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Japan’s Mol commissions new VLGC for TotalEnergies
Japan’s Mol commissions new VLGC for TotalEnergies
Tokyo, 6 February (Argus) — Japanese shipping firm Mitsui OSK Lines (Mol) has commissioned a new very large gas carrier (VLGC) for French refiner TotalEnergies to deliver LPG and ammonia, Mol announced today. Mol has delivered the 88,000 m³ Energia Grandeur from South Korean shipbuilder Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries' Mokpo shipyard on 29 January. Mol signed a charter agreement with TotalEnergies' shipping arm CSSA, although the charter period is undisclosed. The VLGC can use LPG as a bunker fuel from a cargo tank because the LPG fuel tank is connected to a cargo tank. It is possible to reduce more than 90pc of sulphur oxides and more than 20pc of CO2 when the vessel uses LPG as a marine fuel compared with conventional fuel oil, Mol said. Japan is currently importing about 10mn t of LPG from overseas to cover 11.5mn t of domestic demand, according to the Japan LPG Association. Meti expects the downward trend will be driven further by technology innovation and highly efficient equipment which can cut users' consumption volumes. But Japan expects demand for ammonia as a fuel to increase to 3mn t/yr by 2030 and to 30mn t/yr by 2050. Japan has set a goal of a 20pc ammonia co-firing rate at domestic coal-fired power generation plants by 2030 and above 50pc by 2050 to achieve the country's 2050 decarbonisation goal. By Reina Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey
Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey
Mexico City, 3 February (Argus) — Private-sector analysts raised Mexico's 2026 GDP growth outlook in the central bank's January survey, as forecasts adjust to data last week showing stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate rose to 1.3pc from 1.15pc in the mid-December survey, while the 2027 outlook edged down to 1.8pc from 1.85pc. Mexico's economy expanded by 1.6pc in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, led by solid expansion in the agriculture sector and more modest growth in the industrial and services sectors. Growth prospects for 2026 and 2027 hinge on a timely and successful renewal of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement, scheduled to conclude in July, multiple market sources told Argus . Optimism around the talks is reflected in the survey's quarterly breakdown, which projects 2026 GDP growth accelerating to 1.54pc in the third quarter from 1.1pc in the second quarter. Public security remained the top perceived risk to short-term GDP growth, widening its lead over foreign trade concerns, with both risks receiving at least twice as many responses as other factors cited in the survey. Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly higher in the January survey, moving to 3.95pc from 3.88pc in December. The estimate for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged from the previous survey at 3.75pc. Annual inflation slowed to 3.69pc in December — the lowest December reading since 2020 — from 3.8pc in November, driven by easing agricultural and energy prices and some moderation in core inflation. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 4.33pc from 4.43pc, though it remained above the central bank's 4pc upper target for an eighth consecutive month. The central bank cut the target rate to 7pc on 18 December from 10pc at the start of 2025, with analysts expecting the tightening cycle to end this year and the rate to close 2026 at 6.5pc. The bank's next monetary policy decision is scheduled for 5 February. Analysts also strengthened their peso forecast, projecting an end-2026 exchange rate of Ps18.50/$1, compared with Ps19.23/$1 in the previous survey. The end-2027 forecast moved to Ps19.00/$1 from Ps19.45/$1. The US dollar weakened roughly 4pc against the peso over the last month, trading at Ps17.26/$1 on 3 February compared with Ps17.9/$1 on 3 January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Venezuela to resume LPG exports despite scarce supply
Venezuela to resume LPG exports despite scarce supply
Any sustained recovery in exports is unlikely without investment to increase production, write Efcharis Sgourou and Carlos Camacho London, 3 February (Argus) — Venezuela has exported its first seaborne LPG cargo since March 2023, marking its tentative return to the market following interim president Delcy Rodriguez's announcement on 20 January that the country has signed a new LPG export contract. But Venezuela is unlikely to make a meaningful return to global LPG trade without significant investment and appears to be relying on supplies meant to serve its already deprived domestic market. The midsize carrier Chrysopigi Lady arrived at the Jose Antonio terminal at Jose port to collect 21,700t on 29 January, and it is due to arrive at the US east coast port of Providence on 7 February, the latest data from trade analytics platform Kpler show. The terminal at Providence, operated by US firm Blackline Midstream, routinely imports smaller shipments during the winter to shore up stocks owing to a lack of pipeline connectivity in New England state. It received around 44,000t in 2025 and 31,000t in 2024. The next Venezuelan export will be on the Sylvie , which is due to load 19,200t at Jose for export on 6 February, Kpler data show. No destination is given but Japanese firm Itochu is tagged as the buyer. The resumption of exports comes after the US administration captured president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January and pledged to revive Venezuela's oil industry. US sanctions and a lack of investment in ageing infrastructure have severely constrained its LPG sector, culminating in a substantive loss of exports since around 2018 and chronic domestic shortages . A lack of supply domestically has led the US to issue sanctions waivers since 2021 , enabling US companies to ship LPG to Venezuela — although ship-tracking data show no trade in this direction. The Jose Antonio terminal has shipped LPG domestically to other seaborne terminals in recent years, mainly on Handysize vessels and to a lesser degree on smaller pressurised vessels as of last year. Such deliverers stood at 717,000t last year, up from 518,000t in 2024, Kpler data show. Venezuela is unlikely to be ready to resume significant and sustained exports of LPG. The country can manage a few spot shipments but the last meaningful exports from Venezuela were made more than 10 years ago, when production peaked, local industry experts say. Domestic LPG production reached a high of around 189,000 b/d (5.9mn t/yr) in 1999, when Hugo Chavez became president. This has now fallen to 50,000-80,000 b/d, industry data show — no government figures are available. Venezuela may have prepared to restart LPG exports based on a long-held view that a protracted conflict with the US was imminent, a source at natural gas association AVPG says. To do so, the country appears to be redirecting what limited supplies it still produces away from the domestic market. The government has around 800,000 bl of LPG stored at Jose port, the AVPG source says. But "Venezuela does not produce enough LPG to cover its domestic market let alone sustain exports", they say. LPG cylinder distribution for the residential market was nationalised 20 years ago under Chavez. Availability has since declined, and corruption is a problem. Families now receive around 8 kg/month of LPG compared with 18 kg/month, or two 10kg cylinders, in 2010-15, the AVPG source says. "Venezuelans are making do with less LPG — by cooking less or by using electric stoves or even firewood." Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Targa, BW LPG discuss market resilience
Q&A: Targa, BW LPG discuss market resilience
Singapore, 3 February (Argus) — US midstream firm Targa Resources and shipowner BW LPG are two leading participants in the global LPG industry, the former providing a significant share of supply and loading capacity from the US that many of the latter's vessels collect and ship to core importing markets. Argus' David Appleton spoke with Targa senior vice-president Rob Donaldson and BW LPG chief executive Kristian Sorensen on stage at the Argus Middle East LPG Forum in Abu Dhabi on 15 January to get their take on the challenges the industry faced last year, and on other market trends: How were your respective segments of the LPG supply chain affected by the disruptive events experienced last year? Sorensen (BW LPG): We had four major geopolitical and market events last year that affected both freight and underlying commodity markets. The first in April was the retaliatory tariffs that China imposed on US LPG, which essentially halted US-China and US-Asia flows overnight. We ended a Friday with rates at $40,000-45,000/d, and by the following Wednesday they were down to $8,000/d — a dramatic collapse in just a few days. We took a deep breath in the office and, based on our view that LPG is a supply-driven commodity market, knew it would eventually start moving again at one point... but we didn't know how long freight would sit at $8,000–10,000/d or how long US exports to China and Asia would be halted. But about 10 days later, the market was active again and rates were back in the mid-$40,000s and climbing. This market is phenomenal at adjusting to geopolitics, where it can reprice itself within a week. Freight took the first hit, then the terminals and US prices. Once prices recalibrated, you're suddenly back in the game, with Middle Eastern players stepping in and Japanese and South Korean buyers returning. The US Trade Representative's port fees on China-linked vessels, retaliatory Chinese port fees on US vessels, the 10-day Iran-Israel war , and [state-controlled] Saudi Aramco's repricing of its October contract price also had significant impacts. But every time, the market bounced back within a couple of weeks. And that shows how resilient the market is. Donaldson (Targa): The days of simple market behaviour and the days of LPG being under the radar are long gone. I'm always an optimist — I do believe the market eventually works itself out. That said, the challenges in 2025 were substantial, and it's taking longer for issues to work through the supply chain. In the US, we have a tremendous amount of storage and that gives us a buffer against global supply and demand swings. We've also had a tremendous amount of investment in shipping, with more on the way. And when something hits the market, like the tariff war, the vessels don't stop. They keep coming, they keep lifting cargoes, and the volumes keep moving, which is what we experienced at our docks. On the US production side, especially in the Permian basin, we continue to see impressive efficiency improvements, reinforcing that this is a supply-driven market as our producers remain active. The tonnes traded on the water today compared with 15 years ago are completely different, and prices under $600/t in the east support adoption. There are some great initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia to get LPG into homes for clean cooking, which will take time but should be very positive for all of us. It's been interesting to watch how the market responded to the unprecedented challenges we faced in 2025. I know there was pain in this room. We were hoping it would be a nice, easy market under US president Donald Trump's second administration — anything but. We should expect the remainder of his term to bring more unanticipated dynamics. I do believe the market will respond. Does the growth in US export capacity create concerns of overcapacity, and how does this affect Targa's strategy? Donaldson: This doesn't create a concern. The Mont Belvieu price has to do the heavy lifting [in balancing the market] and it will over time. How quickly it responds, we'll see. We've focused a lot on China as a demand solution and that won't always be the case. There will be challenges but it still worked out in 2025. From a US perspective, it's about access to markets. Propane is a by-product so we have to keep responding. As a terminal operator, our view and the view of others who invest in export terminals is that you invest to ensure flow assurance. We're ultimately here to serve our producers — we move their products to end-users and let the market sort itself out. Targa takes low-pressure wet gas from the wellhead through to the gas plant, the natural gas liquids (NGLs) pipeline, the fractionator and eventually to export. So our view is driven by our volumes, whereas others may focus on third-party US volumes while maintaining connectivity to global demand. We'll continue to see investment in export capacity as long as production grows. It could become overbuilt but only if production flattens. WTI crude has sat in the mid-to-upper $50s/bl for months, and production is still growing. And even if oil growth slows, gas and NGLs will grow faster. At 3pc/yr oil growth, gas could grow by 5–6pc/yr, and NGLs can grow in the high single digits. So we see a strong future for continued production growth and that output has to find overseas markets. Is the shipping market ready for more dynamic and varied LPG trading routes? Sorensen: As long as you pay, you can move the ships wherever they're needed. The market is very open for business in that sense. If you look at the very large gas carrier (VLGC) market today, it's trading at around $70,000/d, which is historically very strong. And that reflects the supply and demand balance in the freight market from the US and the Middle East, inefficiencies in the market — typically surrounding the Panama Canal — and changing trade patterns. When you ship a US cargo to India or southeast Asia, it consumes a lot of shipping capacity, and we see that directly in freight rates. Export volumes from the US and the Middle East are growing, and you have those inefficiencies combined with new trade patterns that simply absorb more freight capacity. The big question is what will happen in the second half of this year and in 2027 as newbuild deliveries accelerate. You weigh that against projected export growth from the US and the Middle East, plus inefficiencies around bottlenecks like the Panama Canal. But the drivers of the VLGC market repeat themselves — they just play different roles at different times. So yes, the freight market can support these new trade patterns but they are absorbing more capacity, which is reflected in higher freight rates. You mention the Panama Canal — we have reported on a potential investment in a pipeline connecting one side of the canal to the other . Do you expect this project to materialise and what might it mean for shipowners? Sorensen: It raises a lot of logistical questions — how you'd use the canal, how you'd handle the bill of lading and so on. The capacity they're talking about for the pipeline is similar to the current number of VLGC transits — a little more than three ships a day. The question is whether the pipeline would be in addition to existing transits or whether it is intended to free up capacity for LNG carriers, container ships or other shipping segments. If the idea is to move LPG through the pipeline instead, that could be bullish for shipping. VLGCs would have to take the long route around South Africa to move between the US and Asia-Pacific. And you'd effectively need a shuttle fleet in the Caribbean moving LPG from the US to the Atlantic side of the canal, and another fleet on the Pacific side. That's an inefficient set-up and inefficiency absorbs shipping capacity. And that generally supports higher freight demand. The US benefits from a large amount of underground cavern storage space, some of which is fl exible NGL space. How does this storage capacity influence market dynamics? Donaldson: Mont Belvieu is a global hub because there's this massive, pure salt dome where the unique few that have a position can easily create a cavern shaped like a bottle. Each bottle can hold about 4mn bl and costs about $45mn–50mn to complete. Many of you [in the audience] have above-ground tanks, which are far more expensive per barrel or tonne. And within the Mont Belvieu area, there are many caverns and more that can be added. We probably are at 200mn-250mn bl of NGL storage capacity now, and these caverns are flexible — you can have one that services ethane one season and butane the next. The challenge is that as fractionation capacity grows, you need to move products in and out faster. There is capacity and room to add more, so having US inventory levels at 110mn-115mn bl of propane isn't an issue. It's about how to deal with products like ethane, the largest part of raw NGL supply, which may need more storage depending on usage. Ethane exports are becoming a bigger part of the picture as well. One of the biggest issues last year was the US government's requirement for a licence to export ethane to China . Storage was key in managing the delays experienced in exporting ethane, and the flexibility of US storage will continue to support strong trade growth. Enterprise Products and Energy Transfer have invested heavily in export capacity. Globally, ethane demand is growing. And no matter which NGL — ethane, propane, butane, natural gasoline — the next buyer is increasingly outside the US. Targa sells ethane domestically, some of which eventually gets exported — that's simply how the market works. Mont Belvieu operators are very interconnected. Is ethane shipping something BW LPG is interested in participating in? Sorensen: The very large ethane carrier and ethane markets operate very differently from the LPG market. It's not as commercialised, it's largely long-term time-charters — similar to how the LNG market was structured a decade ago. For us as a listed company, we operate a different business model. Our investors want exposure to the upside potential in the VLGC market. If we started adding ethane carriers, it would disrupt the business model we've presented to them, so it's not something we're considering at the moment. BW LPG's dual-fuel vessels have been a big part of the company's recent strategy. How have they affected operations? Sorensen: Dual-fuel technology has worked very well despite early teething issues . We took a slightly different approach from other shipping companies by retrofitting about 15 of our vessels and then adding four more through the Avance Gas transaction back in 2024. You save about $3,000–5,000/d burning LPG compared with compliant marine fuel, and you reduce your environmental footprint by roughly 20pc on CO2 and even more on other particulates. It's also effective to use the commodity you're shipping as fuel. That's something many alternative fuel and propulsion technologies still struggle to offer. It has essentially become the industry standard now. It's commercialised, which is important because it means there is scale — in production, spare parts, maintenance capacity and so on. So overall, the technology has proven to be a success. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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