UAE says oil exports back around pre-war levels

Spanish Market: Condensate, Crude oil
03/11/26

UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said the country's oil exports have recovered strongly from disruption in the early months of the US-Iran war, at times exceeding pre-conflict levels.

US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February prompted Tehran to target shipping through the strait of Hormuz, through which around 20mn b/d of crude, condensate and refined products had been passing.

The disruption initially forced several key Mideast Gulf producers, including the UAE, to sharply reduce oil shipments through the strait and cut crude production.

UAE crude and condensate exports fell to just below 2mn b/d in March from close to 3.3mn b/d in February, according to Kpler. Abu Dhabi cut shipments through the strait of Hormuz by 80pc and rerouted some crude through the Adcop pipeline for export from Fujairah, which lies outside the strait.

Regional tensions persist and Iran continues to target vessels in and around the strait. But shipping through Hormuz has risen steadily in recent months, partly because of logistical support from the US military.

"I don't want to give a number, but at certain times, we have been [higher] than prior to [the war]," al-Mazrouei said. "Sometimes, we have even filled in the gap that others were not able to supply."

Crude and condensate exports tracked by Kpler support the broader recovery described by al-Mazrouei. UAE shipments rose to 3.6mn b/d in June and reached 3.36mn b/d in September, before edging down to 3.31mn b/d in October.

The export recovery has been accompanied by a rebound in UAE crude production, which has recently exceeded pre-war levels. Argus estimated production at around 3.9mn b/d in September, up from 3.53mn b/d in February and a low of 1.9mn b/d in March, the first month of the conflict.

Al-Mazrouei attributed the recovery to resilience built through years of forward planning.

"Spare capacity is resilience, and having optionality is part of being resilient," he said, referring to the Adcop pipeline, which allowed the UAE to continue exporting significant volumes of crude while shipments through Hormuz were constrained.

Adnoc is several years into construction of a second cross-country link, known as the West-East pipeline, which will also carry crude to Fujairah for export. Adnoc has said the pipeline will become operational next year, while market participants told Argus it is likely to be ready by the second quarter.

"The infrastructure we built paid off in no time," al-Mazrouei said. "The whole investment paid off after using it for a few months."

The biggest lesson from the conflict is that "you need to be ready", he said.

By Nader Itayim

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

02/11/26

Lula may lean more on Petrobras in fourth term

Sao Paulo, 2 November (Argus) — Incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's surprising win in Brazil's presidential election is likely to mean a steady course for the country's hydrocarbons agenda and the strategy of state-controlled Petrobras. But with a recently elected right-wing majority in congress likely to push back against most of his policies, the president may rely more heavily on Petrobras and its profits to support his wider agenda. Lula beat senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the presidential election run-off after trailing the challenger in the first round. His fourth term in office — he also served two in 2003-11 — is expected to be one of continuity for the oil and natural gas sector. The government is likely to focus on increasing crude production for export and pursuing lower domestic gas prices by increasing competition and production. Brazil's crude output has been rising steadily through Lula's third term, reaching consecutive records. August production reached almost 4.6mn b/d, up from 3.8mn b/d in the same month in 2025, hydrocarbons regulator ANP says. The country expects to increase oil production to 4.9mn b/d by 2030, according to energy research firm EPE's latest projections. It is still driving output from its prolific pre-salt fields, but it will also keep looking at other exploration frontiers such as the southern Pelotas basin and the equatorial margin. Lula has been a strong advocate of increasing production in the pre-salt and the new frontiers. Production was also likely to keep growing under Bolsonaro or any other candidate. Crude surpassed soy as Brazil's largest export product for the first time in 2024. But Bolsonaro's and Lula's plan for the energy sector diverged mostly in their approach to state-controlled Petrobras. During his election campaign, Lula spoke of Petrobras re-entering the fuel distribution market, which it exited after it sold its stake in BR Distribuidora in 2021, during the presidency of Flavio's father Jair Bolsonaro. Lula's last administration also halted Petrobras' divestment programme, but stopped short of repurchasing sold-off refineries or returning to fuel distribution. The Lula government has framed state involvement in fuel distribution as a price-control mechanism in the face of rising consumer prices. But Petrobras' business plan is focused on upstream investment, and fiscal pressures may leave the government little room to manoeuvre on downstream pricing. "I don't see much scope for very heterodox policies in the oil and gas sector," said Edmar Almeida, a professor at the PUC-Rio university's Institute of Energy. Vote of confidence Foreign oil companies gathered at a conference in Rio de Janeiro before the elections pointed to Brazil as an increasingly attractive investment in deepwater pre-salt fields and new offshore exploration frontiers. Lula's shock re-election does not change this, particularly given ongoing risks and challenges to business in Russia, the Middle East and Venezuela, Almeida said. Petrobras is also likely to continue expanding its biofuels business under chief executive Magda Chambriard, including a planned return to ethanol after exiting the sector in 2017. While Chambriard has stressed the importance of fossil fuels, her management has embraced Lula's view that oil and gas revenues can finance Petrobras' energy transition and investment in lower-carbon businesses. Keeping Chambriard at the helm would maintain a degree of management stability for Petrobras that it lacked in 2018-24, which is likely to be welcomed by investors. A clearer indication of whether the firm's priorities will change in Lula's new term is likely to come with Petrobras' next five-year business plan, due to be unveiled in November. By Constance Malleret and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oil services firms see momentum building into 2027

02/11/26

Oil services firms see momentum building into 2027

New York, 2 November (Argus) — Growth prospects for the top oil field services providers are improving heading into 2027, driven by international expansion in offshore developments, renewed exploration and efforts to boost production from existing assets. Deepwater projects remain a bright spot with activity broadening across Latin America, Africa, the eastern Mediterranean and Asia, and final investment decisions expected to increase by more than 30pc in 2026, according to the world's biggest oil field services contractor SLB. A growing number of US shale producers that are gearing up for international expansion will also prove a catalyst for growth. Venezuela is now open for business and companies are racing to partner with oil and gas producers to help revive the nation's energy industry following the US capture of former president Nicolas Maduro earlier this year. While the pace of the recovery in the Middle East remains uncertain given the ongoing conflict, the region is also shaping up to be a significant driver of growth once activity returns to normal. SLB forecasts that global oil field services market activity will expand in the mid-single digit range next year. That outlook assumes that Middle East activity holds steady in the second half of 2026 and that there is no escalation in the US-Iran conflict. But any resolution to the war could help unlock deferred demand and serve as a "powerful catalyst" for further growth in 2027, SLB says. "We see a very compelling outlook for 2027, with further upside as Middle East activity recovers," chief executive Olivier Le Peuch says. Halliburton also remains upbeat on oil services demand following the supply shock caused by the war in the Middle East. "We are another three months into one of the largest energy disruptions in history," chief executive Jeff Miller says. "The work to restore production, rebuild inventories and strengthen energy security will drive multi-year demand growth for oil field services." Halliburton expects mid-single digit revenue growth for 2027, as well as operating margins of about 15pc, up by two percentage points from this year. "This outlook assumes a flat North America market and does not require any recovery in North America hydraulic fracturing," Miller adds. "To us, that recovery is purely upside." Baker Hughes expects upstream spending to pick up going into 2027 after remaining flat this year. Supply disruptions across key producing regions have tightened inventories and boosted commodity prices, reinforcing the need for further investment in energy production and infrastructure. "While the need for longer-term investment remains clear, customers continue to take a disciplined approach to near-term spending," chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli says. Back in business The re-opening of Venezuela's energy market has also sparked interest from the sector, with firms scrambling to secure contracts. SLB expects its revenue from the South American country to more than double this year. The firm says that over time it will be able to reach or even surpass the $1bn in sales that Venezuela used to be worth for SLB. "We're well prepared, we're adding resource, adding equipment," Le Peuch says. Halliburton says it is "open for business" in Venezuela, where it is already fielding multiple enquiries from potential customers. "The work that we started with has been primarily [well] interventions," chief operating officer Shannon Slocum says, but the company sees "solid growth" ahead. Baker Hughes has recently signed two strategic agreements in Venezuela. And Weatherford International says it is "furiously" taking on new staff in the country, supported by greater visibility with regard to contracting work. "We see potential for Venezuela to ramp up in 2027 to triple-digit revenues, with further increases in 2028," chief executive Girish Saligram says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Adnoc CEO warns energy supply buffers have ‘eroded’

02/11/26

Adnoc CEO warns energy supply buffers have ‘eroded’

Abu Dhabi, 2 November (Argus) — The chief executive of Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc, Sultan al-Jaber, warned today that the world's energy supply buffers have been all but "eroded" as governments have been forced to draw on their strategic stocks to compensate for the loss of supplies from the Mideast Gulf region. Speaking at the opening of the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi, al-Jaber called on the world to learn from the lessons of the current crisis, which has seen shipments through the critically important strait of Hormuz disrupted for more than eight months. "Since the strait of Hormuz was disrupted, nearly 1bn barrels [of oil] have been drained from global inventories," al-Jaber said. "In some markets, stocks of diesel are at their lowest seasonal level in 35 years, and others are facing a 600bn ft³ LNG supply gap." Shipments through the strait have recovered somewhat since the early days of the US-Iran war, with the latest Kpler data putting flows of crude and condensate at 8.45mn b/d in October, close to 60pc of what was going through in February, just before the war began. But the availability of supply is only half the story, al-Jaber said, highlighting the steep jump in the cost of moving this oil and energy from the Mideast Gulf to consumers. "Before the disruption, shipping and logistics were less than 5pc of the cost of a barrel. Today, they are more than 30pc," al-Jaber said. "Energy security is not only measured at the point of production. It is now also measured at the point of delivery." Global energy systems need to focus more on making energy "accessible," al-Jaber said, highlighting the need for expanded strategic storage, larger stockpiles of products and more refining capacity that is located closer to consumer markets. He also stressed the importance of having more ways of getting energy to market. "Supply only counts when it arrives," al-Jaber said. "Infrastructure must be built before it is needed and enabled by advanced logistics." The UAE was one of just two Mideast Gulf countries, along with Saudi Arabia, that had oil export infrastructure capable of bypassing the Hormuz strait when the war began, putting it in a far better position than most to navigate this period. The latest data shows that the UAE has not only recovered its production from the early days of the Hormuz crisis, but recently lifted it to above pre-war levels. Argus estimated UAE production at around 3.9mn b/d in September, up from 3.53mn b/d in February, before the war started, and as low as 1.9mn b/d in March, the first month of the crisis. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ to keep output targets unchanged in December

01/11/26

Opec+ to keep output targets unchanged in December

Dubai, 1 November (Argus) — A core group of seven Opec+ producers have again chosen to keep their crude production quotas unchanged, as the US-Iran war continues to disrupt supplies from several members. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman said after their monthly virtual meeting on Sunday that they would roll over their November quotas into December. The seven last updated their output targets in September, when they finished unwinding a set of large production cuts. The Mideast Gulf members of the wider alliance have boosted production in recent months by shuttling more crude through the strait of Hormuz, but their ability to sustain this is largely tied to the course of the Iran war and the conflict in Yemen, from where the Houthi militants continue to attack Saudi Arabia, including its civilian and energy infrastructure. Opec+ production by members with targets rose by 2.47mn on the month in September but remained 4.21mn b/d below their collective target and 3.16mn b/d below the pre-war level in February, Argus estimates. Iran's production in September was around 1.55mn b/d below its pre-war February level, driven by the US naval blockade of its exports. US president Donald Trump has indicated there may be a resumption of direct strikes against Iran following the US midterm elections on 3 November. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said a renewed attack would be met with an "immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response." Front month Ice Brent crude futures closed at $117.64/bl on 30 October, the highest since late April, while refined product prices remain at elevated levels. The seven Opec+ producers set their next meeting for 29 November. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US awards 17mn bl of crude from SPR

30/10/26

US awards 17mn bl of crude from SPR

Houston, 30 October (Argus) — The US Department of Energy (DOE) awarded 17mn bl of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) on 28 October as part of the emergency drawdown sanctioned in March by President Donald Trump. Gunvor USA, Trafigura Trading, and Vitol were each awarded over 4mn bl of crude through the program. Macquarie Commodities Trading US received about 1.7mn bl and Phillips 66 about 1.4mn bl. Last month, the DOE offered to loan up to 40mn bl of sour crude from the SPR's Bryan Mound and Big Hill storage sites in Texas, with delivery scheduled for November and December. The offer was made in an effort to lower oil prices that surged with the start of the US-Iran war. But demand for SPR crude was lower than anticipated, with only about 25mn bl SPR crude being awarded, likely due to the high freight costs for shipping crude out of the US Gulf coast, and global refiners shifting focus to more competitively priced alternatives. The 17mn bl of crude was first offered on 16 October , using the remaining volume that was not awarded in the first 40mn bl sour crude tranche. Under the loan agreement, companies will have to return the amount of the crude they borrowed in 2028-29, including an additional 12.5-19.5pc of the borrowed volume as payment for the loan. By Benedetta Tommaselli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more