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Southeast Asian oil demand to rise to 2050: IEA
Southeast Asian oil demand to rise to 2050: IEA
Singapore, 22 October (Argus) — Southeast Asia's oil demand is set to increase to 7mn b/d in 2050 under current policies, according to the IEA's latest Southeast Asia Energy Outlook released today. Oil demand in the southeast Asian region is set to rise from 5mn b/d in 2023 to 6.4mn b/d in 2035, and to 7mn b/d in 2050. This is a downward revision from the IEA's previous outlook in 2022, which projected oil demand rising to about 7mn b/d in 2030 and 7.5mn b/d in 2050. The IEA's stated policies scenario (Steps) is based on countries' existing policies, while the announced pledges scenario (APS) assumes that governments meet all their national energy and climate targets, including long-term net zero goals. Under the APS, oil demand continues to grow but to a lesser extent to 5.2mn b/d in 2035, and then falls to 3.8mn b/d in 2050. The transport sector is the main driver of the region's increase in oil demand, with oil consumption in that sector more than doubling from 1.3mn b/d in 2000 to 2.8mn b/d currently. Under current policies and trends, gasoline and diesel consumption for road transport rises by around 30pc by 2050, reaching nearly 1.6mn b/d. The region's gas demand is projected to rise from around 170bn m³ currently, to around 210bn m³ in 2030 and about 270bn m³ in 2050. This compared to the IEA's 2022 projections of 240bn m³ in 2030 and about 340bn m³ in 2050. Gas demand has increased by 5pc since 2022, according to the IEA. This recovery comes after a 4pc fall in demand over 2019-22, resulting from Covid-19 and a rise in LNG prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Overall energy demand is expected to rise by "about a third by 2035 and two-thirds by 2050," according to the IEA, with just under half of this demand growth to be met by fossil fuels. Under the APS, energy demand grows to a smaller extent of around 40pc to 2050, reflecting accelerated improvements in efficiency, electrification and fuel switching. The share of fossil fuels in the total energy mix falls from 78pc currently to 65pc in 2050. This is lower than the 2022 outlook's projection that fossil fuels would make up more than 70pc of the energy mix in 2050. The downward revisions in fossil fuel demand and their share in the energy mix is likely because renewables are set to grow rapidly in the region. Renewable energy already accounts for just under 20pc of the region's energy mix, through hydropower, geothermal and bioenergy. Clean energy is set to meet more than 35pc of energy demand growth to 2035 under the Steps scenario, because of rapid expansions in wind and solar power. IEA's growing presence in southeast Asia The IEA and Singapore inaugurated the IEA Regional Co-operation Centre on 21 October — the first office outside of the organisation's Paris headquarters. The centre will serve as a hub for IEA's activities and engagement in the region, so the organisation can provide policy guidance, technical assistance, training and capacity-building to address areas such as scaling up the deployment of renewables and increasing access to finance for clean energy investments. Southeast Asia is projected to be second only to India in the contribution to global energy demand growth over the coming years, said IEA's chief energy economist Tim Gould on 22 October at the Singapore International Energy Week. This is why the new regional center is so important, he added. Cross-border electricity trade, in particular, is going to be a high priority, Gould said. "A key work, from an IEA perspective, is to make those opportunities to bring in the private sector and different sources of finance for these projects," he added. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Singapore OKs planned 1.75GW Australia power imports
Singapore OKs planned 1.75GW Australia power imports
Singapore, 22 October (Argus) — Singapore's energy regulator Energy Market Authority (EMA) has granted conditional approval to Australian firm Sun Cable to import 1.75GW of low-carbon electricity from Australia into Singapore, EMA said today. The conditional approval "recognises that Sun Cable's [Australia-Asia PowerLink renewable generation and transmission] project can be technically and commercially viable," said Singapore's second minister for trade and industry, Tan See Leng, adding that the approval will facilitate the continued development of Sun Cable's project. Sun Cable's planned commercial operation is expected to be after 2035. Sun Cable will need to validate its technical and commercial plans further to advance the project, as well as secure all requisite approvals from relevant jurisdictions, including countries through which subsea cables will pass. The conditional approval is a step forward in helping Australia "export clean, cheap renewables generated in Australia directly to southeast Asia," said the country's minister for climate change and energy, Chris Bowen on 22 October at the Singapore International Energy Week. The project will be a "meaningful complement to the Asean power grid " when it is completed, Tan added. The project, which involves up to 5.75GW of solar power capacity in Northern Australia and the potential export to Singapore via a 4,300km subsea cable, also received federal environmental approval in August. Low-carbon electricity imports are part of Singapore's overall strategy to decarbonise the power sector, which currently accounts for 40pc of its carbon emissions. EMA is seeking to import around 6GW of low-carbon electricity by 2035. The authority has so far secured 2GW of conditional licences for imports from Indonesia, 3.6GW of conditional approvals comprising 1.4GW from Indonesia, 1GW from Cambodia and 1.2GW from Vietnam . By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Zeg turns to tech to boost RNG
Q&A: Zeg turns to tech to boost RNG
Sao Paulo, 21 October (Argus) — Brazilian biomethane company Zeg Biogas and technology developer W2E Cleantech have teamed up to study new technology to more efficiently generate biogas and biomethane from organic waste. Argus spoke to Zeg chief executive Eduardo Acquaviva about what to expect from the new technologies and the future of the biomethane market after the approval of the fuel of the future bill. What challenges does this new technology address? We launched a new technology and business development partnership with W2E Cleantech, a specialist in solutions for waste treatment. These can control temperature, overcoming limitations of horizontal biodigestors, especially with organic matter that has higher solid content. W2E also brings to the table the biopulp technology, which cuts and separates organic matter allowing the use of more concentrated feedstock and opening more possibilities for types of waste to be digested. How can new technologies contribute to the biomethane sector? The use of these technologies opens new possibilities for biogas generation. We have some other partnerships for the purification of this biogas into biomethane, which opens new possibilities for scaling up production. So, with one of the technologies we use, the minimum volume of biomethane generated is [very high]. Combining technologies, such as membranes and biopulp together with proper management, can also generate biomethane on a smaller scale. This allows the optimization of the investment, because a production project based on a machine that can generate more gas than is needed is not financially feasible. What does Zeg expect now that the "fuel of the future" bill is law? The biggest challenge in this market is to be more competitive as we often will compete with fossil fuels. Optimizing investment and being efficient is what will allow biogas to be a better contender product. By Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Chubu eyes exporting CO2 to Australia for CCS
Japan’s Chubu eyes exporting CO2 to Australia for CCS
Osaka, 21 October (Argus) — Japanese utility Chubu Electric Power is considering exporting CO2 to Australia for carbon capture and storage (CCS), as it accelerates efforts to decarbonise industries surrounding Nagoya port in central Japan. Chubu on 21 October agreed with Japanese upstream firm Inpex's subsidiary Inpex Browse E&P to explore the possibility of establishing a CCS value chain, including capturing CO2 in Japan then transporting it from Nagoya port to Western Australia's offshore Bonaparte basin. Further details, including a timeline and potential export volumes, are still unknown. Inpex in 2022 was awarded a greenhouse gas (GHG) storage assessment permit in the Bonaparte basin, together with TotalEnergies CCS Australia and Australian firm Woodside Energy. Operator Inpex aims to reduce GHG emissions from its Ichthys LNG project through this potential CCS site, which is expected to begin operations in the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year and store more than 10mn t/yr of CO2. Moomba CCS project The deal came after Chubu on 18 October signed an initial agreement with Australian independent Santos, to assess the feasibility on transporting CO2 from Nagoya port to Santos' Moomba CCS project in the onshore Cooper basin of South Australia state. The CCS site has already been commissioned , but it is unclear when Chubu is targeting to export CO2 to the site, which has a full 1.7mn t/yr storage capacity depending on gas production. Details will be decided in future discussions, a Chubu spokesperson said. Chubu and Santos are also planning to study the use of renewable energy, such as geothermal power, to supply energy for other decarbonisation projects in the Copper basin which Santos is developing. Production of hydrogen and synthetic methane, or so-called e-methane, could be such options, the spokesperson told Argus. These are Chubu's first attemmpt to develop CCS projects in Australia, with the company also on course to establish similar CCS value chains between Nagoya port and Indonesia's Tangguh under a collaboration with BP . Diversification of CO2 export destinations would be necessary, as there is a risk to conducting CCS projects only in Indonesia, said the spokesperson. Chubu and BP completed the feasibility study in March and expanded their partnership in August by signing the next-stage agreement to evaluate cost optimisation across the CCS value chain and business models to enable commercial CCS projects. Nagoya is Japan's biggest port by cargo volume and located near steel, automotive, aircraft, machine and manufacturing plants, Chubu previously said. The port aims to reduce its CO2 emissions by 46pc by 2030-31 against 2013-14 levels, as industries around the port account for 3pc of Japan's total emissions, the company added. Japanese firms have intensified their efforts to develop CCS projects, as well as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) projects, actively seeking international partnerships. This is driven by Japan's reliance on fossil fuels to ensure energy security and foster economic growth, which necessitates exporting CO2 because of limited domestic storage sites. Japan's parliament in May allowed the government to ratify the 2009 amendment to the International Maritime Organization's London Protocol that will allow the export of CO2. Japan hopes to commercialise CCS operations that Japanese firms are involved in from 2030-31. But there is growing pressure from the ministry of trade and industry that Japan should accelerate CCS projects, in order to not fall behind in the global market. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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