LPG / NGL
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Production shutdowns in Mideast Gulf hit 10mn b/d: IEA
Production shutdowns in Mideast Gulf hit 10mn b/d: IEA
London, 12 March (Argus) — The war in the Middle East and disruptions to exports through the strait of Hormuz has led to the shut in of at least 10mn b/d of liquids production, the IEA estimates. In its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR), published today, the agency said supply losses are concentrated in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and that reductions will increase in the absence of a rapid resumption in shipping flows. Iran's retaliations to air strikes by the US and Israel on 28 February has effectively halted oil and gas flows through the strait of Hormuz. Production losses in the region include about 8mn b/d of crude and 2mn b/d of condensates and NGLs, the IEA said, with around 3mn b/d of refining capacity also closed. "Shut-in upstream production will take weeks and, in some cases, months, to return to pre-crisis levels depending on the degree of field complexity and the timing for workers, equipment and resources to return to the region," the agency said. The IEA said there is limited scope for producers outside the Middle East to offset the supply losses. "Given the right signals" an additional 380,000 b/d of US shale output could be brought online by the end of the year, it said, and a postponement to spring maintenance in Canadian oil sands could add 150,000 b/d of incremental supply over the second quarter. The supply losses from the Mideast Gulf have prompted the agency to sharply reduce its 2026 global liquids supply growth projection by 1.28mn b/d to 1.11mn b/d, with all this coming from non-Opec+ sources. It said the main impact of the losses would be felt by Asian importers, particularly India. On demand, the agency reduced its oil consumption growth forecast for March and April by more than 1mn b/d and for 2026 by 210,000 b/d to 640,000 b/d. It said flight cancellations in the Middle East have materially reduced jet fuel consumption, while the loss of LPG and naphtha supplies from the region had forced petrochemical plants to slash production. Generally higher oil prices and a worsening economic outlook are also likely to curb oil demand, the IEA said. The world has significant amounts of oil in storage to bridge the temporary losses, the IEA said, with global observed inventories at the highest level in five years at more than 8.2bn bl. IEA member countries have agreed to make 400mn bl of emergency reserves available to offset supply losses, but the agency said stocks only provided a stop-gap measure."Adequate insurance mechanisms and physical protection for shipping" are key to the resumption of oil flows through the strait of Hormuz, it said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India races to secure LPG as shortages grow
India races to secure LPG as shortages grow
Singapore, 11 March (Argus) — With the clock ticking and supplies dwindling after LPG exports from the Mideast Gulf were choked at the strait of Hormuz, India is scrambling to secure emergency cargoes. The country faces an imminent LPG shortage: it holds stocks covering only around 10 days, and imports have slowed to a trickle since the 28 February outbreak of conflict, leaving the government to confront an urgent supply crisis. India imported nearly 21mn t of LPG through the straits in 2025 — the equivalent of roughly 40 VLGC cargoes each month — data from Kpler show, underscoring the scale of exposure to this key chokepoint. As many as 60pc of restaurants could shut within 2-3 days if commercial LPG cylinder deliveries are not restored, the National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) warned. Around 85pc of the country's restaurants rely on commercial LPG as their primary cooking fuel. Authorities have attempted to curb the fallout by ramping up domestic LPG production, restricting sales to commercial customers, and imposing a 25-day minimum interval between domestic cylinder bookings. But these stopgap measures have provided only limited relief. New Delhi, led by prime minister Narendra Modi, has reportedly secured 1mn t of LPG from the US to help bridge the supply shortfall, market participants said, although the delivery timeline remains unclear. Meanwhile, Indian state-owned companies have snapped up evenly split shipments of around 46,000t for mid-March to first-half April delivery at premiums of $350-400/t to the April CP, traders said, to meet immediate demand. Before the near suspension of flows through the strait of Hormuz, a similar March-delivery cargo would have fetched only $30-40/t. Shipments for the second-half April were procured at April CP +$280/t, reflecting the steep premiums buyers are now paying to secure prompt cargoes. With supply from its nearest source disrupted, Indian importers have widened their search for alternative suppliers. The MGC Astor is en route to Haldia after loading at Bahia Blanca, Kpler data show, while another two similar shipments loading from the US and possibly Argentina for April delivery into India had reportedly been secured. Smaller parcels for second-half April delivery into South Asia were marketed at $145-165/t against the April CP, traders said. India's domestic LPG production meets close to 40pc of national demand, underscoring its heavy reliance on imported supply — now severely disrupted. By Frances Goh and Rituparna Ghosh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
NWE propane swaps rebound as Hormuz risks persist
NWE propane swaps rebound as Hormuz risks persist
London, 11 March (Argus) — European propane paper rebounded on Wednesday morning as renewed security incidents near the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten global LPG supply chains. Early on Wednesday, two vessels operating near the strait were reportedly attacked — a reminder of the conflict's impacts on the markets even though Washington offered reinsurance earlier this week that it would end soon. Northwest European propane paper for April was trading around $625/t on Wednesday morning, about $17/t higher than at the close on Tuesday, 10 March, recovering some of the steep losses recorded in the previous session. The paper market shed 7-8pc, or roughly $50–60/t on 10 March, tracking a decline in crude futures values, after US president Donald Trump suggested the US-Iran war could end sooner than expected. The equivalent Asia-Pacific propane paper contract was up by $24/t in early Wednesday trading to around $703/t, after dropping by about $55/t by Tuesday's close. Prompt global LPG markets are gripping with extreme volatility. European buyers do not rely on Iranian LPG supply, but the conflict in the Middle East and the de-facto closure of the strait of Hormuz is threatening to disrupt close to 30pc of global seaborne LPG exports. Any prolonged disruption will tighten global supplies and force buyers to raise bids to secure the remaining available cargoes. Each day that the strait remains closed holds up around 100,000t or more of LPG supply from the global market. In Europe, prompt bids and overall discussions for large cargoes appear to be shifting toward April dates, as there is too much uncertainty for March. This is reflected in the March-April paper backwardation, which is hovering around $90/t, one of the steepest gap in fourteen years. The last time the spread was near $100/t was in March 2012, when the Eurozone was grappling with a debt crisis. By Efcharis Sgourou Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Aramco readies for restart refinery targeted by drones
Aramco readies for restart refinery targeted by drones
Dubai, 10 March (Argus) — Saudi Arabia's biggest refinery, Ras Tanura, is being readied for start-up after it was shut around a week ago following an Iranian drone strike, state-controlled Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser said on Tuesday. The 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery was targeted by Iranian drones twice in three days ꟷ once on 2 March, and then on 4 March. The refinery was taken offline after the first attack, as "a precautionary measure", Nasser said. The energy ministry at the time said the facility had sustained "limited damage" after "debris from the interception of two drones in the vicinity" fell on it. Supply of products to markets was unaffected, it said. "We have a clear procedure to ensure safe operation, and we are in the process of starting it back up," Nasser said today. He did not say how soon it would be back online. Ras Tanura accounts for around 16pc of Saudi Arabia's 3.4mn b/d of crude refining capacity. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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