Quarterly Battery Materials market update – July 2024

China steel market muted after Two Sessions meeting

London, 19 March (Argus) — Steel market reactions to China's Two Sessions — its paramount annual political and economic gathering — were muted, as policy signals met market expectations. The meeting conveyed a cautious economic stance, setting a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5pc and a fiscal deficit ratio of around 4pc. Supply The "anti-involution" theme — a drive to curb excessive, self-defeating price competition across industries, including electric vehicles, solar and steel, by phasing out outdated capacity — resurfaced at this year's meeting. Introduced in July last year, the concept previously triggered a sharp rally in steel prices. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a 2025–26 work plan in September to stabilise steel industry growth. The plan called for precise control over capacity and output, while prohibiting capacity additions. It also seeks to promote market-based elimination of weaker participants to achieve a balance between supply and demand. China's crude steel output fell by 4.4pc to 960.81mn t in 2025, according National Bureau of Statistics data. Market participants largely attributed the decline to market-driven adjustments rather than administrative intervention. During this year's Two Sessions, the NDRC reiterated plans to further reduce capacity in steel, refining and other sectors. But the plans lack concrete production reduction targets and were viewed by some market participants as non-committal. China's crude steel output fell by 3.6pc on the year to 160.34mn t in January–February, despite the absence of mandatory curbs. Demand-side The real estate sector — historically the largest consumer of steel — saw no significant policy support. Official statements emphasised "controlling new supply and reducing inventories", suggesting a continued focus on derisking rather than stimulus. Infrastructure investment remains broadly stable. China plans to allocate 755bn yuan ($109.48bn) from the central budget, alongside Yn800bn in ultra long-term special government bonds. In addition, Yn4.4 trillion in local government special bonds will be issued to support major construction projects, replace implicit debt and clear government arrears. Overall, investment levels are largely in line with 2025. Downstream demand from the manufacturing sector also appears to have limited upside. Key consumers of flat steel — including automobiles, home appliances and machinery — face reduced policy support this year. Subsidies for automobiles and home appliances have been scaled back. The government work report proposed allocating Yn250bn in ultra-long special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programmes, down by Yn50bn from 2025. These funds serve as the primary subsidy pool, with autos and home appliances accounting for the bulk of eligible categories. Support for machinery is largely unchanged, with Yn200bn in special bonds earmarked for large-scale equipment upgrading. Outlook This year's Two Sessions indicated that Beijing is wary of aggressive stimulus measures for 2026. The steel sector is likely to rely more on mills self-regulating their output, alongside market-driven consolidation, to navigate the ongoing adjustment period. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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China Cu prices fall on higher stocks, stronger dollar

China Cu prices fall on higher stocks, stronger dollar

Shanghai, 19 March (Argus) — Copper prices in China have retreated in March, pressured by rising inventories and a firmer US dollar. The most-traded Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) April contract fell from 103,920 yuan/t ($15,104/t) on 27 February to a three-month low of Yn95,400/t on 18 March. London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper fell from a close of $13,296/t to $12,340.50/t over the same period. Combined LME and SHFE copper inventories increased to 745,283t on 13 March, up by 56pc from a month earlier. The build reflects higher refined output in China and a slower-than-expected recovery in demand following the 15-23 February lunar new year holiday. Industry estimates indicate China's refined copper output rose by 8-13pc on the year in January-February. Tight concentrate availability has not yet curtailed refined production, with smelters maintaining operations by accepting lower concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs). The Argus weekly TC index fell to -$60.20/t and -6.02¢/lb on 13 March, from -$44.60/t and -4.46¢/lb on 31 December. China imported 4.934mn t of copper concentrate in this year's first two months, up by 5pc on the year, customs data show. Market participants expect China's refined copper output to rise further in March, with Liangshan Copper planning to begin trial operations at its new 125,000 t/yr refinery this month. But demand growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector — a major driver of Chinese copper consumption in recent years — has moderated following cuts to purchase incentives . China's NEV output and sales fell by 8.8pc and 6.9pc to 1.735mn and 1.71mn units in January-February, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Argus forecasts copper demand from China's new-energy sectors to grow by about 2pc to more than 3.3mn t in 2026, far below the estimated 27pc increase in 2025. Downstream restocking interest remains limited, with domestic spot premiums assessed by Argus trading at discounts to SHFE since mid-January. China's imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished products fell by 16pc on the year to 700,000t in January-February, reflecting weaker import appetite during those months as arbitrage remained closed. Stronger dollar A strengthening US dollar has added further pressure to copper prices. The dollar index rose to a four-month high of 100.54 on 13 March, from 98.826 on 10 March. Market participants expressed concerns that sharply higher oil prices driven by the Middle East war could delay US monetary easing. The Ice front-month May Brent contract increased from $91.40/bl on 10 March to $109.65/bl on 18 March because of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region. The US Federal Reserve kept their target interest rate unchanged on 18 March, citing uncertainty stemming from "developments in the Middle East" following the Iran conflict. It continued to pencil in one quarter-point rate cut this year, unchanged from the previous projection in December. Policymakers still see one more quarter-point cut in 2027. But the copper market may remain bullish in the medium term from an international perspective. The war in the Middle East still carries supply-side risks that could tighten conditions later if they intensify, particularly in the African copper belt. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s South32 moves Gemco Mn workers offsite

Australia’s South32 moves Gemco Mn workers offsite

Sydney, 19 March (Argus) — Australian metals producer South32 is moving non-essential personnel offsite from its Groote Eylandt manganese operations (Gemco) as Cyclone Narelle approaches, a company spokesperson told Argus today. Gemco, located in the Northern Territory, sits in a region expected to be in Cyclone Narelle's path. South32 is working with the Local Emergency Controller to monitor the incoming weather system, the spokesperson added. Cyclone Narelle will pass Groote Eylandt — an island in the Gulf of Carpentaria — on Saturday afternoon, according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The cyclone is forecast to be a category three weather system by that time, BoM meteorologist Angus Hines said in a weather update. Groote Eylandt should expect a real uptick in the wind and rain conditions from around Saturday afternoon, Shenna Gamble, BoM's hazard preparedness and response manager for the Northern Territory, said at a press conference. South32 has faced severe weather challenges on Groote Eylandt before. The company paused mining operations on the island for four months in March 2024 because of Cyclone Megan. It only resumed manganese exports from Gemco in May 2025. South32 plans to produce 3.2mn t of manganese at Gemco in July 2025-June 2026, it said in a quarterly report on 22 January. The company raised its March-delivery Australian 43pc lumpy manganese ore cif China price by $0.10/metric tonne unit (mtu) to $5.20/mtu in late January because it expected Chinese demand for the metal to increase after the lunar new year holidays in February. Argus ' manganese ore 44-46pc Mn cif China price was last assessed at $5.23/mtu on 12 March, up from $4.63/mtu on 31 December. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.75pc

Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.75pc

Sao Paulo, 18 March (Argus) — Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate to 14.75pc in its second meeting of 2026, in a bid to smooth out fluctuations in economic activity and boost jobs even amid the backdrop of rising global tensions. The decision to lower the rate, announced on Wednesday, follows a string of decisions to keep it unchanged at 15pc from June 2025 until now. Domestically, economic activity appears to be moderating while the labor market is showing signs of resilience, the central bank's monetary committee said. Headline and underlying inflation measures continue to soften, but still remain above the inflation target. Inflation risks are higher than usual after the US-Israeli war on Iran broke out, the committee, known as the Copom, said. In the US, Fed policymakers Wednesday, kept the target rate unchanged for a second meeting this year. The lower rate in Brazil may be the start of a cutting cycle for the year, former Copom member Sergio Goldenstein said last week. It is not a one-time adjustment despite the lack of predictability due to rising global conflicts since the start of 2026, he said. Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to an annual 3.81pc in February. Still, inflation expectations, as calculated by the bank's Focus survey, remain above target, at 4.1pc and 3.8pc for 2026 and 2027. For full-year 2025, GDP growth slowed to 2.3pc from 3.4pc in 2024 and 3.2pc in 2023, IBGE data show. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook clouded by Iran war: IMEF