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Weather risks support UK April gas price
Weather risks support UK April gas price
London, 6 March (Argus) — The potential for a cold snap to drive strong UK import demand in spring has helped to lift its gas prices to a premium to nearby markets this week, given the shift to a tighter global LNG balance. The UK NBP front-month price rising above neighbouring markets at least partly reflects the UK's heightened vulnerability to global LNG supply disruptions in the event of a cold snap, despite sufficient supply in the country under normal weather conditions. The UK March, April and May contracts have all moved above nearby markets this week from discounts previously, as traders reacted to the halt of transit through the strait of Hormuz and the shut-in of all Qatari LNG supply. The NBP front-month price closed at a 0.875p/th premium to the Dutch TTF on Thursday and was 2.15p/th above France's Peg and 1.26p/th above Belgium's ZTP. QatarEnergy holds long-term capacity at the South Hook and Isle of Grain terminals, so the heightened price reaction in the UK may be partly because of traders factoring in the loss of this supply. But the premium for the spring period may be largely down to weather risks. Given the UK's limited storage space relative to demand, the country is dependent on LNG imports to meet spikes in demand in the winter. And available LNG supply for Europe is poised to be low in April, given diversions to Asia. UK LNG sendout could only be a fraction of 15.8mn m³/d in April last year and the 40.6mn m ³/d three-year average for the month. If the UK were to face a cold snap in April, NBP prices might need to rise sharply to attract extra LNG supply to the UK and encourage firms to direct Norwegian pipeline gas to the UK ahead of other markets. UK gas consumption would average 152.2mn m³/d in April if the relationship between aggregate consumption and degree heating days (HDDs) is in line with that in April across the past three years and HDDs match the 10-year average. This would be up from 127.1mn m³/d in April last year. But a repeat of the coldest April in the past 10 years would boost consumption to 177.6mn m³/d. Domestic production will only cover part of this demand. Production could be 78.8mn m³/d in April, down from 84.6mn m³/d a year earlier, if it falls in line with the most recent projections from the North Sea Transition Authority. If Norwegian pipeline flows to the UK hold steady from their rate, according to nominations in the past three days, the UK would receive a net 88.6mn m³/d from Norway. Assuming barely any flow in either direction on the BBL and Interconnector pipelines — in line with 4-5 March — the UK would have supply in excess of consumption of 15.2mn m³/d in an average HDD scenario. But a cold April would leave 10.2mn m³/d unmet through domestic demand and pipeline flows. Even if UK storage was used to meet some of the supply gap, this is unlikely to be enough to cover the entire shortfall. The UK held 6.7TWh of gas in storage as of Friday morning. And additional maintenance at Norwegian and UK assets or weak renewable generation could further tighten the supply-demand balance for April. Norwegian production capacity constraints are planned at 9.5mn m³/d for April, up from 6.2mn m³/d in March but below 26.6mn m³/d a year earlier, according to Norwegian offshore operator Gassco. But additional unplanned maintenance may further weigh on flows. Meanwhile, UK gas grid operator National Gas expects 6mn m³/d of capacity to be unavailable at the Barrow gas terminal throughout April, according to a Remit message. Flows at the terminal averaged 300,000 m³/d in February and 1.7mn m³/d in April last year. And in a scenario with an extended period of Dunkelflaute — when cold, cloudy and still weather cuts renewable generation — gas consumption for power generation would rise sharply, which would further tighten the balance. By Lucas Waelbroeck Boix Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Dutch ACM obliges Nam to market Norg, Grijpskerk space
Dutch ACM obliges Nam to market Norg, Grijpskerk space
London, 25 February (Argus) — Dutch regulator ACM has ordered Nam to prepare to market gas storage capacity at the Norg and Grijpskerk sites for the 2026-27 storage year, in parallel to its negotiations with state-owned EBN to take over filling obligations. Nam must begin the process to market space at the two sites "immediately" and an arrangement must be in place by 1 April, according to ACM's binding obligation on Nam. ACM has imposed this binding course of conduct on Nam to ensure that market participants can access the storage facilities and to avoid risking security of supply in the 2026-27 winter. Nam, as owner of the sites, can make arrangements with firms to fill the sites in a timely manner, but if this does not happen then Nam is obliged to offer market participants access to the sites. Nam — held in equal shares by Shell and ExxonMobil — will take over both sites on 1 April following the dismantling of Gasterra, which has been the sites' sole capacity holder since 1997. Nam is already negotiating with EBN to take over filling duties for the facilities. If Nam and EBN reach an agreement in the near future, then Nam will no longer need to comply with this binding course of conduct. But it is unclear whether Nam will reach an agreement before 1 April, which creates a possibility that the Netherlands will miss its EU-imposed filling target, ACM said. The Netherlands must have at least 74pc of its storage filled from 1 October-1 December. "There is no time to first complete negotiations" and Nam must begin the process to market the capacities in parallel to the negotiations, ACM said. The storage space must be marketed on objective, transport and non-discriminatory terms that would ensure fair allocation and pricing. Nam must market this capacity through auctions or an open season. If there is plenty of available capacity, Nam can offer capacity on a first-come, first-served basis. If demand is higher than available space Nam must switch to an objective auction allocation. And Nam must prevent capacity hoarding by using mechanisms like use-it-or-lose-it. Nam must also publicly offer all unused or uncontracted capacity. The firm must offer multiple services, including long-term and short-term bookings, bundled and unbundled capacity, and firm and interruptible allocations. The contract terms cannot hamper competition and any capacity limits must be strictly based on technical restrictions of the facilities. Nam must also publish all relevant technical and commercial information for use of facilities, in line with other EU member states. Nam must charge a reasonable rate, based on historical costs and rates, ACM said. Nam has argued that Norg and Grijpskerk should not be treated as gas storage installations under Dutch law, claiming that ACM's legal basis for imposing third-party access is invalid. The firm also said ACM is misusing the binding obligation to enforce storage fill targets, rather than enhance market functioning, and warned that it would conflict with existing contractual obligations. Nam also said that technical limits make it unrealistic to enable new users — let alone multiple users — by 1 April, saying several required services simply cannot be delivered at such short notice. ACM rejected all of Nam's complaints. By Alejandro Moreano Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Santos agrees 200PJ gas sales deal with South Australia
Santos agrees 200PJ gas sales deal with South Australia
Sydney, 20 February (Argus) — Australian independent Santos will deliver about 20 PJ/yr (534mn m³/yr) to Whyalla steelworks under a 10-year binding term sheet signed with the South Australian (SA) state government. The total of 200PJ of gas will supply the 1.2mn t/yr Whyalla steelworks after it transitions into a low-emissions iron facility, subject to a gas supply agreement being signed by 30 June, Santos said on 20 February. Deliveries will start from 1 March 2030. Delivered ex-Moomba using indexed pricing with a prepayment structure, the deal will coincide with the expiry of Santos' Horizon contract with the 7.8mn t/yr Gladstone LNG joint venture that began in 2016. Santos' gas will enable Whyalla to deploy direct reduced iron technology to process magnetite ore into low-carbon iron, chief executive Kevin Gallagher said on 20 February, cutting emissions by about 50pc compared to the former coal-fired blast furnace operations. The steelworks were forced into administration on 19 February 2025 after SA's government passed laws to remove control of the plant from UK-based GFG Alliance. Australian steelmaker BlueScope is leading a consortium hoping to acquire the works , while the aid of more than A$2.5bn ($1.76bn) in subsidies is aimed at moving the works towards a low-emissions facility. The 20 PJ/yr Whyalla will draw on is about 30pc of Santos' current gas production from the Cooper basin, the Adelaide-based firm said. SA's Labor government previously planned to build a green hydrogen sector based at Whyalla but last year abandoned plans for a 250MW electrolyser and 200MW hydrogen-fired power station and instead redirected unspent funds to saving the steelworks. Australian think-tank Climate Energy Finance has been sceptical of the gas-led steel output strategy backed by the federal and state governments, due to Australia's uncompetitive domestic gas prices, it said. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s APA to expand gas pipeline network
Australia’s APA to expand gas pipeline network
Sydney, 19 February (Argus) — Australian gas pipeline operator APA will progress works to expand capacity on its gas network in the eastern states, increasing transmission between Australia's gas-rich northeast and relatively poorer southeast, where shortfalls are expected later this decade. Stage 3 of the East Coast Gas Grid (ECGG) expansion will go ahead, APA said in its results for the half-year to 31 December 2025 on 19 February, with A$480mn ($339mn) to go towards new compressors boosting capacity ahead of the 2028 winter months. The plan was first funded a year ago when A$35mn was earmarked for early works on stages 3, 4 and 5 of the ECGG expansion. Under ECGG expansion 3A, APA will build new compressors and undertake debottlenecking works on the 512 TJ/d (13.7mn m³/d) South West Queensland pipeline (SWQP) and the 590 TJ/d Moomba-Sydney pipeline (MSP). Capacity on the SWQP will rise by about 58 TJ/d, MSP by around 10 TJ/d and APA will deliver an expansion increasing the Young-Culcairn section's lateral capacity by about 39 TJ/d. A further A$220mn will be spent on ECGG 3B to buy pipe and progress a works programme for the proposed 340km, 800 TJ/d Bulloo Interlink, connecting the SWQP and the MSP between Queensland and New South Wales. The project is estimated to cost a total of A$800mn. But a final investment decision for ECGG 3B will depend on policy settings, Canberra's final response to the Gas Market Review and board approval. The projects align with identified market needs, APA said, and also support a necessary increase in gas-fired power generation to support the energy transitions. LNG vs pipeline The company's ambition to pipe more gas southwards may conflict with plans for LNG imports in southern Australia from next year. There are three proposed terminals, plus the Port Kembla Energy Terminal built by Squadron Energy aiming to bridge the identified gap in supply via seaborne imports. APA modelling shows gas delivered from Queensland into southern markets is "materially below the cost of imported LNG," the firm said, proposing that expanding pipelines and increasing northern Australia's output is a better solution than importing LNG. Argus ' Gladstone fob price, an LNG netback indicator calculated by subtracting freight and costs associated with production from the delivered price of LNG to Asia-Pacific, was A$13.65/GJ ($10.25/mn Btu) on 12 February, lower from A$24.46/GJ a year earlier. The AVX, the Argus assessment for month-ahead spot gas deliveries to Victoria, stood at A$11.367/GJ, down by about A$0.07/GJ on the week. Other companies are investing in projects designed to offset the predicted shortfall in southern states, particularly in Victoria where gas exploration spending rose by more than five-fold on the year in July-September 2025. Australian utility Origin this month pledged a further A$25mn for a planned gas storage facility in Victoria APA's revenue for July-December totalled A$1.614bn, slightly down from A$1.621bn over July-December 2024. Underlying net profit after tax was A$126mn, up from A$122mn a year earlier. By Tom Major APA's ECGG expansion plans Project Status Year complete Investment Capacity increase SWQP + MSP compression complete 2023-2024 A$300mn 25% increase across ECGG north to south MSEP conversion complete 2025 A$40mn 20 TJ/d from Moomba to Victoria or 25 TJ/d to Sydney MSP off-peak capacity expansion underway 2026 80–120 TJ/d summer capacity ECGG 3A FID taken Jun-Aug 2028 A$260mn SWQP: 58 TJ/d, MSP: 10 TJ/d, Young-Culcairn lateral: 39 TJ/d ECGG 3B pre-FID 2028 A$800mn 800 TJ/d north-south Future stages pre-FID 2029+ tba 450 TJ/d northern gas to Victoria, 500TJ storage — APA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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