loss of supplies from the Mideast Gulf region. Speaking at the opening of the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi, al-Jaber called on the world to learn from the lessons of the current crisis, which has seen shipments through the critically important strait of Hormuz disrupted for more than eight months. "Since the strait of Hormuz was disrupted, nearly 1bn barrels [of oil] have been drained from global inventories," al-Jaber said. "In some markets, stocks of diesel are at their lowest seasonal level in 35 years, and others are facing a 600bn ft³ LNG supply gap." Shipments through the strait have recovered somewhat since the early days of the US-Iran war, with the latest Kpler data putting flows of crude and condensate at 8.45mn b/d in October, close to 60pc of what was going through in February, just before the war began. But the availability of supply is only half the story, al-Jaber said, highlighting the steep jump in the cost of moving this oil and energy from the Mideast Gulf to consumers. "Before the disruption, shipping and logistics were less than 5pc of the cost of a barrel. Today, they are more than 30pc," al-Jaber said. "Energy security is not only measured at the point of production. It is now also measured at the point of delivery." Global energy systems need to focus more on making energy "accessible," al-Jaber said, highlighting the need for expanded strategic storage, larger stockpiles of products and more refining capacity that is located closer to consumer markets. He also stressed the importance of having more ways of getting energy to market. "Supply only counts when it arrives," al-Jaber said. "Infrastructure must be built before it is needed and enabled by advanced logistics." The UAE was one of just two Mideast Gulf countries, along with Saudi Arabia, that had oil export infrastructure capable of bypassing the Hormuz strait when the war began, putting it in a far better position than most to navigate this period. The latest data shows that the UAE has not only recovered its production from the early days of the Hormuz crisis, but recently lifted it to above pre-war levels. Argus estimated UAE production at around 3.9mn b/d in September, up from 3.53mn b/d in February, before the war started, and as low as 1.9mn b/d in March, the first month of the crisis. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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