Turkey's increasing rate of electricity demand growth means investors are continuing to pursue plans for power plants that will use imported coal — a trend that runs parallel to the government's desire to break the country's high dependency on gas-fired power — speakers at the Argus Turkish Solid Fuels 2014 conference in Istanbul said today.
Turkish power consumption growth is projected at 5.5pc/yr over the next decade, according to revised energy ministry forecasts. And consumer country organisation the IEA expects energy use in Turkey to almost double over the next decade.
The country's coal-fired capacity is 12.4GW now, of which 3.9GW uses imported coal and 8.5GW domestic hard coal and lignite, according to grid operator Teias.
The main imported coal-fired plants expected to start up this year are the 350MW Izdemir, steelmaker Icdas' 600MW Bekirli 2, Diler Holding's 600MW Atlas and Adularya's 290MW Yunus Emre. And the first 135MW unit of Aksa's 270MW lignite-fired plant is also due on line around the end of this year or the beginning of next year. Izdemir is already in the testing process, and Atlas is due to begin testing in May. Icdas' unit is expected on line in next 1-2 months.
Energy regulator EPDK has this year granted two preliminary generation licences for plants that will use imported coal. These plants have a total capacity of 795MW. EPDK has also granted two preliminary licences for plants that will use domestic coal. These plants have a combined capacity of 600MW.
Total licence applications to EPDK represent more than 20GW of capacity, but not all of this is expected to be fully realised, because of a mixture of financing problems, feasibility issues and environmental protests.
The interest in new investments is still driven primarily by imported coal-fired plants, despite a strong energy ministry push to develop local lignite resources with lower calorific values.
"The important steam coal projects, they are very viable today and they will remain very viable and environmentally sustainable in the future," Yildirim Energy Investments chief executive Tamer Turna said.
Turkey imports 80pc of the hard coal that it consumes, and new plants coming on line will result in higher coal import demand. For coal producers, Turkey is a relatively bright spot in terms of coal demand growth in Europe.
Growing coal imports will also require port infrastructure expansion. The energy and transportation ministries are receiving studies from investors regarding port use in the country's Mediterranean region, and they are supporting this development, the energy ministry's head of the directorate general for energy affairs, Ozturk Selvitop, told the Argus conference. He is also lending support to investors as they encounter environmental lobbying. "We are monitoring that process and those investments will hopefully be realised," he said.
Environmental protests have already held up several coal-fired projects in Turkey. EPDK electricity department head Ahmet Ocak highlighted the Amasra local hard coal basin, where the investor has not been able to secure an environmental impact assessment (EIA) report for a new plant after five years. The EIA is needed to secure a power generation licence and begin construction.
Coal-fired plants are critical to Turkey's supply security, Ocak said. He pointed to this winter's cold snap, when peak demand climbed to 38GW, but gas-fired plants went off line because of a combination of gas supply and transmission problems. "We would have had a much bigger problem if we did not have the Isken or Eren plants,'' he said.
Turkish firm Isken's managing director, Sirri Uyanik, underlined Turkey's overly high dependence on gas-fired generation for base-load power. "Turkey should have more coal and it should be balanced between lignite and imported coal,'' he said, underlining that imported coal is a viable alternative to gas, and not to domestic coal.
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