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Turkey could be LNG gateway for east Europe
Turkey could be LNG gateway for east Europe
London, 13 November (Argus) — Turkey has higher LNG regasification capacity than Greece, but the country's rising consumption is weighing on excess gas for export and its closed market creates challenges for traders, while Greece faces grid congestion issues but has promising investments and a more open market. Greece has a 5.4mn t/yr LNG import terminal at Revithoussa, which could feed the grid with a maximum of 82 TWh/yr if operating at full capacity. Additionally, there is a 4.3mn t/yr terminal at Alexandroupolis, with a theoretical capacity of 66 TWh/yr. Combined, Greece's LNG processing capacity totals 9.7mn t/yr, equal to 148 TWh/yr, or — using Desfa's conversion rate — about 12.7bn m³/yr. But both terminals operate at much lower utilisation rates. Revithoussa supplied 18.2TWh to the grid throughout 2024, averaging 50 GWh/d. Traders said that LNG prices were less competitive than Russian pipeline gas during that year. And Revithoussa's sendout increased to 79 GWh/d during the first 10 months of this year, which, if sustained for the full year, would be roughly 29TWh. While low sendout indicates spare capacity at Revithoussa, Greek infrastructure constraints remain. The country faces compression limitations both south-north and east-west. With the recently added compression station at Komotini, Desfa announced that northward export capacity has been raised to 8.5bn m³/yr, or about 99 TWh/yr. This figure is the maximum export capacity at the Sidirokastro and Komotini interconnection points, but delivering gas to these points can still be problematic. For Revithoussa supply, the Ampelia compressor station, located in central Greece, is critical. Desfa had stated that this project would be completed in the last quarter of this year, but no update has yet been provided. And Alexandroupolis went offline for extended maintenance in January this year soon after it started operations. Its operator was only able to increase its maximum sendout capacity to 75pc of its technical limit by late October. In any event, a bottleneck persists in the northern Greek system. Capacity at the Amfitriti point, where Alexandroupolis supply enters the grid, will be capped at 44 GWh/d through the 2025-30 gas years — about 16 TWh/yr or 1.4bn m³/yr — according to Desfa . Turkey as an alternative supply route? Turkey currently operates five LNG import terminals, three FSRU-based and two onshore facilities, with a total sendout capacity of 161mn m³/d. Overall sendout capacity equals 625 TWh/yr, more than four times Greece's total, based on Turkish state-run Botas' conversion rate. The Strandzha 1/Malkoclar point, which directly connects the Turkish to the Bulgarian grid, has a technical outflow capacity of 43 TWh/yr and remains underutilised. Firms exported a total of 16.3TWh at the point to Bulgaria in the first 10 months of this year, and 18.8TWh in all of 2024. Turkish energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar and senior Botas executives have stated multiple times that they can increase the capacity two to four times in a short period, provided there are long-term commitments from potential European buyers. This suggests an export potential of 10bn m³/yr in the short term, in theory exceeding Greek export capacity. That said, record high Turkish consumption in the past winter , and scope for further growth might weigh on excess supply for export. Turkey's main drawbacks include a closed market and heavy dominance by a single actor. Although regulator EPDK maintains a regulatory framework on paper comparable to western Europe, according to many traders, Botas holds clear dominance in practice. Transparency remains low, and the lack of a free trade forces companies to rely on Botas. These factors lowered Turkey's rating in Energy Traders Europe's 2025 report , while Greece rose. Bulgarian transit Bulgaria is working to develop its south-north transport capacity. Bulgarian state-owned supplier Bulgargaz and Botas signed a 13-year deal in January 2023 for Bulgarian access to Turkish LNG terminals. Bulgargaz can transfer up to 1.5bn m³/yr of gas from the Turkish transmission system to Bulgaria through Malkoclar under this agreement, but this agreement has occasionally been criticised and underutilised . And the inflow capacity from Greece via the Kulata/Sidirokasto will initially reach 37.2 TWh/yr, equal to 3.5bn m³/yr, over the next few years, according to the Bulgarian operator's most recent 10-year plan . The Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria also provides 3bn m³/yr, but its capacity will not increase in the short term . This means that Bulgaria is initially targeting import capacity of 6.5bn m³/yr from Greece. By Ugur Yildirim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US EPA grants more waivers from biofuel quotas
US EPA grants more waivers from biofuel quotas
New York, 7 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today granted small refiners even more exemptions from federal biofuel blend mandates, raising the stakes of a debate about whether larger oil companies should shoulder more of the burden. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted two full exemptions from the program's annual blend requirements, halved obligations in response to 12 petitions, and denied two others. The agency requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend biofuels or buy credits from those who do, though small facilities that process 75,000 b/d or less can request program waivers that can save them tens of millions of dollars. The agency used the same methodology as its sweeping August decision , which responded to a historic backlog of petitions and granted most refiners some relief from years of mandates. New petitions poured in afterwards, including from refiners that had not requested waivers in years. And more decisions could come soon, with EPA committing Friday to "address new petitions as quickly as possible" and to try to meet a legal requirement to decide requests within 90 days. Farm and biofuel groups fear that widespread waivers curb demand for their products and have lobbied the Trump administration to follow through on a plan to make oil companies without exemptions blend more biofuels in future years to offset past exemptions for their smaller rivals. Particularly for higher-cost products like renewable diesel and biogas, any dip in demand can prompt biorefineries to slash output. The debate has intensified in recent weeks after a refiner granted generous exemptions in August announced plans to convert a renewable diesel unit back to crude. "The impact on biofuel and agriculture markets will be devastating" without compensating for these exemptions in future biofuel quotas, said Geoff Cooper, president of the ethanol lobby Renewable Fuels Association. EPA already planned on estimating future exemptions from 2026-2027 requirements when finalizing biofuel mandates those years. But the agency has added more work to its plate with a subsequent plan to force large oil refiners to compensate for either all or half of the biofuel volumes lost to actual and expected exemptions from 2023-2025 requirements. The impact of older exemptions is less significant since the credits are expired. The challenge for EPA is that small refiners can submit new or revised petitions at any time, including for years-old mandates. That makes it hard for EPA to accurately forecast future exemptions, and biofuel groups have feared that the agency could muddle the effects of its "reallocation" plan by underestimating volumes ultimately lost to program waivers. Indeed, EPA with its Friday decisions has already waived more requirements than it predicted earlier this year. The agency last forecast that exemptions from 2023 and 2024 mandates would amount to around 1.4bn Renewable Identification Number credits (RINs) of lost demand — but now, the waivers have already reduced obligations those years by 1.92bn RINs, according to program data. If EPA sticks to its plans, that means large refiners will have to blend an even greater share in future years than expected. But if the Trump administration waters down its reallocation idea, biofuel demand could sink more than previously forecast too. There is also the risk that EPA underestimates exemptions for the 2025 compliance year. EPA last forecast that exemptions from those requirements will amount to 780mn RINs of lost demand but has not yet decided any of the 12 pending petitions for that year. Many more requests are likely. Small refiners add to their winnings The August exemptions were a windfall for some oil companies. HF Sinclair, which owns multiple small refineries, last week reported $115mn from lower compliance costs as well as a $56mn indirect benefit from "commercial optimization" of its RIN credit position. And HF Sinclair won more Friday, winning full waivers from 2023 and 2024 biofuel mandates for the "east" section of a larger 125,000 b/d complex in Tulsa, Oklahoma that before September had not previously requested relief in at least three years. The company also won partial relief for two other units from 2021 mandates. Phillips 66 won four years of partial relief for its 66,000 b/d Montana facility, as did Big West Oil for its 35,000 b/d Utah plant. Silver Eagle won exemptions from 2023 blend mandates for two smaller units it owns in Wyoming and Utah. The only Friday denials were for Chevron's 45,000 b/d Utah refinery, which applied for the first time in years just last month. But the increasingly generous relief for small refiners is likely to provoke further backlash from larger oil companies, which argue that making them blend more biofuels is anticompetitive and illegal. EPA is months behind schedule on setting biofuel mandates for 2026 and 2027 and has a deadline Friday to tell a court more about how its reallocation plan affects its timeline. Biofuel groups have asked the court to force the agency to finalize program updates by year-end. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s Renovabio upheld by supreme court justice
Brazil’s Renovabio upheld by supreme court justice
Sao Paulo, 7 November (Argus) — Brazilian Supreme Court justice Nunes Marques has issued two votes rejecting constitutional challenges to Renovabio's biofuels program. The cases — ADI 7596, filed by the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD) in February 2024, and ADI 7617, filed by the Democratic Labour Party (PDT) in April 2024 — questioned the legality and fairness of mandatory carbon reduction targets imposed on fossil fuel distributors. In both decisions, the minister dismissed claims of discrimination and disproportion, affirming that Renovabio complies with constitutional principles such as equality, free enterprise, and environmental protection. He emphasized that the program's costs are ultimately borne by fuel consumers, not distributors, and that the policy aligns with Brazil's climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. Marques also rejected arguments that Renovabio's program was improperly designed to benefit private interests or lacked legislative legitimacy. He defended the program's structure, including the use of Cbio decarbonization credits, as a market-based mechanism to incentivize biofuels without public subsidies. With the votes now public, the Supreme Court will deliberate the merits of both cases. A majority ruling is required to confirm or overturn the constitutionality of the program. By Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Prices rise in French biomethane RGGO auction
Prices rise in French biomethane RGGO auction
London, 6 November (Argus) — The European Energy Exchange (EEX) nearly sold out of available French biomethane renewable gas guarantees of origin (RGGOs) at its November auction, with average prices reflecting those in the over-the-counter (OTC) market since the August auction. As the final auction of 2025, this completes the average 2025 auction price for French RGGO taxes. All but 1MWh of the offered 144GWh of RGGOs were sold in the 5 November auction for a weighted average price of €13.98/MWh. EEX calculated the reference price for the auction at €13.96/MWh. Prices averaged €12.18/MWh in the previous auction, when 107GWh of RGGOs traded in August. Initially, 147GWh produced in March-June was eligible to go into the auction . Three French municipalities pre-empted 2.98GWh of the volumes before the auction, up from 2.16GWh from one municipality before the August auction. Argus assessed French uncertified RGGOs for 2025 production at €13.90/MWh on 30 October. Bids for French uncertified RGGOs had been around €12.50/MWh at the time of the previous auction. Certified, ETS-eligible RGGOs did not sell at a premium to uncertified or non-ETS eligible volumes. As in previous auctions, EEX cannot transfer ownership of the Proof of Sustainability for any volumes sold, which limits their use for compliance. For volumes sold in the OTC market, Argus assessed certified, ETS-eligible French RGGOs from any feedstock at a €9.10/MWh premium to uncertified equivalent. The French government now applies a floor for declared tax levels for 75pc of the sale of RGGOs that are not used in transport. This is based on 75pc of the average reference prices from auctions the previous year to the production. The average of the EEX reference prices for the four 2025 auctions is €10.86/MWh, which would mean a floor of €8.14/MWh. Argus assessed 2026 vintage uncertified RGGOs at €16/MWh on 30 October. Only RGGOs from subsidy-supported biomethane, where the subsidy contract was signed after 9 November 2020, are auctioned on the EEX. Around 405GWh of biomethane RGGOs were auctioned in 2025. By Emma Tribe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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