LME futures: Prices mostly up in officials

Spanish Market: Metals
11/11/26

Base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were mostly up today, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and resilient Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) data.

US president Donald Trump's administration has stepped up assurances that it has no plans to resume military hostilities with Iran. Trump has given such assurances before, only to then order strikes against Iran, but the sudden switch to ruling out military force, after weeks of threatening to use it, reflects concerns voiced by many Republicans that the war was a key cause of their party's losses in the US midterm elections last week.

Downstream demand for base metals has also been supported by strong NEV production in China. China's October NEV production increased by 14pc on the year to 2.02mn units, with sales up 13pc to 1.94mn units, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). NEVs accounted for 64.3pc of total vehicle sales last month.

The three-month nickel contract was up 0.40pc on the day to $16,140/t.

Japanese metal producer Sumitomo Metal Mining's Philippine nickel processing subsidiary Coral Bay Nickel Corporation is entering the final stage of its operating life and production is expected to cease in fiscal years 2028-30. This signals the eventual loss of some nickel output and highlights pressures on higher-cost producers.

The three-month copper contract on the LME was down 0.25pc on the day to $13,795/t in the official trading session.

Copper has increasingly accumulated in US London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses as the tariff-driven arbitrage that pulled large volumes of refined metal into the country earlier this year has faded. This means traders have more flexibility over whether stocks ultimately remain in the US or move back overseas.

The aluminium contract on the LME increased by 1.22pc on the day to $3,064/t.

Three-month tin saw the biggest daily rise of 1.26pc to $46,900/t in the official session.

US-based Alphamin Resources will supply US tin refiner Nathan Trotter with a portion of the tin concentrates produced at its Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as part of Alphamin's strategy to diversify its customer base and support the development of western tin refining capacity.

The three-month zinc contract increased 0.32pc on the day to $3,746/t, while lead was down by just $2/t to $1,880/t.

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12/11/26

Chinese HRC sellers step up Jebel Ali offers via Hormuz

Mumbai, 12 November (Argus) — Chinese traders are increasingly offering hot-rolled coil (HRC) to UAE buyers on a cfr Jebel Ali basis as more Chinese-owned vessels start crossing the strait of Hormuz, industry sources said. This has provided an attractive alternative for buyers facing months-long delays, hefty demurrage charges and road transportation costs linked to cargoes discharged at the ports of Fujairah and Oman. An increasing number of Chinese vessels carrying steel products are reaching Jebel Ali, sources said. Only two or three vessels were reported to have crossed the strait of Hormuz last month, but four or five have already made the transit so far in November, according to market estimates. News that Tehran exempted countries including India and China from restrictions on shipping through the strait may be encouraging more vessel owners to undertake the transit, a trading firm said. Apart from China, no other origins were reported to offer shipments on a cfr Jebel Ali basis. Indian suppliers have withdrawn from the Mideast Gulf market in recent months, favouring domestic sales after Indian HRC prices reached multi-year highs. Japanese and South Korean suppliers were also not active in the Middle East market, but continued to favour Fujairah and other regional ports over direct deliveries through the strait of Hormuz, sources said. The renewed flow of cfr Jebel Ali offers is currently being led primarily by trading firms, with quoted freight rates varying widely, depending on the vessel owner and contract terms. Some suppliers are charging an additional $30-50/t to account for the risks associated with transiting the strait of Hormuz, sources said. Freight from China to the UAE was around $40/t before the conflict, but has since risen to around $80-85/t for standard shipments, with detention costs charged separately. Some freight indications are as high as $140-150/t on an all-inclusive basis for cargoes delivered directly to Jebel Ali, sources said. Buyers appear willing to accept higher charges for Hormuz shipments, preferring deliveries to Jebel Ali over alternative ports such as Fujairah, where congestion has pushed waiting times beyond 90 days in some cases. Some importers were incurring hefty demurrage costs on previously booked cargoes after vessel waiting times exceeded the assumed 30-day period at Fujairah. "It's always better to pay an extra $50/t freight than waiting indefinitely at Fujairah," an importer said. Deliveries through Sohar in Oman entail additional trucking costs and vehicle shortages for onward land transport into the UAE, making direct deliveries to Jebel Ali increasingly attractive, sources said. As Jebel Ali was largely inactive during much of the conflict, berthing was heard to be readily available once vessels arrived. If competing origins continue steering clear of cfr Jebel Ali offers, Chinese HRC sellers have a distinct advantage in the Middle East, which could potentially boost their market share in the region. Already, UAE importers were heard to have booked a combined volume of around 50,000t of Chinese HRC over the past few weeks, with transaction prices differing, depending on delivery terms and whether cargoes were discharged at Jebel Ali via the strait of Hormuz. By Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US aims to grow mineral stockpile

11/11/26

US aims to grow mineral stockpile

Houston, 11 November (Argus) — The US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) awarded up to $3.3bn in firm, fixed-price indefinite quantity/indefinite delivery (IDIQ) contracts for cobalt, gallium, nickel and high purity aluminum for the national defense stockpile, prompting questions over the quantities to actually be purchased. Under an IDIQ contract, the agency may place purchases during the established ordering period under a maximum total purchasing amount, although the agency is not obligated to buy that volume or value. The awarded values represent ceilings of what could be spent under the IDIQ contracts and are not guaranteed purchases. None of the acquisitions were announced officially by the awardee companies, but a spokesperson for the DLA noted awardees can choose to publicly share deals. Since the beginning of 2025 Metallus , Elmet , Largo , US Antimony and Global Advanced Metals all shared public updates on awards with the agency for strategic materials. The DLA committed $2bn to acquiring strategic and critical materials for the national defense stockpile throughout fiscal year 2026 (1 October 2025 to 30 September 2026), including high purity aluminum, according to an agency press release. Previously, the DLA would release the Annual Materials Plan (AMP), a list of potential material acquisitions including maximum quantities to be purchased, at the beginning of the agency's fiscal year in October. The DLA never released an AMP for the 2026 fiscal year and has yet to release one for 2027, leaving market participants still mulling which materials the agency already secured and what will be prioritized. Cobalt Switzerland-based miner and trader Glencore secured a contract to supply cobalt worth up to $900mn over a five-year period, according to an updated filing on the agency's procurement website. The DLA declined to comment on the quantity of material to be purchased. Glencore declined to comment on the award. Market participants noted without any confirmed information on the quantity or grade of cobalt the DLA plans to acquire, it would be difficult to gauge the impact on the market of the total tender as news of the award spread. When the contract was finalized in May, Argus assessed alloy grade prices on average at $30-31.50/lb which would imply a volume of approximately 13,276 metric tonnes (t) at the midpoint of the range, if the full $900mn were spent over the five-year ordering period at that level. Some sellers questioned whether the total volume of metal had already been removed from the market and was held in reserve for the DLA or if Glencore would need to acquire additional metal which could potentially tighten supply. Some market participants surveyed by Argus broadly dismissed supply concerns over the contract, particularly dependent on the grade and timeline. Others were also largely unconcerned about the tender's impact on the domestic cobalt markets, since the contract was awarded in May 2026, largely unbeknownst to participants until recently. The agency initially requested quotes for up to 16.5mn lb (7,480t) of alloy-grade cobalt cut cathode or rounds in August 2025 for a maximum of $500mn before the tender was cancelled . Ultimately, the request was not competed. Nickel Glencore was also awarded a separate contract from the DLA for up to $65mn to supply 1,500t of nickel cathodes and pellets over a five-year ordering period beginning in September. The agency initially issued a request for information on class 1 nickel products in March 2026 for 3,500t. Argus obtained a copy of the nickel contract from the DLA internet bid board system, where it was posted publicly for a time alongside other non-ferrous contracts for the national defense stockpile, including the gallium contract, before being pulled. After viewing the nickel contract, market participants surveyed by Argus posed few questions with some noting the expected volume to be purchased was relatively small and likely would not impact the market. Aluminum The Department of Defense announced Rio Tinto was awarded up to $995mn to supply high purity aluminum to the DLA on 25 September, noting it was a competitive acquisition with three responses received. The company will supply "a small volume" of high purity aluminum, Rio Tinto confirmed, but did not provide further details as to how much material the company could supply over the five-year period. Aluminum roller Arconic also received an IDIQ award to supply high purity aluminum for up to $995mn over a five-year period. The company did not respond to a request for comment. The Department of Defense awarded Arconic $45.5mn in 2023 to boost production of high purity aluminum for missiles and munitions. Gallium The DLA awarded Louisiana-based alumina producer Atlantic Alumina (Atalco) a contract to supply up to $350mn for 55,610kg (55.6t) of gallium over a five-year ordering period. Atalco did not immediately provide comment to Argus . The DOD has invested $400mn in the company, with a portion of the equity financing going toward scaling primary gallium production. The company expects to make 50t/yr of the semiconductor input once begins producing commercial volumes. By Jenna Baer Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: European Investment Bank on EU mineral strategy

11/11/26

Q&A: European Investment Bank on EU mineral strategy

London, 11 November (Argus) — The European Investment Bank (EIB) financed €1.2bn ($1.3bn) in 2025 for critical raw materials projects across the value chain, as the EU aims to strengthen supply-chain resilience. Argus spoke to EIB vice-president Nicola Beer about the sector's biggest financing gaps, the case for a broader financing toolbox that includes greater equity and risk-sharing capacity, and Europe's efforts to build more diversified supply chains. The EIB signed a framework agreement with Canada to support critical raw material investment. How important is foreign investment to Europe's long-term supply security, and is the EU doing enough to turn strategic partnerships into viable projects? Europe will never achieve critical raw-material security by trying to produce everything itself. What we need is diversification including more capacity at home, but also several reliable international partners. Canada has the abundant mineral resources Europe needs and Europe brings industrial demand, technology and capital. Bringing the two together should be a natural fit. But identifying common interests is the easy part. A mine or processing facility can take years to develop, requires large upfront investment and has to remain viable through volatile commodity-price cycles. Investors need confidence that there will be buyers for the material, while European industry needs confidence that the supply will actually be there. Where along the value chain does the EIB expect to deploy most of its capital over the next few years? I would resist choosing one part of the value chain. A mine without processing capacity or a refinery without reliable feedstock do not create resilience. Our approach is to invest across the value chain, from extraction and processing to refining, recycling, substitution and innovation. Financing needs will depend on the material and the bottleneck. Our job is to identify where investment can make the greatest difference to Europe's resilience and competitiveness. Likewise, there is no simple ranking of critical raw materials that determines what we finance. What matters is where Europe is most vulnerable and where investment can make the greatest difference. This is why we are developing a heat map that looks beyond supply concentration to the consequences any disruption would have for European industry. The EIB has said EU mineral exploration spending will need to rise to meet the Critical Raw Materials Act's domestic extraction goals. Could the EIB play a more direct role in supporting exploration projects? Exploration is where we have one of the biggest financing gaps and it is the highest-risk part of the value chain. Our study estimates that European exploration spending needs to increase from around €200mn to around €2bn a year. But that is an investment need for Europe, not an EIB financing target. The challenge is that only a tiny fraction of exploration prospects become operating mines. Traditional debt finance is therefore often not the right instrument at the earliest stages. If Europe wants significantly more exploration, it needs to find ways of absorbing more of that early-stage risk. The EIB could play its part in that, but the right frameworks and mandates would need to be in place. The discussions around the next EU budget will be decisive in determining how much risk Europe is prepared to share in early-stage exploration. You have spoken about the need for additional equity and risk-sharing instruments. Could the EIB eventually take a larger role in providing equity capital to critical minerals projects? There is no single financing instrument that fits all projects. The risks are very different depending on whether you are looking at exploration, a first-of-a-kind technology, a processing plant or an established industrial operation. The EIB already goes beyond traditional lending. We use venture debt to support innovative companies such as TWAICE Technologies, which develops software to help improve the performance and lifetime of batteries used in electric vehicles and energy storage. But that will not be enough for some of the highest-risk projects. Europe needs a broader financing toolbox, including more equity and risk-sharing capacity. The EIB can play an important role in that toolbox, but the objective should be to use the right instrument for the right risk, not simply to replace debt with equity. The EIB has emphasised the importance of transparent pricing and market data in critical mineral markets. What progress is being made on the proposed price index? It is true that we need to make opaque markets more transparent. Investors can deal with risk but they struggle with uncertainty. One idea under discussion is whether anonymised transaction data from trading platforms could contribute to more reliable price indices, validated by established price-reporting agencies. This could build on existing platforms or on a new reporting mechanism through which market participants provide relevant transaction data. The aim is to establish credible reference prices based on actual transactions, rather than to set prices politically. Better price signals would give companies and investors a more reliable basis for long-term contracts and investment decisions. What would success look like for the EIB's critical minerals strategy? Success would mean that in five years we spend less time talking about what Europe lacks and more time talking about what we have built. I want to see new critical raw-material projects in Europe, stronger processing and recycling capacity, and a much broader network of reliable international partners. I want European companies to treat resilience as a permanent part of investment and procurement decisions rather than something we only discuss after the next supply shock. By Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India bans lithium-ion black mass exports

11/11/26

India bans lithium-ion black mass exports

Mumbai, 11 November (Argus) — India has prohibited exports of lithium-ion battery black mass in a move aimed at securing domestic feedstock for recyclers and boosting the recovery of critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel. The Directorate-General of Foreign Trade has amended the export policy for lithium-ion battery black mass under ITC(HS) code 85491400 from free to prohibited with immediate effect, according to notification No. 49/2026-27. Transitional arrangements as outlined in the Foreign Trade Policy 2023 will apply. The code covers waste and scrap from primary cells, batteries and electric accumulators, as well as spent batteries and accumulators that do not contain lead, cadmium or mercury. The notification specifically identifies the material as lithium-ion battery black mass. Black mass is the powder produced from shredding end-of-life lithium-ion batteries and battery manufacturing scrap. It contains valuable recoverable metals including lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese, key inputs for electric vehicles (EVs), battery manufacturing, energy storage systems and renewable energy technologies. The government said the restriction is intended to ensure that black mass generated in India is processed within the country rather than exported, improving raw material availability for domestic recycling and refining plants. India's battery recycling and critical mineral recovery industry has expanded in recent years, but capacity utilisation has been constrained by limited feedstock availability. Industry participants have at times relied on imported battery waste despite the availability of domestically generated black mass. By retaining the material within the country, the government expects to increase domestic recovery of critical minerals, reduce dependence on imported raw materials and lower foreign exchange outflows. The measure is also intended to support investment and job creation in the recycling sector and strengthen supply chains for batteries, EVs and energy storage technologies. The restriction aligns with India's broader strategy of developing a domestic critical minerals ecosystem. It also complements the government's Rs15bn ($177mn) incentive scheme, approved in September 2025, to support critical minerals recycling and recovery from secondary sources such as battery waste and electronic scrap. By Deepika Singh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s scrap export tender rises further in November

11/11/26

Japan’s scrap export tender rises further in November

Shanghai, 11 November (Argus) — The Japanese scrap dealer cooperative Kanto Tetsugen's export tender price rose further in November on renewed demand from Vietnam. A total of 20,000t of H2 scrap was awarded at ¥53,688/t ($338.18/t) free alongside ship (fas) today, up by ¥1,611/t from October. The result was equivalent to around ¥54,688/t fob, exceeding initial market expectations. The cargo is expected to be shipped to Vietnam, translating to an estimated price of around $395/t cfr. Vietnamese mills have been reluctant to raise their bids for imported scrap on a slower-than-expected recovery in steel demand, with most maintaining target prices at $380-385/t cfr for H2. The higher tender result included a quality premium of around $5/t and also reflected the limited availability of cheaper alternatives in the seaborne market for large-volume buyers. Many traders did not expect other Vietnamese mills or overseas buyers to follow at this price level, as many mills were already facing squeezed profit margins on the back of the current weak steel market. Argus ' daily assessment for Japanese H2 scrap was ¥52,000/t fob on 10 November. Tokyo Steel has kept domestic scrap prices unchanged since 22 October, with its H2 price at ¥51,000/t fas at its Tokyo Bay yard. Market participants were watching to see whether Tokyo Steel would raise domestic prices in response to the higher tender result. But trade sources said domestic mills had been receiving sufficient scrap supplies recently as overseas demand was subdued. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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