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Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low
Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low
Mexico City, 9 January (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 4.21pc in December, the lowest in nearly four years, as slowing agricultural prices offset increases in energy, consumer goods and services. This marks the lowest annual inflation since February 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. Inflation slowed from 4.55pc in November, marking four months of declines in the past five months. It closed 2024 below the December 2023 reading of 4.66pc, as CPI continues to cool from its peak of 8.7pc in August/September 2022at the height of the global inflation crisis. The December headline rate slightly exceeded Mexican bank Banorte's 4.15pc forecast but aligned with its consensus estimate. Following the results, Banorte revised its end-2025 inflation projection to 4pc from 4.4pc and its core inflation estimate to 3.6pc from 3.7pc. The bank suggested that the data supports the possibility of earlier cuts in 2025 in the central bank's target rate, currently at 10pc. Citi Mexico's January survey of 32 analysts estimated a target rate of 8.50pc by the end of 2025, with the next cut of 25 basis points expected at the next central bank policy meeting on 25 February. The central bank is targeting annual CPI of 2-4pc. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.65pc in December from 3.58pc in November, marking the first uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration, according to Mexico's statistics agency (Inegi). Services inflation sped up to 4.94pc from 4.9pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.47pc from 2.4pc. Agricultural inflation moved to 6.57pc from 10.74pc in November, supported by favorable weather conditions. Banorte noted that the developing La Nina phenomenon could significantly impact meat prices in the coming months. Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 5.73pc in December from 5.25pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. The industrial association Coparmex called for a review of Mexico's LPG pricing model, citing risks to supply and distribution. Electricity inflation decelerated sharply to 2.65pc from 22pc in November, reflecting the end of seasonal summer subsidies, while natural gas prices fell 5.67pc year over year. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US physical trade in ethane, propane, rose in 2024
US physical trade in ethane, propane, rose in 2024
Houston, 9 January (Argus) — Growing natural gas liquids (NGL) production in the US last year led to higher volumes of physical trading for ethane and propane in 2024, according to Argus data. Volumes of physical ethane traded at the Enterprise (EPC) storage cavern in Texas surged last year by 43pc to 90.12mn bl from 63.2mn bl in 2023, according to trades recorded by Argus . The gains in physical in-well trading activity at Mont Belvieu, the world's largest storage hub for the feedstock, came even as spot ethane prices fell in 2024 to an average of 19.03¢/USG, down from 24.59¢/USG the previous year, on the back of production gains and weaker prices for natural gas. US ethane production from gas processing averaged 2.8mn b/d in the first 10 months of 2024, up from 2.64mn b/d during the same period in 2023, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Gains in US ethane production come amid growing demand from petrochemical buyers in China and Europe, which has bolstered US ethane exports and led to additional investments by both Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer in additional dock capacity for the feedstock. US ethane exports averaged 478,800 b/d in the first 10 months of 2024, down by 1.8pc from 487,600 b/d in 2023, due in part to loading delays associated with tie-in work for additional refrigeration at Gulf coast facilities. But exports in January-October 2024 were up by 17pc from the same period in 2022 on additional term contracts with international ethylene producers. Higher trading volumes in 2024 were not limited to ethane. Physical in-well trading of propane at Energy Transfer's LST storage cavern in Mont Belvieu rose by 30pc to 44.7mn bl in 2024, and in-well trading of propane at Enterprise's EPC storage cavern rose by 19pc to 68.3mn bl in 2024 versus 2023, according to trades recorded by Argus . US propane production from gas processing averaged 2.13mn b/d in January-October 2024, according to the latest available EIA data, up from 2mn b/d during the same period in 2023. LST and EPC propane prices rose in 2024 versus 2023 alongside increases in crude. Prompt-month LST propane averaged 77.12¢/USG during 2024, up from 71.13¢/USG in 2023. EPC propane averaged 77.63¢/USG in 2024, up from 70.83¢/USG in 2023. Argus publishes volume-weighted averages of physical trading at Mont Belvieu in addition to daily ranges. Ethane's traded midpoint averaged a 0.009¢/USG premium over the volume-weighted average in 2024. LST propane's traded range averaged a 0.037¢/USG discount to the volume-weighted average, and EPC propane's traded midpoint averaged a 0.143¢/USG discount to the volume-weighted average last year. By Amy Strahan Physical trading '000 bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Canadian propane exports poised to rise
Viewpoint: Canadian propane exports poised to rise
Calgary, 31 December (Argus) — Canadian propane exports to Asia are expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by increased export capacity and natural gas liquids (NGL) production, as producers ramp up drilling to meet rising demand ahead of the LNG Canada export facility start up. Propane and butane exports from Canada to Asia average about 153,000 b/d in the third quarter of 2024. AltaGas exported 128,272 b/d of propane and butane to Asia during the quarter, with about 50,000 b/d leaving its Ferndale, Washington, terminal and 70,000 b/d from the Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal (RIPET) in British Columbia (BC). Additional exports came from Pembina's 25,000 b/d propane export terminal at Watson Island near Prince Rupert, BC. Midstream operators are investing in an additional 70,000 b/d of propane and butane export capacity in the next few years. AltaGas is advancing the construction of its Ridley Island Energy Export Facility (REEF) adjacent to RIPET, which will have an export capacity of 55,000 b/d in its first stage, potentially operational by 2028. Pembina is also considering a 15,000 b/d expansion of its propane export terminal, but a final investment decision (FID) has not yet been made. Another potential increase in export capacity could come if Trigon Terminals repurposes its 18mn t/yr coal export terminal on Ridley Island for NGL exports. There has been no FID on this project, and the company is in litigation with the Prince Rupert Port Authority (PRPA) over export rights. If approved, the project could be operational by 2028, according to the company. The growth in export capacity is driven by rising natural gas production, stemming from expectations of increased LNG exports from Canada. The 14mn t/yr LNG Canada export terminal began commissioning in late August and is expected to start shipping LNG cargoes by mid-2025. Located in Kitimat, BC, it is only 120km from the country's Pacific coast LPG export hub near Prince Rupert. Another LNG facility under construction is the 2.1mn t/yr Woodfibre LNG export terminal near Squamish, BC, north of Vancouver. This joint venture between Canadian midstream operator Enbridge and Singapore-based Pacific Energy is expected to be completed in 2027. Additionally, the Indigenous Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline reached a final investment decision for their 3.3mn t/yr Cedar LNG floating facility in Kitimat, which is set to open in late 2028. Fractionation capacity also grows The increase in natural gas production will result in higher NGL output, with about 90pc of Canada's NGL production coming from natural gas. This has driven increased demand for fractionation services in western Canada. Keyera plans to debottleneck its second fractionation unit at Keyera Fort Saskatchewan (KFS) in Alberta, adding 8,000 b/d of capacity to the existing 66,000 b/d. Keyera expects to make a final decision early next year, with potential completion by late 2026. The company has also secured customer backing to build a third KFS fractionator, which it hopes to commission in 2028. Pembina continues to advance its 55,000 b/d Redwater IV fractionation facility at its Redwater complex (RFS) in Alberta, which is expected to be online in the first half of 2026. Currently, RFS has three fractionators with a total capacity of 210,000 b/d. Calgary-based Wolf Midstream reached an FID in July to build phase two of its NGL North complex, which will include a 90,000 b/d fractionation facility, including 60,000 b/d of ethane capacity. Canadian propane exports increased to 64.9mn bl in January-October, compared with 58.7mn bl during the same period in 2023. By Yulia Golub Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: US LPG exports to LatAm poised to grow
Viewpoint: US LPG exports to LatAm poised to grow
Houston, 30 December (Argus) — US LPG exports to Latin America are expected to rise in 2025 because of ongoing efforts by governments to transition low-income residences away from cooking with firewood. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates in 2023 more than 70mn consumers across Latin America lacked access to clean cooking fuel. Industry groups promote the use of LPG as an alternative to firewood owing it its lower emissions and ease of transport into remote regions unable to be served by electricity or natural gas. Much of the LPG consumed in Latin America is imported from the US, and US exports to the region stood at around 10.6mn metric tonnes (t) from January to mid-December 2024, already surpassing the 10.48mn t shipped from the US in 2023, according to data from commodity tracking firm Vortexa. The largest demand center for US LPG in Latin America was Mexico, accounting for 35pc of US shipments to the region, down by 2.2 percentage points from 2023. The Dominican Republic accounted for 12pc of shipments, Ecuador 11pc, and Chile took 9pc. Brazil was among countries seeing the largest increase in its share of US LPG supplies, rising by 2.6 percentage points to 8.7pc this year. The Brazilian government is working to expand subsidies for LPG, also known as cooking fuel, by another 20mn low-income households next year. If the bill is passed, the measure could increase Brazil's LPG consumption from 7.6mn t to 7.7mn t next year. An estimated 5.4mn households currently benefit from the existing LPG subsidy program. LPG restrictions in Brazil — which limit the use of LPG in saunas, pool heating, commercial boilers, and as autogas in vehicles — may soon change, under a measure under consideration by Brazil's hydrocarbons regulator, ANP . Brazilian LPG association Sindigas expects a 5pc boost to LPG demand in the next five years if restrictions on commercial uses are lifted. The prospect of additional LPG demand in Brazil has already spurred investments in new infrastructure, including two new import and distribution terminals. Brazilian LPG distributor Copa Energia is part of a consortium of companies investing in a new 71,000t LPG storage facility in Suape on the country's northeast coast. Brazilian fuel distributor Ultrapar has also applied to antitrust regulators to build a new LPG terminal in Pecem port, in northeastern Ceara state, with 62,000t of storage, tentatively planned for operations in 2028. In Colombia, LPG import are also forecast to grow, largely due to its own diminishing production at Ecopetrol's Cusiana and Cupiagua fields. Colombia's LPG imports are forecast to increase to an average of 22,000 t/month in 2025, based on demand growth of 0.6pc per year, up from the average 6,900 t/month imported in January-June, Gasnova president Alejandro Martinez told Argus earlier this year. Colombia, like neighboring Brazil, is gearing up to accommodate growing demand. LPG distributor Colgas has started building a terminal at the existing 16,000 t/month Okianus port in Cartagena, scheduled to be ready in late 2025. Canadian oil company Frontera and Chilean LPG supplier Gasco plan to build a $50mn-$60mn LPG terminal at the Caribbean port of Puerto Bahia, which will include 20,400t of storage capacity and will be able to offload two very large gas carriers (VLGCs) a month. In Guatemala, Mexico's Grupo Tomza subsidiary Tropigas opened a new 1.3mn USG (31,000 bl) LPG storage and distribution facility in Escuintla in November to accommodate growing demand in the region and mitigate logistical disruptions. The Planta Palin facility in Escuintla comprises 20 storage tanks for propane and butane, and will be supplied from seaborne shipments arriving at Guatemala's Santo Tomas and Honduras' Omoa ports. Latin American LPG importers may also benefit from expanding dock capacity in the US. Both Enterprise and Energy Transfer projects are expected to add a combined 550,000 b/d of LPG export capacity out of Houston and Nederland, Texas, by the end of 2026. Enterprise's new Neches River terminal project near Beaumont, Texas, will add another 360,000 b/d of either ethane or propane export capacity. The US projects will ease tight dock capacity and the premiums for spot cargoes of propane and butane at the US Gulf coast are expected to wane by the end of 2025, incentivizing buyers in Latin America to purchase more US sourced LPG supplies. The curve ball Yet US LPG exports to Latin America could be stymied by growing supplies from Argentina, home to the prolific Vaca Muerta shale formation that holds an estimated 308 trillion cf of shale gas. Natural gas production in Argentina increased to 138mn m³/d in October, up from 130mn m³/d a year earlier, according to the latest Argentinian government data. Argentina exported 591,000t of LPG from January to mid-December, with nearly 85pc of it routed to Brazil. But Argentina also exports LPG to Brazil by tanker truck, which could also weigh on seaborne arrivals. By Giovann Rosales Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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