Singapore I-RECs hit 2026-high on standards update

Spanish Market: Electricity
12/11/26

Singapore 2026 vintage solar I-RECs have reached their highest levels this year in early November, following a revision to national standards and rising corporate demand.

Argus assessed 2026 vintage solar I-RECs at $28.50/MWh on 5 November, above the previous peak of $26/MWh on 22 January. The price has been rising since mid-September on higher demand. But the latest weekly increase, at $2.75/MWh, was the steepest since January (see graph).

Singapore revised its SS673 voluntary national code for renewable energy certificates (RECs) at the end of October, recommending companies to use only certificates from domestic generation or from renewable power imports for scope 2 claims.

The previous iteration of SS673 from 2021 recognised southeast Asian certificates more broadly, prompting Singaporean companies to use lower-priced regional I-RECs. In January-October this year, 82pc of the 3.5TWh of I-RECs redeemed in Singapore were issued from Vietnamese renewable power generation not contractually supplied to Singapore.

The revised SS673 limits companies adopting the standard to using only Singaporean certificates in the near term. Large-scale renewable power imports into Singapore would likely start from 2029, if projects in southern Malaysia come to fruition. Import projects from Indonesia's Riau Islands were due to start from 2028, but recent political roadblocks will likely delay progress.

Singaporean REC buyers are expected to factor in tighter availability next year and seek to secure supplies early, chief commercial officer at Singapore environmental commodities exchange Climate Impact X Ellery Sutanto told Argus. Offers for 2027 vintage solar certificates are currently around S$45/MWh ($38.96/MWh), above offers of S$40-44/MWh this week for 2026 vintage contracts.

Uncertain trajectory

But the demand trajectory for Singapore I-RECs remains uncertain. SS673 is a voluntary standard and companies are considering future engagement with the revised guidelines, as Singaporean I-RECs are priced at a high premium to regional markets.

Some firms have existing multi-year supply deals for Vietnamese I-RECs, and retaining these contracts could mean delaying procurement of Singaporean certificates. Argus assessed Vietnamese 2026 vintage solar I-RECs at $0.25/MWh on 5 November, over 100 times lower than equivalent Singaporean certificates. The revised SS673 standard does not rule on whether companies can grandfather existing southeast Asian REC contracts.

Nonetheless, some participants say alignment to the revised SS673, and corporate demand for Singapore I-RECs, will rise because of investor pressure to align decarbonisation efforts with sustainability standards.

Companies facing less investor pressure could "think twice" about buying Singapore I-RECs, given they are already being squeezed by higher electricity prices this year, but this represents a small pool of buyers and "will not materially soften demand for Singapore RECs", co-founder of Singapore environmental services firm Reduc, Chuck Chen, told Argus.

"Corporate demand for RECs is mainly driven by reporting requirements and climate commitments, and those have not changed," Sutanto said.

And Singapore recently introduced corporate income tax deductions on voluntary use of RECs aligned with the updated SS673, which could further boost demand. Tax deductions on environmental commodities were previously only applicable for procurement of carbon credits for compliance purposes.

Unique demand patterns

I-REC demand in Singapore has been structurally higher than local supply in recent years, given the high concentration of business headquarters in the city-state, and small land area to deploy renewables at scale.

Singaporean I-REC supply was 429GWh in January-October this year, eight times lower than total domestic redemptions, but consumption of Singaporean I-RECs was just 241GWh considering the high volume of imported certificates (see chart).

Still, several rounds of buy tenders for Singapore RECs have taken place recently, some of which were above 50GWh. These tenders are drawing down supply of local RECs at a time when corporate procurement is accelerating.

In most other southeast Asian markets, I-REC demand is predominantly for locally generated certificates. Most markets are also facing certificate oversupply, as I-REC output outpaces companies setting decarbonisation targets and procuring certificates to make scope 2 emissions reduction claims.

By Liang Lei

Singapore solar I-REC assessed prices ($/MWh)

Singapore I-REC issuances and redemptions, January-October 2026 (GWh)

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11/11/26

Cop: Norway, Indonesia sign Paris Article 6.2 deal

London, 11 November (Argus) — Indonesia and Norway on Wednesday signed a bilateral agreement on co-operating under Article 6.2 of the Paris climate deal, through which Norway will provide financial support to greenhouse gas emissions reductions in Indonesia's power sector. Norway will purchase up to 12mn t of emissions reductions over 10 years under the agreement, which intends to support a shift to solar from coal-fired generation in Indonesia. The deal only covers projects that would not have happened without the funding, in line with Article 6 rules on additionality. Article 6.2 allows countries to trade so-called internationally transferred mitigation outcomes from a project host country to a buyer country, which can then count the emissions reductions towards its climate targets under the Paris agreement. The deal follows an initial agreement to collaborate on reducing Indonesia's power sector emissions through Article 6 cooperation signed by the countries in June 2025. Norway is one of 10 buyer countries under Article 6.2, and has signed bilateral agreements with eight other countries under the mechanism — Kenya , Senegal , Zambia , Morocco , Benin, Jordan , Pakistan and Switzerland . The Norwegian government said last month that it plans to increase its resources for Article 6 purchases to 26.1bn Norwegian kroner ($2.7bn) in its 2027 national budget, from NKr15bn in this year's budget. Deputy director-general of the Norwegian climate ministry's climate change department Guri Storaas said in September that Article 6 is a "priority" for Norway because of its role in reducing the risk of the country not meeting its climate targets solely through collaboration with the EU, as well as its cost effectiveness. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran war shows jet supply chain resilience is key: AEF

11/11/26

Iran war shows jet supply chain resilience is key: AEF

Singapore, 11 November (Argus) — Ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war have demonstrated the importance of better communication among supply chain stakeholders and investing in more resilient aviation fuel supply chains, said panellists at the International Air Transport Association (IATA)'s Aviation Energy Forum (AEF) in Guangzhou on 10 November. The conflict created many supply chain challenges, including preventing go-to fuel suppliers from providing usual volumes, shipping challenges, and demand volatility that created financial exposure for the company, head of Shell Aviation Asia and Middle East Doris Tan said. "Some of the supply solutions we need moving forward will be different from what has worked in the past," added Reuben Reina, managing director of fuel management at US airline United Airlines. The Chicago, Illinois-based airline lifts jet fuel at 425 airports, totalling about 30mn gallons/d (714,000 b/d). This is a tremendous amount of volume exposure, and the firm is exposed to nearly two dozen different benchmarks globally, he said. To improve fuel supply chain resilience during this period, fuel storage company Vopak "identified hub locations where there are aggregations of fuel supplies from various traders and suppliers", commercial manager Stephen Hoh said. And the firm built newer terminals there with easily-modifiable or upgradeable tankage infrastructure between the different fuel types in storage, he added. Vopak quickly adapted by converting certain tanks to store jet fuel, which could then be redistributed to a network, Hoh said. Vopak plans to put similar adaptations in place for the storage of renewable fuels including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), he said. In future, artificial intelligence (AI) could help examine SAF and jet fuel flows to identify the most well-connected trading hubs to invest in, Hoh added. This will help the firm connect as quickly as possible to end markets. Vopak is also looking at improving efficiency by having more streamlined, open systems where fuels can be used by multiple users, thus lowering costs. Asked whether multiple supply pathways to the airport build resilience, or if one very reliable supply chain is enough, United's Reina said it depends on the marginal utility of having an additional path versus its cost. "Historically, there's been a lot of focus on making the supply chain more lean and efficient over time — but that leads to a little bit of myopia," Reina said. Diversification is important, especially considering where United Airlines operates, he added. Diversification adds complexity, but creates increased access to airports. "Supply resilience has a rightful place, but done in a sensible way [considering costs]," he said. The industry needs to invest in supply contingencies and jet fuel infrastructure to remain resilient. Shell's Tan said. "If you want resilience, you must have options and contingencies," she said. There has been discussion on SAF at previous IATA conferences, but it needs to be established that conventional jet is the main fuel needed in aviation for many decades to come, she added. "Having a refinery in your backyard makes you feel like you have supply security — which is true to some extent. But you need to couple that with trading capabilities, in the event perhaps that the refinery switches from jet fuel to diesel production. You then have the trading capability to divest or source from different sources," Tan said. This may lead to longer voyage times which would then need more midstream infrastructure like tanks, she added. Steffan Munday, group head of fuel operations at Anglo-Spanish airline IAG, noted the importance of understanding the full supply chain and implementing the right solutions for resilience, not just easy ones. It might be easy to put another tank at the airport, but harder to build a pipeline, for example. "But it's cheaper to have resilience, than not to be flying," he said. Communication is key A short-term solution to improve resilience is more timely communication among supply chain players about factors like supply and demand, Tan said, a view echoed by other panellists. "This is so we're not second-guessing each other and can invest precious capital in the right avenues where customers have growth or demand. Communication doesn't add a lot of cost to the industry, but helps us work better," she said. Building in more buffer time for fuel management and planning will help, but in the longer term, industry players need to come together to invest more in infrastructure, she added. The Middle East crisis has revealed weaknesses in the network, and strengthening these areas should be the focus, she said. Many infrastructure investment opportunities only come in small windows of time, often after a crisis, Reina said. Getting approval will take time and involve lengthy processes, but airlines should take a longer-term view instead of only focusing on what costs in the next quarter or year look like, he added. Continuous dialogue between airports and fuel teams is vital so that stakeholders are well-prepared when opportunities for infrastructure development appear. "You're not scrambling as you've already done the legwork, and you can act well," he said. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Libya pledges GHG reductions in first NDC

10/11/26

Cop: Libya pledges GHG reductions in first NDC

Berlin, 10 November (Argus) — Libya's internationally recognised Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) has pledged to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15pc in 2035 compared with 2023, conditional on international finance. The country submitted its first climate plan under the Paris climate agreement — or nationally determined contribution (NDC) — to UN climate arm the UNFCCC. It covers the 2026-35 period. Without international finance, Libya expects its GHG emissions to rise by 20pc over the period, still an improvement on the almost 35pc increase expected under a business-as-usual scenario, the GNU said. Libya expects most of the GHG reductions to stem from gas flaring recovery, which will capture and use natural gas currently wasted during oil production, reducing emissions while increasing energy supply, the GNU said. Gas flaring recovery projects are expected to avoid around 90mn t CO2e and save 40mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of natural gas for domestic use or export in 2026–35. Emissions cuts in power generation are also expected to contribute significantly. Political instability since Libya's 2011 civil war explains the late submission of its first NDC, and also leads to challenging financing conditions, the GNU said. Libya emitted 97.3mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2023, with the energy sector — including not just oil, gas and power production but also transport — the biggest emitter by far, accounting for 88pc. The country pointed to its substantial crude reserves, saying that the exploitation of oil and gas is an opportunity for investment and development. But it is also working to diversify its economy to protect itself from oil prices fluctuations and contribute to the energy transition and cut its exposure to environmental vulnerabilities, the GNU said. Implementing Libya's emissions reduction measures will require an estimated $29.6bn over 2026–35, of which domestic finance accounts for 31pc, according to the NDC. The energy sector will require the lion's share, at $28bn. But while the largest overall contribution to the cuts will come from gas flaring recovery, at 36pc, this is estimated to need just $1.9 bn, or 6.3pc, of the total finance. This compares with the power sector, which will contribute 26pc to emissions cuts but is expected to need $14.6bn, around half the total finance. The transport sector will need $8.8 bn, or almost 30pc of the total. Funds will support fleet modernisation, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, electrification and public transport. The GNU also pointed to state-owned National Oil Corporation's (NOC's) engagement in international initiatives such as the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0), and related tools including the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS). The GNU has been assessing the viability of replacing diesel with gas for power generation. The switch to natural gas in the country's power sector could save 40mn toe in 2026-35. Libya also needs to develop international partnerships to position itself at the "forefront of major research into hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen", the GNU said. And the GNU wishes to make "full use" of the cooperative mechanisms provided for in Article 6 of the Paris agreement, which includes two international carbon market mechanisms. Libya is also looking at introducing a "gradual" carbon tax or carbon market, the GNU said, as a "tool to improve energy efficiency and to secure financing to reduce fugitive emissions or in the electricity, industrial, waste, agriculture and forestry sectors". The GNU anticipates further GDP growth until 2035, along with a "significant" reduction in the country's carbon intensity even under the business-as-usual scenario. This is as the country starts from a "very high emission" level owing to the "total" absence of emissions reduction policies, it said. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesian power-sector coal demand to rise by 20mn t

09/11/26

Indonesian power-sector coal demand to rise by 20mn t

Manila, 9 November (Argus) — Indonesia's growing domestic power demand will drive its thermal coal consumption higher next year, with state-owned utility PLN Energi Primer Indonesia (EPI) expecting power-sector coal demand to increase to 174mn t from this year's estimated 154mn t. EPI's coal-fired plants are expected to account for 98mn t of coal demand next year, while independent power producers are expected to consume 76mn t. EPI did not disclose projected consumption for captive coal-fired plants as the company is responsible for sourcing coal only for grid-connected power plants. EPI noted that coal demand in the power sector is dominated by medium calorific (CV) coal. In 2027, medium-CV coal consumption in the power generation sector is expected to reach 89mn t, while low-CV coal consumption will reach 76mn t. Only 8.51mn t of high-CV coal is projected to be consumed. This is because Indonesia's power plants are designed to burn GAR 4,000-5,000 kcal/kg coal as their fuel source. But Indonesia's coal reserves are dominated by low-CV coal, with the energy and mineral resources ministry estimating low-CV coal reserves at 24.06bn t, medium-CV coal at 4.54bn t, and high-CV coal at 3.36bn t. The low availability of medium-CV coal has already impacted Indonesia this year, with the Java grid experiencing rotating power interruptions because of insufficient power supply resulting from a shortage of mid-CV coal in power plant stockpiles, forcing the plants to run at a de-rated capacity. To address this, EPI is developing a programme that will help improve the plants' ability to utilise lower-CV coal, including GAR 3,600 kcal/kg coal. A total of 16 power plants will be chosen for the programme but EPI did not disclose the specific units, saying that technical studies were still being done. One of the key issues is to ensure that the plants can use lower-CV coal without compromising combustion efficiency, equipment reliability and available electricity supply to the grid. The coal CV switching programme will be deployed in stages to ensure that any negative impacts to the grid will be minimised. By Antonio Reyes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran's post-war oil rebuild 80pc complete

09/11/26

Iran's post-war oil rebuild 80pc complete

Dubai, 9 November (Argus) — Reconstruction of Iran's war-damaged oil infrastructure is about 80pc complete, according to Mohammad Meshkinfam, managing director of state-owned oil engineering firm NIOEC. Work on refined oil product transfer facilities is around 60pc complete, while reconstruction of damaged oil facilities and storage depots has reached 80pc, Meshkinfam told oil ministry news agency Shana. NIOEC aims to fully restore the targeted infrastructure by the end of the Iranian calendar month of Aban, around 21 November. Despite damage to the Rey oil depot and other storage hubs in Tehran province, the capital's fuel-distribution system was restored within about two weeks and is now operating above its previous capacity, according to NIOEC. Iran's oil and gas infrastructure has been repeatedly targeted since the war with the US and Israel began in late February. Depots in Shahran, Karaj and Aghdasieh, as well as the 220,000 b/d Tehran refinery, were hit during the first week of the conflict, according to Argus data. The US and Israel also targeted a range of energy and industrial infrastructure, including the Pars petrochemical complex, the 55,000 b/d Lavan refinery, steel plants and power and water utilities. The extent of the damage and progress of the reconstruction work have not been independently verified. By Elshan Aliyev Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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