Adaptation too slow as world set to breach 1.5°C: Unep

Spanish Market: Emissions
04/11/26

Global adaptation, or adjusting to the effects of climate change where possible, is not moving quickly enough as the world is set to breach a key climate target in the next few years, a report from the UN Environment Programme (Unep) found today.

The Paris climate agreement seeks to curb the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. But an overshoot of the 1.5°C target is "inevitable", Unep said in September, as mitigation — action to cut emissions — has not been sufficient.

"Limiting the magnitude and duration of overshoot through rapid and ambitious mitigation, while managing its consequences through accelerated adaptation, is therefore increasingly urgent", Unep said today.

"The world is not ready to adapt to current climactic conditions, never mind what overshoot of 1.5°C will bring", Unep executive director Inger Andersen said.

Finance, particularly for developing countries to adapt, is inadequate, the report found. International public adaptation finance flows from developed to developing countries was between $28.2bn and $31.7bn in 2024, depending on estimates from Unep and the OECD, respectively. Growth in adaptation finance flows from developed to developing nations is flattening, but support between developing countries is increasing, the report noted. It also flagged that multilateral development banks are likely to have increased their financing significantly in 2025, although this may be offset by a drop in official development assistance from many countries.

Adaptation finance is far below the estimated requirement of $305bn/yr by 2035, Unep said. It reached this estimate by assessing countries' climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris agreement — and national adaptation plans (NAPs), and by modelling.

Countries at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November 2025 called for efforts to at least treble adaptation finance by 2035. The baseline was unclear, but depending whether this is based on current finance flows or an earlier pact, adaptation finance could reach $85bn-120bn annually, Unep said. This adjusted for inflation would meet only between 20-29pc of adaptation finance needs in 2035, the report found.

The world has already warmed by 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels. Much of Europe experienced extreme heat earlier this year, affecting transport, power supply and agriculture.

By Georgia Gratton

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03/11/26

New York election unlikely to boost climate plans

Houston, 3 November (Argus) — New York governor Kathy Hochul (D) appears poised to win another term in Tuesday's election, but persisting concerns over rising energy prices and affordability are likely to keep any ambitious climate policy goals, such as a statewide cap-and-invest program, in the backseat. Hochul is on track to defeat her opponent, Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman (R), and Democrats are likely to retain control of the state legislature. The latest poll of just over 800 likely voters from the Siena Research Institute shows 54pc support for the governor compared with just 40pc for Blakeman. When Hochul first took office in 2021, she presided over the implementation of the state's landmark 2019 climate law, which set ambitious goals for the state. Her administration took steps to lessen New York's use of natural gas, promote clean energy and develop a state-specific, economy-wide cap-and-invest program to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But Hochul's policy calculus has changed significantly since. Rising electricity demand as a result of growing data center capacity, federal cuts to clean energy incentives, a slew of tariffs as well as the federal administration's relentless attacks on offshore wind have raised concerns over the feasibility of enacting more aggressive policies. Hochul's administration delayed the rollout of the cap-and-invest program, leading to a lawsuit from environmental groups. A state court sided with the groups last year and required the release of carbon market regulations by February this year. But during budget negotiations with lawmakers earlier this year, Hochul expressed doubts about New York's ability to meet its climate goals, citing higher costs and a hostile federal administration. Those negotiations culminated in a deal that delayed the state's interim emissions goal and made moot the lower court order by pushing back the release of carbon market regulations to 2028. New York also requires utilities to use resources such as wind and solar for 70pc of their retail sales by 2030. But state estimates suggest the target may not be achieved until 2036 at the earliest. For his part, Blakeman has blamed Hochul for high energy costs and has promised to "unleash" the state's fossil fuel reserves. But if Blakeman wins, he will likely have to contend with a Democratic legislature. Hot ‘n cold Even continued Democratic control of the legislature is likely to do little to ensure a return to past climate plans. "There's so much emphasis on affordability that I don't anticipate that [Hochul] is going to double down on climate targets per se for New York state," said Carolyn Kissane, founding director of the SPS Global Energy, Climate and Sustainability Lab at New York University. New York is also battling President Donald Trump. A federal court recently sided with the federal administration and struck down the state's climate "superfund" law, which had sought to impose fees on oil, natural gas and coal companies for the climate-related costs from their GHG emissions. The state is appealing the ruling. In addition, stronger electricity demand has contributed to higher costs. That, along with the volatility in global energy markets resulting from the US-Iran war, has made it more difficult to decarbonize. "Whether it's solar or wind or batteries, some of that is just going to go to meeting that new demand rather than displacing any carbon intensive energy sources," said Noah Kaufman, senior research scholar at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy. New York has long had some of the highest electricity prices in the country, in part because of the state's limited natural gas infrastructure, according to Kaufman. Hochul has reversed her reluctance to promote natural gas in light of grid reliability concerns . The governor revived a natural gas pipeline last year and embraced an "all-of-the-above" approach for energy during her campaign this year. Hochul will likely "take a more pragmatic" approach moving forward, according to Kissane. "She'll try to protect the clean energy, new generation that is coming on line, such as the offshore wind, and at the same time, recognize that she really can't pull back on natural gas," she said. Hochul has promoted new solar and battery storage , and funneled $2bn towards climate and energy efficiency programs over the last two years. In addition, she was the first governor to issue a one-year moratorium on data center development. Still, Hochul will have to continue to balance affordability and policy goals during her next term. It remains to be seen whether "there is appetite for some sort of compromise" to support more infrastructure in the near term and gradually phase out natural gas to enable the state to meet its emissions goals, Kaufman said. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil presents global fossil fuel, forest roadmaps

03/11/26

Brazil presents global fossil fuel, forest roadmaps

Edinburgh, 3 November (Argus) — Brazil's UN Cop 30 presidency today presented two international roadmaps intended to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and halt deforestation, offering practical pathways for countries with different starting points. The roadmaps propose short-term measures that countries could implement to accelerate action through to 2033, with key UN Cop climate summits serving as milestones. The presidency pledged during last year's summit in Belem to develop the roadmaps after countries failed to agree on the two issues. It reiterated today that the roadmaps will not be negotiated at Cop 31 in Antalya this year, but said the "political space for a frank conversation... should stay open". The fossil fuel roadmap draws on 267 contributions, including 21 submissions representing 115 parties to the Paris climate agreement. It breaks the transition into a series of actionable steps, beginning with a voluntary self-assessment tool through which countries can evaluate their "unique circumstances, structural conditions, exposure to fossil fuel dependence and transition capacity". The assessment would examine countries' exposure to fossil fuels and their ability to manage the transition across three themes — energy demand, energy supply and the broader economy. The aim is to help countries identify their respective profiles and existing strengths, the presidency said. The second step focuses on implementation, offering possible actions for countries with similar demand and supply profiles. Countries can begin acting regardless of their starting point, although the transition will require careful co-ordination, the presidency said. "Economies with high exposure and limited capacity have most to gain from avoiding new lock-in and stranded assets as their demand for energy services grows," the roadmap report said. "Economies with strong capacity have the means to move first." The presidency proposes advancing the roadmap through a "Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels" agenda organised around three milestones linked to future global stocktakes (GSTs), which assess progress towards the goals of the 2015 Paris accord. Efforts should focus on institutions and long-term policy signals until 2028, when the second GST begins, the presidency said. The focus would shift towards transforming energy systems in 2028-30, when the collective goals agreed at Cop 28 are due and countries submit their next climate plans. The presidency recommends shifting greater attention to the supply side and scaling up solutions in 2031-33, alongside the third GST. Asked how Brazil intends to link the roadmap to the informal action agenda, a parallel process conducted alongside formal Cop negotiations, Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni told Argus that the work began under that agenda last year. The presidency will release another report at Cop 31 detailing progress under the action agenda, she said. One role of the roadmap is to ensure countries do not lose sight of the Cop 28 consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels and to highlight elements already in place to advance that commitment, Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said. The roadmap also serves as an initial contribution to the next GST process, he said. The Cop 30 presidency also released a roadmap for stepping up efforts to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030. It identifies areas for action under national strategies — including conservation, sustainable forest management, agroforestry and the bioeconomy, as well as measures to combat deforestation and forest degradation. The presidency identified finance as one of the largest implementation gaps, as most tropical forests are in developing countries. Domestic public budgets accounted for 88.3pc of recorded forest finance in 2023, while international public finance provided only 3.4pc, it said. The forest roadmap sets out international actions and indicative milestones through to 2030. By Caroline Varin and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Climate resilience races up countries’ agendas

30/10/26

Climate resilience races up countries’ agendas

The need for adaptation has gained significance for developed countries, giving the topic more traction, writes Georgia Gratton London, 30 October (Argus) — Climate resilience, and adapting to growing weather extremes, has taken on further significance in light of record-breaking heatwaves and ongoing disruption from one of the strongest El Nino events the world has experienced. El Nino effects are set to continue into 2027, while the UN has warned that the world will almost inevitably overshoot the Paris agreement goal to limit a global rise in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This firmly places climate resilience in the spotlight, just ahead of the UN Cop 31 climate summit, set for 9-20 November in Antalya, Turkey. Cop summits typically focus on mitigation — cutting emissions — and adaptation, meaning adjusting where possible to the effects of climate change. Adaptation can play second fiddle in Cop outcomes, and is often framed as an issue for the most vulnerable countries, such as low-lying, small island developing nations. But the need for adaptation has risen up developed countries' agendas, possibly opening the door for the topic to gain greater traction in formal negotiations. Adaptation discussions at the halfway-point of technical climate talks in Bonn, Germany, in June stalled, as countries could not reach an agreement, including on finance for adaptation. Proposals for work on the global adaptation goal "sparked strong disagreement", according to think-tank IISD's Earth Negotiations Bulletin. Adaptation-related items were pushed through for further discussions at Cop 31. A note from UN climate officials this week reiterated that "adaptation will remain a central priority", including discussions on financial support for developing countries. The officials encouraged "pragmatic engagement". Developing countries have submitted 81 national adaptation plans in recent years, while developed nations are working to improve policies. The EU this week released a climate resilience framework, asking its member states to prepare for a 3°C rise in temperature above pre-industrial levels by 2100. "Almost no part of our continent was spared from damaging climate extremes" this summer, the European Commission said this week. European power systems were particularly affected , as a lack of rainfall constrained hydropower, while low river levels shut nuclear plants and prevented deliveries of oil products and coal. The UK is legally required to produce adaptation plans. It should prepare for "intensifying heat, growing flood risk, rising drought and wildfire risk", the country's independent advisory Climate Change Committee said this year. It warned that the UK energy system is at risk from flooding, high winds, heat and drought. Economic costs growing Outside Cops, countries will be looking to avoid the financial implications of failing to adapt. Even wealthy countries will be reluctant to add to a fiscal burden by stepping in to guarantee or insure property where the private sector will not. "The economic case for action is compelling. Material losses from weather and climate-related events are rising sharply," the commission said. Annual economic losses from climate extremes in the EU are at around €50bn ($56bn), but the 2026 heatwaves cost an estimated €113bn across 30 countries, it said. Developing countries are submitting requests to the loss and damage fund that they agreed at Cop 27 to set up to aid the most vulnerable countries in dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The fund's board said that 119 countries have submitted requests totalling $2.8bn, although decisions are not expected until after Cop 31, and the fund currently only holds around $820mn. Governments have linked climate resilience and adaptation to a broader quest for security and sovereignty. Climate resilience must "become a defining feature of Europe's competitiveness, security and prosperity", the commission said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Major emitters at near-peak GHG emissions: Report

30/10/26

Major emitters at near-peak GHG emissions: Report

Berlin, 30 October (Argus) — Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the world's major emitters are at or near their peak, research published this week suggests. German non-profit NewClimate institute, the Dutch government-affiliated environmental assessment agency PBL, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) analysed aggregate emissions across 26 countries, which cover around 80pc of 2024 global GHG emissions. Calculations carried out by the researchers suggest the midpoint of the projection range peaked at 40.2bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2025, before declining slightly to 40bn t/CO2e in 2026. If the projections' upper range is taken, then their GHG emissions will peak this year, at 40.6bn t/CO2e. The researchers point out that progress remains uneven across countries, with half of the surveyed countries projected to see their emissions decrease or stabilise, while the other half is expected to see a continuing increase. The report is based on policy scenarios combining energy and industrial emission projections under current legislated climate policies with land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions projections. The report's projections suggest that by 2030, aggregated emissions for the 26 countries will range between 37.6bn and 40.2bn t/CO2e. In comparison, the 26 countries together emitted 39bn t/CO2e in 2019. Among the 19 countries that have submitted climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDC) — for 2035 under the Paris Agreement, the report flags 11 countries that are "off track" and "need to adopt or strengthen policies". Countries on track to meet their targets include Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Turkey and Vietnam. These countries should use the opportunity to further strengthen their NDC ambition, the NewClimate institute urged. Countries that are off track include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Japan, Nigeria, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the UK. These countries need to adopt additional policies or substantially strengthen existing ones to close their national implementation gap, the institute said. International support will be key to help countries with "conditional" NDC targets, such as Ethiopia, Mexico and Nigeria, the report said. Conditional targets are those which will require international support to be met. Compared with the report's 2025 iteration, the researchers have raised their emissions projections for 2035. China and India in particular, are expected to emit more than was assessed by the researchers last year. While China boasts strong renewable energy deployment and efficiency improvements, its continued industrial energy demand and a slower decline in coal use is projected to keep emissions higher. In India, the researchers flagged the country's high reliance on coal, and growing emissions in the energy and industry sectors. Conversely, the researchers are more optimistic than they were a year ago regarding emissions developments in the EU, the US, Mexico and Vietnam. The researchers say it is yet too early to include the impact of the war in Iran in their modelling. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU delivered €32.3bn in public climate finance in 2025

29/10/26

EU delivered €32.3bn in public climate finance in 2025

London, 29 October (Argus) — The EU contributed €32.2bn ($35.9bn) in public climate finance to developing nations in 2025, up by 1.8pc on the year, the European Council said today. The bloc mobilised a further €9.3bn in private finance in 2025, down by 15.5pc on the year. The public climate finance included €4.3bn from the EU budget, and €2.7bn from the European Investment Bank, which is owned by EU member states. Of the public finance, 48pc was for adaptation — adjusting to the effects of climate change where possible — or to action involving adaptation and mitigation, or cutting emissions. Grant-based finance made up 41pc of the contribution, the EU said. Many countries have called for climate finance to be made available either as grants or at concessional rates — finance at below market rate — to avoid increasing the debt burden on developing nations. Separately, the UN Green Climate Fund (GCF) this week approved $1.97bn in new climate finance, taking its 2026 approvals to $3.3bn. The projects it approved at this week's meeting include industrial decarbonisation and climate-resilient agriculture. The GCF operates under the financial mechanism of UN climate body the UNFCCC, and is mandated to invest half of its resources in mitigation and half in adaptation. It is the world's largest climate fund. Finance, to support action to tackle climate change or enable countries' energy transitions, is typically a central theme at UN Cop climate summits. Developed countries agreed to deliver $100bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations in 2020-25 — a goal they reached for the first time in 2022 . Almost 200 countries agreed at Cop 29 in 2024 on the next iteration of this target — that developed countries would deliver $300bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations by 2035. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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