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NY weighs new yardstick to set climate goals
NY weighs new yardstick to set climate goals
New York, 13 April (Argus) — New York governor Kathy Hochul (D) is asking state lawmakers for more time to reduce emissions. Potentially more important is how the state actually measures them. The state's leaders, at loggerheads over climate policy and other issues, have already blown past a deadline to agree to a new budget. Hochul frustrated progressives by pushing for changes to the state's 2019 climate law, which not only mandates deep emissions reductions but also includes a bespoke system for tracking climate impacts that discourages natural gas and some biofuels. New York requires a 40pc reduction in economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 from 1990 levels and an 85pc drop by 2050. But the state's unique emissions-accounting method effectively requires deeper cuts to emissions than targets suggest. Environmentalists say this system will speed New York's transition to renewables and leave the state less exposed to future oil supply shocks. But it also threatens higher near-term energy costs in a state that burns more oil for home heating than any other, where natural gas is the largest source of electricity and where driving predominates outside public transit-connected New York City. Hochul backed off prior efforts to change the GHG accounting rules. Now campaigning for re-election on a platform of making the high-cost state more affordable, she insists changes are necessary. Methane pain State law requires New York to track the warming of GHGs on a 20-year timeline, instead of the 100-year timeline used by nearly all other states. That difference means New York treats a tonne of methane, which packs a bigger punch than CO2 but dissipates in the atmosphere more quickly, as having around three times more climate impact than other states do. Under typical emissions accounting, New York's emissions in 2023 were 24pc below 1990 levels. But according to the state's unique system, they only fell by 14pc over that period. The difference reflects the state's reliance on natural gas for heat and power. New York's system then leaves fewer options to bridge that gap. While incentives in California have helped make renewable diesel more common there than its petroleum-based counterpart, New York treats many biofuels — even if made from waste — as akin to fossil fuels by factoring in tailpipe emissions but not some upstream benefits. Renewable diesel brought into New York would not just count as only slightly better than oil, but it would also count the same whether made from recycled cooking grease or from crops, according to detailed estimates in an energy plan released by state officials last year. New York would consider more production emissions in-state, effectively treating renewable diesel made locally as worse for the climate than imports. The reverse is true for renewable natural gas, which counts as producing negative emissions if made in-state — since turning rotting dairy manure into energy avoids methane emissions — but similar to fossil-fuel natural gas if made elsewhere. While the California system has its critics, the New York energy plan says explicitly that the GHG accounting required by law "creates an incomplete picture" of biofuels' climate impacts. But the system is by design reflecting the wishes of progressive lawmakers who helped pass these requirements into law before Hochul took office, as well as those of environmental justice groups that hold sway in the Democratic-controlled state. Advocates want to stop burning any fuels that worsen air quality and think states like California have overstated the climate benefits of natural gas and biofuels at the expense of efforts to electrify cars and homes. Hochul, backed by business groups, disagrees. A recent memo prepared for her by a state energy agency estimated that polluters will have to pay far more for their emissions than they do in other states — as much as $180/tonne by 2030 — because of "differing accounting standards" and "inflexible" targets, and that fuel prices would spike. Carbon market cop out That memo gets at the core of the debate: rising energy costs are taking precedence in Hochul's policy calculus, putting the future of a carbon market in question. A task force of policy advisors in 2022 recommended a carbon market as the best option to achieve state climate targets. The program, similar to systems in California and Washington, would require fuel suppliers, industrial facilities and others to buy a dwindling pool of carbon allowances from the state. But the Hochul administration missed a 2024 legal deadline to have that plan in place and has been vague on when it will release even draft rules. After environmental groups sued, a state court directed the Hochul administration to release carbon market regulations . Hochul has since been more direct about her concerns and called for punting the rollout of the market to 2030. Environmentalists resent Hochul's argument that New York's targets are infeasible when her administration is slow-walking the rollout of a plan to achieve them. But they recognize the power governors wield in New York's mostly closed-door budget process. One potential compromise that has been discussed among advocates is implementing a carbon market with more typical emissions-accounting rules, while preserving the 20-year warming timeline for other state programs. This could address cost concerns while containing the backlash from climate advocates. It could also leave the door open for linkage with other carbon markets, which would be exceedingly difficult without aligning rules across different programs. Without changes, biofuel supporters also fear that a state "clean transportation standard" that regulators are studying could cut out many of the fuels rewarded by California. Lawmakers likewise have expressed resistance to sweeping changes. Senator Environmental Conservation Committee chair Pete Harckham (D), an influential voice on climate, has signaled some openness, however, to "modest adjustments". "We're committed to working with the governor to find reasonable solutions here, but in my humble opinion, a complete rollback of the state's climate law is untenable," Harckham said last week. By Cole Martin and Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Finnish, Baltic gas demand hits five-year high in 1Q
Finnish, Baltic gas demand hits five-year high in 1Q
London, 9 April (Argus) — Combined gas demand in Finland and the Baltic states climbed to a five-year high in the first quarter as colder-than-normal weather lifted consumption across the region. Total gas consumption in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania rose to 19.4TWh in January-March from 15TWh a year earlier, the highest for any quarter since January 2021. The energy crisis of 2022 changed the region's supply patterns dramatically ( see graph, data and download ). Consumption increased year on year in all four countries as abnormally cold weather boosted gas use for heating and power generation. Estonia recorded the strongest growth of 40pc, with consumption rising to 1.8TWh in January-March. Demand in Latvia rose by 38pc to 5.2TWh, while Finnish demand was up by 31pc, reaching 5.61TWh, and Lithuanian demand up by 20pc on the year at 6.8TWh. Minimum temperatures averaged -7.4°C across Helsinki, Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius — well below the -2.3°C average in January-March 2025 and the -3.8°C long-term average ( see daily lows table ). Gas-fired output across the four countries rose to an average of 105GW in the first quarter, from 73GW in the period in 2025, Fraunhofer ISE data show ( see gas-fired power graph ). LNG terminals reduced reliance on storage in winter The region is now almost entirely dependent on LNG imports, with only limited pipeline gas from Poland. The region received 21 LNG cargoes in the first quarter, up from 10 in the same period last year. Of these, 53pc came from Norway and 29pc from the US. The rest came from other countries, with no deliveries from Qatar, reducing the region's exposure to Middle East disruptions . The region is a premium market, compared with northwest Europe, because of harsher weather and the need for icebreakers during peak cold periods, which helped attract LNG cargoes, even during months of high global demand, a regional trader told Argus . Combined sendout from the Inkoo, Hamina and Klaipeda LNG terminals totalled 13.2TWh in the first quarter, up from 9TWh in 2025. The region became an importer from Poland in January-March, with net pipeline imports totalling 513GWh, compared with exports of 426GWh in the period in 2025. Stockdraw from Latvia's Incukalns, the region's only storage facility, totalled 6.2TWh in the first quarter, down from 7TWh a year earlier. Incukalns held 5.9TWh on 7 April, down from 9.01TWh on the year, according to GIE transparency platform data. Regional grid operators have launched a consultation to improve the efficiency of the Amber gas corridor — the link connecting the Finnish 3.8mn t/yr Inkoo and Lithuanian 2.9mn t/yr Klaipeda LNG terminals with the Baltic states and Poland to Ukraine. The utilisation rate of Finnish LNG terminals increased to 20pc in the first quarter from 7pc in the quarter in 2025, GIE data show. The 2.9mn t/yr Klaipeda LNG terminal operated at 92pc utilisation in January-March, up from 68pc in 2025. Klaipeda operator KN Energies had planned to increase the terminal's capacity by 1.25bn m³/yr to 5bn m³/yr if the results of the long-term auction confirm market interest. The Latvian regulator has proposed equal tariffs at all terminals , which may incentivise firms to shift usage toward Finnish terminals. By Victoria Dovgal Daily lows in 1Q °C Period Finland Lithuania Latvia Estonia 2025 -6.2 -1.6 -0.1 -1.6 2026 -10.4 -7.1 -5.7 -6.3 Long-term average -8.4 -2.7 -1.3 -2.9 — Speedwell Climate FinBalt gas demand by country in 1Q TWh Finnish and Baltic gas generation MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia selects renewable projects for aid scheme
Australia selects renewable projects for aid scheme
Sydney, 9 April (Argus) — The Australian Labor government has selected two renewable energy projects for a fast-track program in a bid to improve the country's long-term fuel security because Iran's effective blockade of the strait of Hormuz raised supply concerns across Australia. The Investor Front Door pilot program will streamline approvals for projects deemed of national significance, including low-carbon liquid fuel company HAMR Energy's proposed Portland Renewable Fuels project in Victoria, the government said today. The project will use local forestry residue to produce 300,000 t/yr of low-carbon methanol. The methanol can be used directly as a shipping fuel or converted into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at its proposed 140mn litre/yr methanol-to-jet facility in South Australia. HAMR said its selection for the pilot program will help attract investment and allow the firm to work closely with the government, as it pursues a final investment decision. The second renewable energy project selected was the Murchison Green Hydrogen project in Western Australia (WA). The project is a green hydrogen plant producing large-scale green ammonia using wind and solar. Ardea Resources' Kalgoorlie nickel project in WA — one of the largest nickel and cobalt resources in Australia — and New Energy Transport's Wilton electric freight hub were also selected to support supply chain stability. By Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
TTF front month drops on ceasefire, holds above winter
TTF front month drops on ceasefire, holds above winter
London, 8 April (Argus) — Near-term prices at the Dutch TTF gas hub fell in today's morning trading session on news of a two-week ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran and efforts to resume LNG production in Qatar. The front-month price opened at €42.90/MWh, 18pc lower than the previous day's close, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire of attacks . The price then rose above €45/MWh as traders corrected their positions, after the initial TTF open was seen as too low, market participants told Argus . The front-month contract then plunged at 13:15 BST on Bloomberg news that QatarEnergy was mobilising efforts to resume and ramp up LNG production at Ras Laffan, prompted by the ceasefire announcement, and the possibility of reopening the strait of Hormuz. Trump said he would "suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks", subject to co-operation from Iran. Iranian foreign affairs minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that "for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the strait of Hormuz will be possible via co-ordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations". The front-month contract stood at €43.425/MWh at the time of writing, its lowest since 27 February, but well above the €31.51/MWh on 27 February — the day before the conflict started. But despite the reduced prices pointing to a potential easing of supply, it is unclear whether the US and Iran will honour their agreement, as the US has already bombed an Iranian oil refinery since the ceasefire was announced. The TTF May price has dropped the most of any contract, as keeping the passage via Hormuz open in the coming two weeks could allow LNG cargoes to arrive to Europe from May at the earliest. And even if the cargoes were delivered to Asia, stronger supply in the Pacific could reduce that region's appetite for Atlantic basin spot cargoes, in turn leaving more of this LNG available for Europe. Winter price remains at a discount to summer months The ceasefire news weighed more heavily on contracts for summer delivery than on the winter 2026-27 price. A potential return of LNG supply transiting the strait of Hormuz to the global balance would result in more available supply in Europe over the summer. That said, the supply outlook for this summer remains tight because of competition with Asia during Qatar's production ramp-up and structurally lower LNG output from Ras Laffan due to earlier attacks. And it is unclear if the ceasefire will extend past the two-week mark. That said, summer contracts' premiums to the coming winter have narrowed throughout today's session, with the May-winter 2026-27 spread narrowing by about €0.70/MWh from the previous close ( see table ). The EU has net injected 614 GWh/d over 1-7 April, and storage sites stood at 28.8pc full. Storage sites entered the gas summer at its lowest fill level since 2022, and have to be 90pc full by 1 October-1 December to meet EU-mandated filling targets. Abundant LNG supply over the rest of the summer could aid the filling task, and alleviate some of the pressure on the summer months' contracts. Further out, the 2027 contract was at €35.84/MWh at about 14:00 BST, 12pc lower than on Tuesday's close at €40.905/MWh. This could point to easing concerns over tight supply over coming years. The 2028-30 yearly contracts also fell, but the fall was less stark. By Alejandro Moreano Summer month-winter spreads €/MWh Contracts Argus close on 7 April Ice trading on 8 April* May-winter 2026-27 1.380 0.683 June-winter 2026-27 1.470 0.853 July-winter 2026-27 1.435 1.015 August-winter 2026-27 1.355 0.848 September-winter 2026-27 1.245 0.848 *closest spread taken at the time of writing — Intercontinental exchange (Ice), Argus TTF trading on 8 April €/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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