Sulfur market to remain tight in 2027: Cavvy

Spanish Market: Fertilizers
06/11/26

Canadian energy company and sulfur producer Cavvy Energy expects the Mideast Gulf war to continue to squeeze global sulfur supply, keeping markets firm in 2027.

Uncertainty transit through the war-torn strait of Hormuz will constrain sulfur supply for at least the first half of 2027, Cavvy said on Friday.

Although Vancouver, British Columbia, sulfur prices have fallen since peaking at $1,100-1,200/metric tonne (t) fob in June, according to Argus data, Cavvy expects elevated prices to persist.

Prices above $1,000/t fob are unsustainable and will lead to demand destruction from fertilizer producers as well as metals industries, Cavvy said. But it expects fertilizer producers to begin increasing production for the spring application season in the northern hemisphere and return to the spot market for first quarter deliveries as prices fall. The re-emergence of demand from the fertilizer industry could stabilize prices at elevated levels.

The Argus Vancouver fob price on Thursday was assessed at $770-780/t, down by $375/t on a midpoint basis from the June peak.

Cavvy produced 753 t/d of sulfur during the third quarter, down by 33pc from the same period a year earlier. The reduction stemmed from a scheduled turnaround at the company's Caroline, Alberta, gas plant and a 33-day unplanned turnaround at its Waterton, Alberta, facility.

During the Waterton maintenance, Cavvy said it repaired a low-pressure process vessel critical to sulfur recovery efficiency, reducing production.

The company expects this year to produce 1,000-1,100 t/d of sulfur, unchanged from its second quarter guidance. Sulfur output in 2025 averaged 1,078 t/d.

Cavvy reported an $8.67mn profit in the third quarter, reversing a $10.1mn loss the same period a year earlier.

By Chris Mullins

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11/11/26

CF Industries seeks EU ammonia default value change

Houston, 10 November (Argus) — Nitrogen producer CF Industries has urged the US Trade Representative (USTR) to press the EU to revise its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) ammonia default value for the US, arguing that it is inaccurate and is putting US nitrogen producers at a disadvantage in the EU. In response to a USTR call for public comments on CBAM, CF says the EU should lower the US ammonia default value and make the corresponding changes to downstream nitrogen fertilizers. The company also wants clearer rules allowing US producers to use verified emissions data rather than rely on EU default values. "CBAM should recognize the lower carbon intensity of US ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production and strengthen, not undermine the case for investment in US ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing," CF said. If the EU does not change the default value, CF requested the USTR evaluate taking other trade actions against the EU, but emphasized the importance of avoiding tariffs on equipment that could be used to repair or modernize US ammonia and nitrogen plants. CF argues that the higher default value has created "unfair and material barriers" to US exports. The company said some customers favor suppliers from countries with lower default values even though actual emissions may be higher than US exports because carbon intensities are not verified until the calendar year after the import happened. Meanwhile, other importers are seeking better terms or guarantees from US producers because of uncertainty over final CBAM liabilities and potential verification failures. Trade data so far has lined up with CF's comment. US exports of UAN to the EU have fallen dramatically over the last year following the implementation of CBAM at the start of 2026, according to the US Census Bureau. US exports of liquid fertilizer urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) from January through September of 2026 totaled only 42,000t, representing an 88pc decline from average exports over the prior three years. US ammonia exports, on the other hand, lag the three-year average by 16pc over the same period, totaling about 202,000t. The EU CBAM default value for the US is 3.41t CO2-equivalent/metric tonnes(t) of ammonia, which is the third-highest country default value for ammonia. CF highlighted that the US ammonia production has total embedded emissions of 2.14t CO2-equivalent/t, which is around 37pc below the EU's default value, based on a production-weighted analysis of US government data. This figure does not reflect CF's carbon caputre and storage project at its Donalsonville, Louisiana, complex, which launched in July 2025 and has the capacity to capture up to 2mn t/yr of CO2. The US producer also said the EU's approach to calculating carbon intensity does not follow common accounting practices and that measuring emissions from a single complex rather than by a production unit basis disincentivizes capital investment to reduce carbon emissions. CF is also concerned because the EU does not address the use of enhanced oil recovery alongside carbon capture in its methodology, a process currently being used by CF's Donaldsonville plant. By Sneha Kumar and Calder Jett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

K+S revenues rise on strong specialty ferts earnings

10/11/26

K+S revenues rise on strong specialty ferts earnings

London, 10 November (Argus) — Germany-based potash producer K+S posted higher revenues in the third quarter, as higher prices and stronger specialty fertilizer sales offset lower MOP sales. Agricultural revenues reached €642mn, up by 4pc from €615.3mn a year earlier. Within this sector, revenues from specialty fertilizers rose by 14pc on the year to almost €308mn, whereas MOP revenues fell by 3pc to about €334mn. Overall agricultural sales excluding trade goods fell by 7pc on the year to 1.61mn t. Sales of speciality fertilizers rose by 8pc to 780,000t while MOP sales fell by 7pc to 990,000t. The figures reflect its strategy of focusing on high-value products including a drive to boost sales of its Korn-Kali fertilizer in the international market. Korn-Kali is a specialty potassium and magnesium fertilizer product containing 38pc K₂O, 6pc MgO and 12pc SO3. Sales were also affected by maintenance at its Bethune mine in Canada during the quarter. The average price in its agricultural sector for the quarter rose by 6pc on the year to €363.30/t. Average specialty fertilizer and MOP prices increased by 5pc to €395.10/t and €338.30/t, respectively. Overseas revenues increased by 17pc on the year to €461.6mn, while sales rose by 8pc to 1.12mn t. This offset lower European sales, where revenues fell by 13pc to €240.8mn and volumes dropped by 17pc to 640,000t. Earnings, sales outlook K+S narrowed its 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) forecast to €700mn-750mn from €680mn-760mn previously. The company kept its agricultural sales forecast at 7.4mn-7.6mn t for 2026. By Julia Campbell and Arib Dauhoo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Another Saudi urea cargo leaves Mideast Gulf

10/11/26

Another Saudi urea cargo leaves Mideast Gulf

London, 10 November (Argus) — A vessel probably carrying urea from Saudi Arabia cleared the strait of Hormuz to emerge from the Mideast Gulf today, Kpler data show. The Lucie B is carrying around 31,000t of urea, which it will deliver to Myanmar. It is the fifth vessel carrying non-Iranian urea to clear the strait of Hormuz this month, following the Captain J Mohammed, which emerged from the Mideast Gulf on 5 November. Around five vessels carrying about 306,000t of non-Iranian urea are in the Mideast Gulf, Argus estimates. By Louise Hossien Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opportunistic Saudi ammonia exports to continue: Maaden

09/11/26

Opportunistic Saudi ammonia exports to continue: Maaden

London, 9 November (Argus) — Saudi Arabian fertilizer producer Maaden aims to continue opportunistic ammonia exports where possible, but a full resumption of ammonia production and exports will only be possible when clear shipping lines return. Maaden idled its two export-oriented 1.1mn t/yr ammonia units at Ras al-Khair in early March after the war in the Middle East effectively closed the strait of Hormuz, through which all Saudi ammonia is exported. Maaden's third 1.1mn t/yr ammonia unit has continued producing throughout the war for captive use in the firm's downstream phosphate production. Excluding a brief opening of the strait in June following a now defunct US-Iran peace deal, all non-Iranian ammonia exports from inside the Mideast Gulf had come to a halt. But fertilizer and related raw material shipments through the key waterway have increased recently compared with earlier in the conflict. Maaden has now exported several ammonia vessels, chief executive Bob Wilt said in a third-quarter earnings call. "Whether that will continue depends on the situation," Wilt said. The producer has exported over 70,000t since the start of October in three shipments, all of it to India. Another 25,500t shipment appears to have loaded this month, vessel tracking data show. The exports are "inventory management" and Maaden does not expect to ramp up ammonia production further until export routes through Hormuz are clear. Maaden has removed any ammonia production guidance for the 2026 financial year. Traversing the strait remains highly risky, with a gas carrier most recently struck in the region at the end of October, according to the FT , shortly after the vessel's addition to Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) list of non-compliant vessels. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported 11 attacks on vessels in the week ended 4 November , including eight in the strait itself and three inside the Mideast Gulf. Of those attacks, three vessels continued their voyages, three sank and five required assistance. The vessel that Maaden has been using for its exports was also last week added to the PGSA's non-compliant vessel list. Nonetheless, Maaden will keep an "optimistic eye for increased ammonia sales moving forward", Wilt said. Maaden's ammonia production increased to 380,000t in the third quarter from 267,000t in the second quarter, suggesting higher run rates at the operating ammonia unit. The increase was largely driven by an increase in phosphate production, Maaden said. By Lizzy Lancaster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran increases Hormuz attacks, commercial threats

06/11/26

Iran increases Hormuz attacks, commercial threats

New York, 6 November (Argus) — Iran is increasing pressure on shipping out of the Mideast Gulf by escalating the physical, and potentially financial, risks associated with transiting the strait of Hormuz, with deadly consequences. At least two seafarers died in the strait of Hormuz this week, with the International Maritime Organization confirming a crew fatality following the 4 November attack on the Velos Sapphire tanker. This attack occurred two days after an Indian national died following a strike on a small cargo ship off the coast of Oman. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has progressively expanded its list of vessels it says do not comply with transit rules it imposed since the US and Israel attacked it in February, and warned last week it would take action against all vessels linked to South Korea shipping firm Sinokor. The PGSA did not specify in its latest notice what action would be taken against the vessels, but the authority has previously said ships on its non-compliance list could face restrictions on future passages through the strait of Hormuz, including fines, detention or confiscation. Iran is attempting to increase the perceived commercial risk associated with the PGSA non-compliance list by expanding it, but the practical risk of attack remains tied to strait of Hormuz transit activity, maritime intelligence firm Ambrey said in an assessment on Friday. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported 11 attacks in the week ended 4 November, split between eight in the strait of Hormuz and three inside the Mideast Gulf. Of those attacks, three vessels continued their voyages, three vessels sank and the remaining five ships all required assistance. There is no direct relationship between Iranian attacks and being on the PGSA's list, with fewer than 15pc of vessels struck by Iran having been designated by the PGSA prior to getting attacked, Ambrey said. Record tanker earnings have enticed a growing number of transits through the strait of Hormuz despite the fatal risks associated with such trips. An increase in vessel transits, especially through the southern US-assisted lane, has in turn given Iran a growing number of targets to hit. The southern lane remains the most targeted, accounting for 63 out of 88 projectile strikes reported to the UKMTO since July. Preliminary data shows oil flows through the strait of Hormuz fell in October from the month prior amid increased attacks from Iran, but flows remained up from August levels. By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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