Opec keeps oil demand outlook unchanged

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
11/11/26

Opec has kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged after a series of downgrades this year, while making a further marginal cut to its outlook for Chinese consumption.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, Opec forecasts global demand will grow by 180,000 b/d to 105.72mn b/d in 2026 and by 2.55mn b/d to 108.28mn b/d in 2027, both in line with its October assessment.

Opec's 2026 demand growth projection is a fraction of the 1.4mn b/d it was forecasting before the US-Iran war began. Its outlook continues to assume that this year's weak growth will give way to a sharp rebound in 2027.

The group now expects Chinese oil demand to fall by 70,000 b/d to 16.81mn b/d in 2026, a slightly steeper decline than it forecast last month. It continues to project a 470,000 b/d rebound in 2027.

Chinese consumption fell by 110,000 b/d on the year to 17.25mn b/d in September, as lower diesel and gasoline use outweighed stronger demand for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel, Opec said.

Opec also kept its non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecasts unchanged at 640,000 b/d for 2026 and 620,000 b/d for 2027. Output is forecast to average 54.84mn b/d this year and 55.45mn b/d next year.

Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina are expected to lead growth this year, partly offset by an 860,000 b/d decline in Qatar. Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina are forecast to be the main sources of growth in 2027.

US liquids supply growth is forecast to slow from 500,000 b/d this year to just 30,000 b/d in 2027. Opec expects US crude and condensate production to fall by 110,000 b/d next year, but this is forecast to be more than offset by a 140,000 b/d increase in natural gas liquids output.

Opec does not forecast Opec+ crude production, but publishes an average of estimates from secondary sources, including Argus. This shows Opec+ crude output, including Mexico and the UAE, rose by 2.04mn b/d on the month to 41.23mn b/d in October, driven largely by increases from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

The UAE withdrew from Opec and Opec+ on 1 May this year, while Mexico is not bound by an Opec+ production quota.

Opec also pointed to a sharp decline in global oil inventories, which it estimates fell by 537mn bl from a February peak to 8.043bn bl at the end of September. Non-OECD inventories accounted for 294mn bl of the decline and OECD strategic reserves for 218mn bl.

By James Keates

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10/11/26

US doubles down on vow not to resume Iran war: Update

Updates with House vote Washington, 10 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has stepped up assurances that it has no plans to resume military hostilities with Iran, a message that appeared to be at least partly aimed at staving off an attempt in Congress to impeach defense secretary Pete Hegseth. "There's really no need for major combat operations any longer, because the blockade and the economic sanctions are doing devastation to" Iran's economy, secretary of state Marco Rubio told reporters in Paris on Tuesday, where he was attending a G7 foreign ministerial. Rubio was echoing comments Trump made on Monday, when the president noted: "We don't think there's going to be any reason to use" military force against Iran. Trump has given such assurances before, only to then order strikes against Iran. Conversely, Trump has also repeatedly threatened to step up attacks against Iran, only to then pursue a diplomatic course. But the sudden switch to ruling out military force, after weeks of threatening to use it, reflects concerns voiced by many Republicans — including Trump himself — that the war was a key cause of their party's rout at the polls last week. Representative Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), a vocal critic of Trump and Hegseth, on Monday filed a resolution calling for impeaching Hegseth on eight counts. But the Republican-led House of Representatives voted 211-204 on Tuesday to refer the resolution to the Judiciary Committee, effectively putting an end to the impeachment effort in the lame duck session. Massie's justifications for impeaching Hegseth included waging a war against Iran and Yemen without legal justification; for "kidnapping" former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife; for carrying out "extrajudicial killings" against suspected drug traffickers; and for threatening to retaliate against senator Mark Kelly (D-Arizona), a former Navy captain, for calling on the US military personnel to refuse to execute unlawful orders. No other Republican joined Massie in voting to push forward with impeachment. But Democratic lawmakers have indicated they will try again to impeach Hegseth when they take control of Congress in January. "The Democrats' attempt to impeach Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has miserably FAILED," Trump said in a social media post, attributing the result to "Victories in Venezuela and Iran" and a "Spirit like rarely seen before." Hegseth, in a news briefing before the House vote on Tuesday, called Massie's accusations "political disagreements" and defended the conduct of the war in Iran. The military operations cited in the impeachment resolution were "lawfully ordered by the commander-in-chief, then ordered by myself," Hegseth said. "History will judge the Iran war quite differently than conventional wisdom right now." Hegseth pushed back on vice president JD Vance's argument that "the reason we lost (the election) is the war". The war with Iran was "a necessary undertaking", Hegseth said. Trump, during an 8 November appearance on CBS' 60 Minutes, said he did not disagree with Vance's statement. But Trump added, "The one thing (Vance) left out is, if you had it to do again, would you do it?". Trump said that he did not regret going to war with Iran. "That war has been won. Now they're withering away as a country, and they'll come and they'll make a deal." But Iranian officials insist that the US must implement the commitments Trump agreed to in a June "memorandum of understanding" before negotiators can address other issues. The US appears to be prioritizing Iran's nuclear program in diplomacy with Tehran. Iran's supreme national security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei, in a social media post on Monday, said the US "should surrender to the seven conditions Iran has repeatedly set out". Rezaei described reported US-Iranian talks as "imaginary". Iran "is demanding reparations," Rubio said on Tuesday. "They're demanding pallets of cash, which the president has made clear is not going to happen." Trump in June agreed to the repatriation of Iran's frozen assets in foreign banks, estimated to be at least $24bn. The US-Iran interim deal that spelled out other concessions to Tehran fell apart after less than a month. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US doubles down on vow not to resume Iran war

10/11/26

US doubles down on vow not to resume Iran war

Washington, 10 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has stepped up assurances that it has no plans to resume military hostilities with Iran, a message that appears to be at least partly aimed at staving off an attempt in Congress to impeach defense secretary Pete Hegseth. "There's really no need for major combat operations any longer, because the blockade and the economic sanctions are doing devastation to" Iran's economy, secretary of state Marco Rubio told reporters in Paris on Tuesday, where he was attending a G7 foreign ministerial. Rubio was echoing comments Trump made on Monday, when the president noted: "We don't think there's going to be any reason to use" military force against Iran. Trump has given such assurances before, only to then order strikes against Iran. Conversely, Trump has also repeatedly threatened to step up attacks against Iran, only to then pursue a diplomatic course. But the sudden switch to ruling out military force, after weeks of threatening to use it, reflects concerns voiced by many Republicans — including Trump himself — that the war was a key cause of their party's rout at the polls last week. The Republican-led House of Representatives is poised on Tuesday to vote on whether to begin impeachment proceedings against Hegseth. Representative Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), a vocal critic of Trump and Hegseth, on Monday filed a resolution calling for impeaching Hegseth on eight counts. Those justifications include waging a war against Iran and Yemen without legal justification; for "kidnapping" former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife; for carrying out "extrajudicial killings" against suspected drug traffickers; and for threatening to retaliate against senator Mark Kelly (D-Arizona), a former Navy captain, for calling on the US military personnel to refuse to execute unlawful orders. If approved, the impeachment resolution would establish that the war against Iran "was unlawful from its inception", Massie said. The Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House. The House Democratic leadership has vowed to support the impeachment effort. But so far only one other Republican, Don Bacon (R-Nebraska), has said he would consider voting in favor of impeaching Hegseth. Massie, ahead of initiating the impeachment effort, argued that Trump should fire Hegseth and pick a replacement who can be confirmed by the outgoing, Republican-controlled Senate. The Democrats will have at least 54 members in the 100-member Senate after January and have promised greater scrutiny of Trump's executive nominations. But Trump has called on Congress to block the impeachment, insisting Hegseth should be praised for "TWO VICTORIES, Venezuela and Iran". Hegseth, in a news briefing on Tuesday, called Massie's accusations "political disagreements" and defended the conduct of the war in Iran. The military operations cited in the impeachment resolution were "lawfully ordered by the commander-in-chief, then ordered by myself," Hegseth said. "History will judge the Iran war quite differently than conventional wisdom right now." Hegseth pushed back on vice president JD Vance's argument that "the reason we lost (the election) is the war". The war with Iran was "a necessary undertaking", Hegseth said. Trump, during an 8 November appearance on CBS' 60 Minutes, said he did not disagree with Vance's statement. But Trump added, "The one thing (Vance) left out is, if you had it to do again, would you do it?". Trump said that he did not regret going to war with Iran. "That war has been won. Now they're withering away as a country, and they'll come and they'll make a deal." But Iranian officials insist that the US must implement the commitments Trump agreed to in a June "memorandum of understanding" before negotiators can address other issues. The US appears to be prioritizing Iran's nuclear program in diplomacy with Tehran. Iran's supreme national security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei, in a social media post on Monday, said the US "should surrender to the seven conditions Iran has repeatedly set out". Rezaei described reported US-Iranian talks as "imaginary". Iran "is demanding reparations," Rubio said on Tuesday. "They're demanding pallets of cash, which the president has made clear is not going to happen." Trump in June agreed to the repatriation of Iran's frozen assets in foreign banks, estimated to be at least $24bn. The US-Iran interim deal that spelled out other concessions to Tehran fell apart after less than a month. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Fossil fuel shift talks come back to finance

10/11/26

Cop: Fossil fuel shift talks come back to finance

Antalya, 10 November (Argus) — Fossil fuel phase-out discussions on the sidelines of official UN Cop 31 climate talks saw a strong emphasis on countries' own approaches to the transition, but developing nations reiterated it cannot happen without increased funding. "Every country's transition is different," UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte said on Tuesday. And the strong acknowledgement at Cop 31 of different national circumstances and starting points was well received by some nations, after last year's disagreement at Cop 30 in Belem on the topic . A series of side events on transitioning away from fossil fuels complemented the official presentation of the Cop 30 presidency's international fossil fuel roadmap today. The pledge of a roadmap was a key outcome of Cop 30 last year, although it was not one agreed on by consensus and sat outside the summit's official text. The Brazilian Cop 30 presidency last week presented a blueprint intended to offer practical routes for countries to move away from fossil fuels. Nigeria's national council of climate change director general Omotenioye Majekodunmi welcomed the roadmap "particularly in its recognition that while our collective destination is shared, our national starting point and pathways will differ". Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said the roadmap "struck a positive chord" because "there is nothing prescriptive" about it. Almost 200 countries were called on in 2023 at Cop 28 to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, and progress in Cop discussions on the topic has largely stalled since. But the developing countries taking part in the discussions today stressed the importance of finance when it comes to the energy transition. Developing nations need support to shift from fossil fuel-based energy and the highest-emitting countries must take action to phase out fossil fuels, a representative of the least developed countries (LDCs) said. The LDCs are a negotiating bloc at Cop summits. The transition must take place "within the parameters of energy security" and "reduced fiscal space", Kyte said, speaking at an event about phasing out coal, the most polluting fossil fuel. Irawan Asaad, director of resource mobilisation for climate change at the Indonesian environment ministry echoed Kyte's comments. "Indonesia needs to have an energy transition not only for growth but also for energy security and decarbonisation," he said. But "you cannot suddenly change the entire energy sector in Indonesia", he said. Infrastructure is the largest challenge for the country, he added, but the second one is finance to support the energy transition. Indonesia is the world's third largest coal producer, according to the IEA. "Homegrown coal is attractive from an energy security point of view", compared to buying expensive gas from overseas, Kyte added. "Powering past coal is still the right goal … but we have to be flexible in how we help countries manage", she said. Parties to the Paris agreement were also called on to accelerated efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power at Cop 28. Revenue dependencies And for some producers, heavy dependence on fossil fuel revenue means the transition needs to be carefully managed. "We depend heavily, up to 80pc or more on revenue from crude oil, and that's what funds our development objectives and plans," Nigeria foreign minister Sola Enikanolaiye said today. "It's not something we can immediately jettison in a transition plan," he said. The real test for Nigeria will be mobilising investment and converting transition pathways into investable opportunities, Majekodunmi said. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres called for fossil fuel importing countries to "reduce their exposure", and producing countries to "diversify their economies and prepare for changing revenues, industries and jobs". "Taxing fossil fuel windfalls can help pay for all this", he said. "Fossil fuels are not only driving the climate crisis. Dependence on them carries a steep economic and security price — as the crisis in the Middle East has laid bare." Former US climate envoy John Kerry warned that a central Cop 31 goal, to raise electricity's share of final energy demand worldwide to 35pc by 2035 is "not going to solve our problem" if the electricity is fossil-fuelled. Cop 30 last year also spurred a "coalition of the willing" — countries that wanted to accelerate the move away from fossil fuels — which culminated in a conference in Colombia in April, co-hosted by the Netherlands. The Dutch government said today that the country would commit €6mn ($6.7mn) to a fund to assist countries with developing pathways to transition from fossil fuels. The German government has also committed to funding for transitioning away from fossil fuels, electrification, renewables, energy efficiency and grids and storage. By Georgia Gratton, Caroline Varin and Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Libya pledges GHG reductions in first NDC

10/11/26

Cop: Libya pledges GHG reductions in first NDC

Berlin, 10 November (Argus) — Libya's internationally recognised Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) has pledged to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15pc in 2035 compared with 2023, conditional on international finance. The country submitted its first climate plan under the Paris climate agreement — or nationally determined contribution (NDC) — to UN climate arm the UNFCCC. It covers the 2026-35 period. Without international finance, Libya expects its GHG emissions to rise by 20pc over the period, still an improvement on the almost 35pc increase expected under a business-as-usual scenario, the GNU said. Libya expects most of the GHG reductions to stem from gas flaring recovery, which will capture and use natural gas currently wasted during oil production, reducing emissions while increasing energy supply, the GNU said. Gas flaring recovery projects are expected to avoid around 90mn t CO2e and save 40mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of natural gas for domestic use or export in 2026–35. Emissions cuts in power generation are also expected to contribute significantly. Political instability since Libya's 2011 civil war explains the late submission of its first NDC, and also leads to challenging financing conditions, the GNU said. Libya emitted 97.3mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2023, with the energy sector — including not just oil, gas and power production but also transport — the biggest emitter by far, accounting for 88pc. The country pointed to its substantial crude reserves, saying that the exploitation of oil and gas is an opportunity for investment and development. But it is also working to diversify its economy to protect itself from oil prices fluctuations and contribute to the energy transition and cut its exposure to environmental vulnerabilities, the GNU said. Implementing Libya's emissions reduction measures will require an estimated $29.6bn over 2026–35, of which domestic finance accounts for 31pc, according to the NDC. The energy sector will require the lion's share, at $28bn. But while the largest overall contribution to the cuts will come from gas flaring recovery, at 36pc, this is estimated to need just $1.9 bn, or 6.3pc, of the total finance. This compares with the power sector, which will contribute 26pc to emissions cuts but is expected to need $14.6bn, around half the total finance. The transport sector will need $8.8 bn, or almost 30pc of the total. Funds will support fleet modernisation, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, electrification and public transport. The GNU also pointed to state-owned National Oil Corporation's (NOC's) engagement in international initiatives such as the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0), and related tools including the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS). The GNU has been assessing the viability of replacing diesel with gas for power generation. The switch to natural gas in the country's power sector could save 40mn toe in 2026-35. Libya also needs to develop international partnerships to position itself at the "forefront of major research into hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen", the GNU said. And the GNU wishes to make "full use" of the cooperative mechanisms provided for in Article 6 of the Paris agreement, which includes two international carbon market mechanisms. Libya is also looking at introducing a "gradual" carbon tax or carbon market, the GNU said, as a "tool to improve energy efficiency and to secure financing to reduce fugitive emissions or in the electricity, industrial, waste, agriculture and forestry sectors". The GNU anticipates further GDP growth until 2035, along with a "significant" reduction in the country's carbon intensity even under the business-as-usual scenario. This is as the country starts from a "very high emission" level owing to the "total" absence of emissions reduction policies, it said. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

OGDC's oil, gas firms maintain focus on emissions cuts

10/11/26

OGDC's oil, gas firms maintain focus on emissions cuts

Edinburgh, 10 November (Argus) — Oil and gas firms in industry initiative the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter (OGDC) have maintained focus on commitments and co-operation "against a backdrop of geopolitical unpredictability, disrupted energy markets and competing operational pressures", Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber, Saudi Arabia's state-controlled Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser and TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said today. But gaps in data and data quality remain a challenge for the initiative. The three chief executives representing the initiative launched at Cop 28 in 2023 said that the OGDC signatories recognise reducing avoidable emissions in the sector "is an immediate contribution the industry must make while continuing to provide the energy the world demands, improve efficiency, and strengthen resilience". "Despite regional disruption in the Middle East, OGDC continues to serve as a multilateral platform that unites signatories from the US, Europe, the [Middle East] Gulf region, India, Africa, South America and Asia, to address the energy trilemma [energy security, affordability and sustainability] head on," they said. But even though the initiative said that transparency among the signatories has improved, it added that important gaps remain and some "continue to provide incomplete or only partially verified data". In 2025, the total scope 1 and 2 emissions, including upstream and downstream operations, reported by 47 signatories out of 56 then was around 840mn t CO2 equivalent (CO2e). The 47 firms in 2025 represented 88pc of OGDC production. Scope 1 and 2 emissions from operations and indirect energy supply to operations typically account for a smaller share of oil and gas producers' emissions, while scope 3, or end-use, emissions represent an estimated 80-95pc of oil and gas producers' emissions. The OGDC report showed that around 74pc of a total of above 490mn t CO2e in upstream scope 1 and 2 emissions could be attributed to national oil companies in 2025. The OGDC's signatories' upstream carbon intensity has been estimated at around 22kg CO2e/bl of oil equivalent (boe) for the same period, according to the report. This is expected to change as data maturity improves, and it is "premature to deduce any trends", it said. On methane, the report said that the industry has made significant progress in methane leak detection and mitigation technologies, as well as improvements in operational practices, but there are fewer companies reporting on their methane emissions than on scope 1 and 2. "The aggregate OGDC upstream methane emissions estimate for 2025 is around 3mn t, of which 46pc is derived from third-party data," the OGDC report said. The report showed that OGDC signatories' upstream flaring volumes were around 29bn m³ or around 17pc of global flaring volumes. Around 80pc came from non-OGCI members, it noted. OGCI is another industry initiative and comprises Saudi Aramco, BP, Chevron, China's CNPC, Italy's Eni, Norway's Equinor, ExxonMobil, US firm Occidental, Brazil's Petrobras, Spain's Repsol, Shell and TotalEnergies. A total of 35 signatories, accounting for 84pc of OGDC operated production, have allocated capital to support their interim goals, and half said their budgets cover their entire plans, the report said. And 46 signatories, covering 96pc of operated production, have set voluntary interim 2030 Scope 1 and 2 ambitions, while more than 80pc of production is covered by action plans on emissions, methane and routine flaring, it said. The charter now has 57 signatories as of November, representing around one-third of global oil production. The Eni-Petronas joint-venture Searah joined the initiative earlier this month. Of the signatory companies, around two-thirds are state-owned, while OGDC signatories produced around 58mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2025, according to the report. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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