LPG/NGL
概要
アーガスでは、世界各国のLPGおよびNGLデータサービスを提供しております。当社が提供するLPGデータサービスは、世界で最も支持されているデータサービスの一つであり、日本でも多くの企業様にご活用いただいております。また、世界LPガス協会の年次統計集は2012年からアーガスがその制作を請け負っており、世界主要各国の各種数量統計に加え、各地の国際LPG市場および関連するエネルギー市場動向の総括を発表しております。
アーガス独自の価格インデックスやベンチマークへのアクセス、エキスパートによる業界最新動向の解説、戦略立案に役立つ予想など、透明性・信頼性の高いLPGビジネスインテリジェンスを提供しています。
当社の世界中に点在しているエキスパートチームは、LPG市場の様々な関係者と常に協議を重ね、市場に適した強固なメソドロジーに従い価格をアセスメントしています。当社の価格アセスメントは、サプライチェーン全体の契約に広く利用されており、ICEやCMEを含む取引所に上場されているため、市場全体の価格リスクを管理することができます。
Latest LPG / NGL news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global LPG and NGL's industry.
CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand
CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand
Washington, 17 October (Argus) — Eastern US railroad said it expects that fourth quarter commodity market conditions will be mixed, limiting some freight demand. "Going into the fourth quarter, near-term conditions look modestly more challenging," chief executive Joe Hinrichs said on Wednesday. But the railroad expects "modest volume growth", supported by a few segments including chemicals and agriculture. But lower locomotive fuel prices and the impact of international coking coal prices, which are linked to export rail contracts, could drive a decrease in total revenue during the fourth quarter. He estimated that impact at roughly $200mn compared with last year's fourth quarter revenue of $3.68bn. CSX expects to see a carryover of year-over-year momentum in chemicals, agriculture and food, forest products and minerals, while metals and automotive will continue to be challenged. Demand for metals shipments is predicted to soften through the end of the year. Interest in shipments, particularly steel, is soft because of "sluggish demand, ample supply and low commodity prices", chief commercial officer Kevin Boone said. A weaker-than-anticipated automotive market contributed to the drop in metals demand. Consumer demand for automotive products has been reduced by high retail prices and interest rates, which has led to increased dealer inventories and slower production, Boone said. But CSX expects that an "interest rate easing cycle will help these markets normalize," Boone said. Metals and equipment volume fell in the second quarter, primarily because of lower steel and scrap shipments. Shipments of metals and equipment fell by 9pc to about 64,000 carloads compared with the same three months in 2023. Revenue dropped to $208mn, down by 8pc from a year earlier. Automotive volume dropped in the second quarter because of lower North American vehicle production, CSX said. Automotive traffic fell to 301,000 railcars loaded, down by 2pc from the third quarter 2023. Automotive revenue dropped to $98mn, down by 3pc compared with a year earlier. The outlook for fertilizer shipments is mixed following the third quarter as a decline in long-haul phosphates shipments persisted. Volume was negative, but the railroad was able to haul some profitable spot shipments. Shipments of fertilizer fell to 45,000 carloads in the third quarter, down by 4pc from a year earlier. Fertilizer revenue dropped to $118mn, down by 5pc from a year earlier. CSX expects growth in some market segments. Chemicals freight demand is expected to continue growing following "consistent, broad strength across plastics, industrial chemicals, LPGs, and waste. That demand helped boost chemicals volume by 9pc compared with a year earlier. Chemicals revenue rose to $727mn in the second quarter, up by 13pc compared with a year earlier. Agricultural and food products shipping demand is expected to continue growing, led by demand for grain and feed ingredients from the Midwest for supplies. That follows a third quarter when higher ethanol shipments, as well as increased overall volume helped raise volume by 9pc from the third quarter of 2023. Revenue from shipping agricultural and food products rose to $416mn, up by 11pc from a year earlier. CSX expects intermodal growth to continue with the trucking market falling, which would help drive more container freight to rail. Intermodal shipments are goods shipped in containers and trailers between different modes of transportation. The 1-3 October strike by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) did impact intermodal traffic, but the railroad was pleased with the "relatively quick short-term solution", Boone said. International intermodal volume during the third quarter rose because of higher east-coast port traffic. Domestic volume was mostly flat. Overall intermodal volume during the quarter increased by 3pc compared with a year earlier. But lower revenue per container helped reduce total intermodal revenue by 2pc to $509mn. CSX does not expect a major shift in coal volume through the end of the year as coal markets seem relatively stable and utility stockpiles are sufficient, Boone said. Rising natural gas prices are also unlikely to stimulate a "near-term step-up in volumes". Export coal demand has been consistent lately, particularly from buyers in Asia. But revenue per railcar for export coal could make a modest single digit drop, as contracts are tied to international coal benchmarks and prices fell earlier this year. Expport coal voume rose to 11.1mn short tons (10.1mn metric tonnes) in the second quarter on higher demand for thermal and coking coal. But domestic coal deliveries fell to 10.2mn st, down by 12pc from a year earlier, on lower deliveries to power plants and lake and river terminals. Rail coal volume fell by 2pc from a year earlier, while revenue dropped by 7pc to 553mn st. Total CSX profits rose to $894mn, up by 8pc compared with third quarter 2023. Revenue increased to $3.6bn, up by 1pc. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran's resilient LPG exports face growing threat
Iran's resilient LPG exports face growing threat
Little is known about what might happen next, but an Israeli attack on Iran is likely to be imminent, write Frances Goh, Ieva Paldaviciute and Matt Scotland Singapore, 15 October (Argus) — Iran's missile attack against Israel at the start of this month has placed the former country's energy exports under threat, as Israel and its ally the US still weigh retaliatory action while trying to avoid all-out war. This includes Iranian LPG trade — done largely on a covert basis with Chinese buyers — which has continued to thrive this year despite intensifying US scrutiny. US president Joe Biden held a call with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 9 October to discuss Israel's response to Iran's attack. This includes the possibility of striking oil and gas facilities, Biden said on 3 October. Little is known about what might come next, but Israel's defence minister Yoav Gallant said after the call that its attack on Iran would be "deadly, precise and above all surprising". The escalation in the region had little impact on oil prices given the lack of any effect on physical supplies until 7 October, at the one-year anniversary of the attack by Gaza-based Hamas militants on Israel, when Ice Brent crude rose above $81/bl. But this could change if Israel makes good on its threat to directly target Iranian oil infrastructure and, especially, if Iran retaliates with indiscriminate attacks on oil tankers and infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf. The threat for the LPG market is lower than it is for crude, but if Israel were to target Iran's gas processing plants or the two refineries in Bandar Abbas — PGS and Bandar Abbas — which yield over 20pc of the country's refinery LPG, the ramifications could still be substantial, consultancy FGE's Middle East managing director Iman Nasseri says. Iran's three LPG terminals could also theoretically be attacked, preventing the country's seaborne exports, but "I doubt they will be", he says. Iran's LPG production and exports have surged in spite of US sanctions over the past four years . Exports increased to nearly 7.9mn t in January-September from just under 7.8mn t a year earlier, Kpler data show, with significant recent growth stalled by heavy maintenance at the giant South Pars field. Iran's deliveries to south China rose to 5.4mn t from 5mn t, according to Kpler. Iran's LPG exports stood at around 802,000t in September, Kpler data show. But market participants estimate them to have been closer to 900,000-1mn t. This is because of the difficulty in tracking vessels loading and shipping from the country. Iran's buoyant LPG trade is also unlikely to be disrupted by tightening US sanctions or the potential return of Donald Trump as US president "unless gas processing plants or terminals are destroyed", Nasseri says. Iran's LPG cargo availability improved this month after the completion of maintenance, pressuring prices at the same time as other Mideast Gulf suppliers' availability fell and values rose . But this did little to boost sales in a quiet market because Chinese buyers were away for the Golden Week holiday over 1-7 October. Chinese demand for Iranian LPG appears to have shrunk anyway on waning margins at the former country's ethylene cracker and propane dehydrogenation plants given high outright prices . Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
China’s cracker expansion to drive LPG storage growth
China’s cracker expansion to drive LPG storage growth
The addition of ethylene crackers will further drive LPG storage capacity expansion following strong growth in recent years Shanghai, 2 October (Argus) — China's LPG storage capacity is expected to expand again in 2025 after it continued to grow in 2024, the latest Global LPG Storage Survey finds. But whereas the expansion of the past five years has been driven by the country's investment in propane dehydrogenation (PDH) projects, next year's increase is supported by facilities built to serve new ethylene steam crackers. China's PDH capacity reached 22.6mn t/yr by the end of September, up 237pc from 6.7mn t/yr at the end of 2019. This has necessitated a significant increase in propane imports as well as domestic refrigerated LPG storage capacity for VLGC deliveries, which rose 159pc to 5.7mn t from 2.2mn t. The number of import terminals that can be served by VLGCs has grown to 41 from 23 since 2019. China's PDH expansion is expected to slow next year owing to sustained negative production margins. Yet the country's LPG storage capacity is yet again on course to rise, by 330,000t to 6.1mn t, backed by projects tied to new crackers. Domestic petrochemical producers believe LPG will be more competitive than naphtha in terms of cost over the long term, and are consequently building crackers designed to use the feedstock, including ExxonMobil's 1.6mn t/yr cracker in Huizhou, and BASF's 1mn t/yr cracker in Zhanjiang. Ethane imported from the US is likely to be even more competitive than LPG or naphtha, resulting in a crop of new ethane-fed cracker projects as well as conversions of existing units, supporting the development of ethane import terminals and storage capacity. Huatai Shengfu's 600,000 t/yr cracker in Ningbo will switch one of its propane furnaces to ethane use by the end of this year, converting its VLGC terminal into an ethane dedicated one. The 320,000 b/d Shenghong Petrochemical and 800,000 b/d Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical integrated refineries also plan to develop new ethane terminals in the medium term. China's ethane storage capacity is forecast to rise by 320,000t to 760,000t by the end of 2025 as a result. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
NWE imports of US LPG surge in 3Q but winter bearish
NWE imports of US LPG surge in 3Q but winter bearish
Downstream demand is unlikely to pick up, with concerns around an oversupplied market also weighing on sentiment, writes Efcharis Sgourou London, 1 October (Argus) — Northwest Europe's imports of LPG from the US rose sharply in the third quarter as regional demand unexpectedly firmed during the summer off-season. And arrivals are likely to drop this winter, contrary to typical seasonal patterns. The region imported around 580,000t of US LPG in September, the second-largest monthly volume this year after August's 592,000t, Argus estimates. This lifted arrivals to 1.74mn t during the third quarter, the highest since late 2022 and nearly a third up from 1.34mn t in the second quarter. The increase in import demand came as a result of regional supplies falling significantly during maintenance season in the North Sea, in particular at Norway's Karsto, Kollsness and Nyhamna gas processing plants. Some earlier-than-expected demand for stockbuilding prior to winter then led to prompt buyers on the spot market raising their bids in order to attract US LPG cargoes, in turn bolstering the price of cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) propane large cargoes, which rose to their highest against front-month Ice Brent crude in more than a year. The spread between northwest European propane import prices and northeast Asian equivalents under the Argus Far East Index (AFEI) started to narrow towards the end of the third quarter, with the cif ARA discount reaching a little under $50/t compared with over $100/t in June and May. And although the transatlantic arbitrage was largely shut from July onwards, a few narrow periodic openings allowed European buyers to compete with Asia for US cargoes. Looking to the fourth quarter, spot buying interest for large cargo deliveries in the first half of October looks relatively firm but downstream demand is likely to remain static rather than picking up as temperatures fall. European ethylene steam cracker demand is also unlikely to grow as although run rates improved over the past few months, they are yet to fully recover from recent lows. Propane has been at a steep discount to naphtha from March until May at below -$150/t, supporting demand from flexible crackers. But it has narrowed significantly since, the spread rising above -$50/t in late August — the tightest since February 2023 — and standing at -$66/t by 25 September, curbing buying interest from the sector. The spread could widen marginally in the final quarter but it may not be able to incentivise more demand. The Karsto processing plant's return to full operations from late September and most other North Sea works coming to a close, as well as an anticipated light turnaround schedule for the region's refineries, will increase northwest European supply in the fourth quarter and decrease the dependency on imports of US LPG. Concerns the supply might overshoot demand has weighed on spot market sentiment in Europe, with October cif ARA propane swaps standing at $583/t on 24 September, compared with $569.50/t for December paper — an unusual backwardated structure into one of the peak months in terms of demand. The backwardation — prompt prices at a premium to later ones — is less indicative of prompt market bullishness and more a reflection of weak sentiment towards the end of the year. Heavy Asian stockpiling Sentiment in Asia-Pacific is also weak, with the AFEI forward structure in backwardation of around $5-7/t between October and December. This is largely a result of heavy stockpiling in Asia during the third quarter that has weighed on paper prices. Meanwhile, front-month US prices at the US Gulf coast hub of Mont Belvieu have traded at discounts to December prices given concerns over exports during the fourth quarter. The price of US Gulf coast fob cargoes jumped to 25¢/USG premiums to Mont Belvieu prompt prices in September from 12¢/USG in June and 9¢/USG in May, an indication that export terminals are nearing capacity. Planned expansions of some of the key terminals are not due to start up until 2025 and 2026. NWE imports of US LPG NWE propane vs Ice Brent crude NWE, NE Asia propane forward curves Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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