Argus Urea Outlook

Our expert-led 12-month urea price forecasts are enriched with 24-month forecasts using statistical price modelling, with probabilistic distribution. These enhanced 24-month forecasts incorporate frequent data points and advanced data science capabilities. They are powered by a distributional regression model, using linear and non-linear relationships to predict both future pricing levels and the probability of price variance around these levels. The framework uses industry-leading machine learning practices to identify optimal drivers to produce probabilistic price forecast outcomes.

Our price forecasts include: Baltic Sea (prilled) fob | Middle East fob | China (prilled) fob | North Africa fob | US Gulf coast fob st | Brazil cfr

A rolling global trade balance is provided in each issue, covering the next three months and next three quarters, with analysis of:

• Export total
• Import total
• West of Suez balance
• East of Suez balance

Provides a spotlight on regional demand, and key market summary focusing on previous years imports (GTT), current year’s requirement, estimated purchases YTD and outlook sentiment for:

• US
• India
• Thailand
• Brazil
• Turkey
• Australia
• France

The Argus Urea Outlook service incudes analysis of new capacity (planned/under-construction) for the year ahead, listing company, location, expected date and capacity alongside additional insights and notes.

The Argus Urea Outlook service includes production cost analysis for Russia, Netherlands, Ukraine, US, Iran, Egypt, China anthracite low cost cluster, China anthracite low cost cluster, China Bituminous cluster, China gas cluster (high cost) and China gas cluster (low cost). The analysis covers:

• Feedstock costs
• Variable costs
• Fixed costs
• Transport costs
• US Henry hub focus
• Dutch TTF focus
• Netherlands Asia LNG focus

The Argus Urea Outlook service provides analysis of the macroeconomic outlook, including the GDP growth forecast for the year for major fertilizer-consuming countries and regions including:

• Eurozone
• Brazil
• United States
• China
• India
• World

• Price forecasts data
• Price forecast graphs
• Price comparison data
• Urea production costs
• New capacity data
• Trade Balance data
• Historic balance data

Argus empower our users with the Argus Direct^® online platform to bring to life the data and analysis that we publish, ensuring you have the latest insights at your fingertips. This platform is your starting point for accessing your subscription, allowing you to download proprietary datasets and the pdf publications.