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US Jan factory activity growth 1st in a year
US Jan factory activity growth 1st in a year
Houston, 2 February (Argus) — Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in a year, as new orders and production surged following 26 months of contraction for the factory segment. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 52.6 in January, up from 47.9 in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Readings above 50 signal growth while readings below that level signify contraction. The January reading was the highest since February 2022, and the first expansion reading since January 2025. ISM's new manufacturing orders index rose to 57.1 in January from 47.4 in December, while the production index rose to 55.9 from 50.7. New export orders rose to 50.2 from 46.8 in December. Imports rose to 50 from 44.6. President Donald Trump's heavy use of tariffs in the past year to wrest trade and other concessions from trading partners, allies and adversaries alike, has skewed trade flows, corporate planning and investment decisions, especially among manufacturers. "Confused and uninformed tariff policies continue to plague small companies, making long-term planning pointless," a fabricated metal products executive said in comments in the survey. "Companies are not making capital commitments beyond 30 days." While the January results show signs of improvement, underlying conditions continue to be troubling, according to other survey respondents. "Business conditions remain soft as we continue to miss sales, orders and profits as result of increased costs from tariffs, continued fallout from the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty," a miscellaneous manufacturing executive said. The employment index rose to 48.1 in January, signaling a slowing pace of contraction, from 44.8 in December. The price index edged higher to 59 from 58.5. The inventories index rose to 47.6 in January from 45.7, signaling diminishing pace of contraction. Order backlogs rose to 51.6 from 45.8. Services, the largest part of the economy, expanded in December, marking a tenth month of expansion, according to ISM's December survey. ISM will report the services PMI in two days By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump taps Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair: Update
Trump taps Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair: Update
Adds market reaction, background. Houston, 30 January (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said he would name former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve. "I have known Kevin for a long period of time and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed chairman, maybe the best," Trump said on social media early Friday. "On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting,' and he will never let you down." Warsh, a graduate of Harvard Law School and a former Morgan Stanley director, became the youngest Fed governor at 35 in 2006, serving through the financial crisis until 2011. During the height of the financial crisis, in 2008, Warsh was a key intermediary between the Fed and Wall Street. Warsh is also the son-in-law of Ron Lauder, heir to cosmetics giant Estee Lauder and a donor and friend of Trump's who is widely credited as being the person who originally suggested the idea of the US acquiring Greenland during Trump's first term. Warsh, who has been critical of the Fed in recent years, argued in a Wall Street Journal editorial in November that artificial intelligence and Trump's deregulation agenda gave Fed policymakers margin to ease policy. But he also told an audience in Boston last year that zero interest rates "leads to very bad economic outcomes," according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Market reaction Investors have followed the Fed chair nomination process closely, concerned about if the candidate would maintain the Fed's independence from political pressure. Market reaction Friday to Warsh's nomination was mixed. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six other major trading currencies, rose to 96.9 Friday from 96.25 after falling to a near-four year low on 27 January. The drop in the dollar has been driven by uncertainty over Trump's tariff and fiscal policies as well as his threats to the post-war US-led world order that raise concerns of the longevity of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Trump's threats to undermine the Fed's independence have also helped weaken the dollar. CME's FedWatch tool, which follows market sentiment on the Fed interest rate changes, showed marginally increased odds of rate cuts in June, the first month Warsh would be at the helm of the Fed if confirmed. Odds the Fed target rate would be a quarter point lower after the June meeting rose to 49.2pc from 46.9pc on Thursday, while odds the rate would be a half point lower rose to 16pc from 13.7pc. "We would advise against drawing strong conclusions about the economic and market implications" of a Warsh chairmanship at the Fed, Pantheon said in a note Friday. "Our instincts tell us Mr. Warsh will be more preoccupied with how history will view his record than with continuing to pander to the President." Replacing Powell If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would replace Powell, also a Trump appointee whose term ends in May, even though he can remain on the board of governors. While Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, a few Republican senators have indicated they will not back Trump's pick if the Department of Justice's criminal probe into Powell's congressional testimony last summer regarding cost overuns at a Fed building is not dropped, Pantheon noted. Trump has repeatedly derided Powell as a "numbskull" for allegedly being too slow to cut interest rates. The Fed this week kept its target rate unchanged after making three quarter-point rate cuts late last year. Of the 12 policy makers who voted on the Fed's latest interest rate decision, two Trump appointees, Christopher Waller, who was under consideration for the chairmanship, and Stephen Miran, who joined the board of governors late last year after serving as Trump's top economic adviser, dissented and voted to cut by a quarter point. Inflation has remained above the Fed's 2pc long-term target while job growth slowed sharply last year. Powell, in comments this week, suggested the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates. The Fed in December penciled in one quarter point cut this year. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico’s economy expands 1.6pc in 4Q
Mexico’s economy expands 1.6pc in 4Q
Mexico City, 30 January (Argus) — Mexico's economy expanded by 1.6pc in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, led by solid expansion in the agriculture sector and more modest growth in the industrial and services sectors. Gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded from the 0.1pc contractions in the second quarter and third quarters — the first quarterly contractions since the first quarter of 2021, and came in above estimates to raise full-year 2025 GDP growth to 0.5pc, according to preliminary estimates that statistics agency Inegi reported Friday. This follows 1.4pc growth in 2024 and marks a fourth year of slowing annual GDP growth. The quarterly expansion surpassed the 1.3pc consensus estimate provided by Mexican bank Banorte as well as the bank's own 1.5pc forecast. Looking at growth in the three basic components of GDP, the primary sector, which includes agriculture, fishing, mining and hydrocarbon extraction, expanded by 5.3pc in the fourth quarter, despite crop damage from widespread flooding in October, following 3.7pc growth in the third quarter. The services sector expanded 0.4pc, partially reversing the 2.7pc contraction recorded in the third quarter. The industrial sector, which includes manufacturing, construction and mining, posted a 2pc expansion — the strongest result since fourth quarter 2023. Banorte noted the expansion in the industrial sector is most likely linked to new building construction and possibly the ramp-up of public infrastructure works. Manufacturing support in the industry sector "appears to have been favorable" though mixed by segment, even as the automotive sector "seems to have improved after declining in previous quarters." "Finally, mining also appears to have rebounded, although with a more limited performance at the margin," said Banorte . Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, noted that while Mexico escaped a technical recession in 2025 "economic stagnation is evident," noting that GDP growth has averaged only 0.85pc in the last seven years that the populist-progressive Morena party has held control of congress and the presidency. Stronger 2026 in sight Banorte, however, said "the notable acceleration" at the end of 2025 translates to a stronger carry-over of economic momentum into 2026. "This, coupled with various domestic catalysts, our view of lower trade uncertainty, and of resilience in US activity, support our forecast of 1.8pc GDP growth [in 2026]," the bank said Friday. The catalysts include Mexico's hosting of multiple World Cup matches — drawing an expected 5mn additional tourists this year, as well as an acceleration in public spending, as Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum advances her economic agenda, "Plan Mexico." By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump taps Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair
Trump taps Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair
Houston, 30 January (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said he would name former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve. "I have known Kevin for a long period of time and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed chairman, maybe the best," Trump said on social media early Friday. "On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting,' and he will never let you down." Warsh, a graduate of Harvard Law School and a former Morgan Stanley director, became the youngest Fed governor at 35 in 2006, serving through the financial crisis until 2011. After serving at the Fed, he joined the Hoover Institute as a senior fellow. If confirmed by the Senate, he would replace Powell, whose term ends in May. Trump has repeatedly derided Powell as a "numbskull" for allegedly being too slow to cut interest rates. The Fed this week kept its target rate unchanged after making three quarter-point rate cuts late last year. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.